NFL

NFL Divisional Round Betting: 49ers vs Seahawks Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Matchup Analysis

The 49ers just lost George Kittle to a torn Achilles. Fred Warner is still out with an ankle injury. Nick Bosa has been done since Week 3 with a torn ACL. Now they're heading to Seattle, where the Seahawks already destroyed them 13-3 in Week 18 and held Christian McCaffrey to 2.9 yards per carry. This is a bloodbath waiting to happen.

January 22, 2026

Quick Answer

Best bet: Seahawks -7 (-110) — Seattle dominated 13-3 in Week 18, 49ers lost George Kittle (torn Achilles), Fred Warner OUT, Nick Bosa OUT all season

Best total play: Under 45 (-110) — Last meeting had 16 total points, 7 of last 9 H2H under 45, Seattle's defense elite at home

Best player prop: Christian McCaffrey Under 69.5 rushing yards (-115) — Held to 23 yards (2.9 YPC) vs. Seahawks Week 18, Seattle allows 91.9 rush YPG (3rd-best)

Biggest mistake: Betting 49ers based on brand name — San Francisco decimated by injuries (Kittle, Warner, Bosa all OUT)

Pro tip: Seahawks are 12-5 ATS this season (70.6%), while 49ers are 3-2 ATS as 7+ underdogs but face tougher environment

The Matchup

Here's what we're working with Saturday night:

Who's Playing: No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (12-5) @ No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

When: Saturday, January 17, 2026, 8:00 PM ET

Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington

Watch: FOX

This NFC Divisional Round matchup features division rivals meeting for the third time this season. Seattle dominated the regular season finale 13-3 at San Francisco to clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed and division title, holding Christian McCaffrey to just 2.9 yards per carry.

The 49ers advanced past Philadelphia 23-19 in the Wild Card round, but lost star tight end George Kittle to a torn Achilles that required immediate surgery. San Francisco also remains without Fred Warner (ankle) and Nick Bosa (ACL, out since Week 3). They're a MASH unit at this point.

Where the Lines Are

Here's what the books are offering:

Spread: 49ers +7 (-110) | Seahawks -7 (-110)

Moneyline: 49ers +266 to +290 | Seahawks -332 to -360

Total: 44.5-45 points (Over -110 / Under -110)

The line opened at Seahawks -6, quickly bet up to -7 with sharp action recognizing Seattle's health advantage and home-field edge. The total has come down from 46.5 to 45, driven by sharp money expecting a defensive slugfest.

What the Smart Money Is Doing

Sharp money moved fast on the Seahawks. The line opened at -6 and jumped to -7 within hours. That's sharp bettors recognizing the injury mismatch and home-field advantage.

The total dropped from 46.5 to 45, which is a key number. That's sharp action on the under, expecting a defensive battle like Week 18 (16 total points).

Key trends:

Seahawks 12-5 ATS this season (70.6%)
49ers 11-7 ATS but 3-2 as 7+ underdog
7 of last 9 meetings went under 45 points
Week 18 had only 16 combined points (13-3 Seattle)
Seattle 7-1 at home this season
49ers without Kittle, Warner, Bosa

Breaking Down Both Teams

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle earned the NFC's top seed with a 14-3 record, securing their first playoff bye since 2014 and first No. 1 seed since 2014. Mike Macdonald's defense has been historic in year one.

Defensive dominance

The Seahawks allow 17.2 PPG (fewest in NFL). They're 3rd in rush defense (91.9 YPG) and 1st in third-down defense (32.1%). They held McCaffrey to 23 yards on 2.9 YPC in Week 18. They allowed only 16 total points combined in their Week 18 win (13-3). They allow a 50% red zone TD rate (5th-best in NFL).

Sam Darnold's concerns

Darnold made NFL history becoming the first QB to win 14+ games and throw 4,000+ yards in consecutive seasons with different teams. He posted 4,048 yards, 25 TDs, and 14 INTs this season (67.7% completion).

But he struggled in the 2024 Wild Card vs. the Rams with 9 sacks, a 27-9 loss, 166 yards, and 0 TDs. He led the NFL with 20 turnovers this season (14 INTs, 6 fumbles). His numbers dipped late with 8 TDs and 8 INTs over the last 8 games (though the team went 7-1).

Offensive weapons

Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL in receiving yards (1,793 yards, 119 catches, 10 TDs). Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet combined for 171 rush yards in Week 18 vs. the 49ers. The offense managed in Week 18 without flashy stats and won 13-3 on defense and the run game.

Injuries

TE Lucas Krull (foot) is OUT. FS Coby Bryant (knee) and TE AJ Barner (hip) will play with full participation.

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco (12-5) advanced past Philadelphia 23-19 but lost George Kittle to a season-ending torn Achilles in the second quarter. The 49ers have been decimated by injuries all season, losing three All-Pros for extended periods.

The injury catastrophe

OUT:

George Kittle (TE): Torn Achilles vs. Eagles, surgery completed, out for playoffs and likely 2026
Fred Warner (LB): Ankle (broke/dislocated Week 6), will NOT be activated for Divisional Round
Nick Bosa (DE): Torn ACL Week 3 vs. Cardinals, out since September
Ji'Ayir Brown (S): Hamstring

Questionable:

Ricky Pearsall (WR): Knee (limited practice)
Dee Winters (LB): Ankle
Luke Gifford (LB): Quad

The 49ers are playing with backup linebackers Eric Kendricks and Garret Wallow (signed Nov. 29 and Dec. 8) filling in for Warner, Tatum Bethune, Nick Martin, Winters, and Gifford. This is a disaster.

Offensive struggles without Kittle

In Week 18 vs. the Seahawks (with healthy Kittle), the 49ers scored only 3 points on 173 total yards. Now they face the same defense without Kittle, who averaged 65 catches for 862 yards and 8 TDs in 15 career games vs. Seattle.

Christian McCaffrey struggled vs. Seattle's elite run defense with 23 rush yards on 8 carries (2.9 YPC) and 34 receiving yards in Week 18. McCaffrey has been underwhelming this season with 1,202 yards on 303 attempts (3.9 YPC), the lowest efficiency of any 300+ attempt RB since 2010.

Quarterback situation

Brock Purdy threw for 2,167 yards, 20 TDs, and 10 INTs in 9 games (69.4% completion). He threw for only 127 yards vs. the Seahawks in Week 18, his worst game of the season. Mac Jones is the backup with 2,151 yards, 13 TDs, and 6 INTs in 11 games (69.6% completion).

Best Bets & Picks

Spread Pick: Seahawks -7 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The injury mismatch is massive. The 49ers are without Kittle, Warner, and Bosa while the Seahawks are relatively healthy. Seattle won 13-3 in Week 18, holding McCaffrey to 2.9 YPC.

The Seahawks are 7-1 at home this season. They're 12-5 ATS (70.6%) while the 49ers are 11-7 ATS but 3-2 as 7+ underdog. The bye week rest gives Seattle a full week to prepare while the 49ers played a physical Wild Card game.

CBS SportsLine simulated 10,000 times and sides with Seahawks -7. Most experts favor the Seahawks covering. Multiple projection systems have Seattle winning 28-19 or similar margins, suggesting the Seahawks cover -7 comfortably.

Look, the 49ers had a nice season, but they're done. Without Kittle, Warner, and Bosa, they can't compete with the #1 seed at home. The Seahawks are going to pound the rock with Walker and Charbonnet, and Darnold will manage the game. This is a blowout.

Recommended Bet: 3-unit MAX play at -7 or better

Total Pick: Under 45 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 18 had 16 combined points (13-3 Seattle win). 7 of the last 9 meetings went under 45 points between these teams. The previous 2025 matchup in Week 1 had 30 combined points.

The line dropped from 46.5 to 45, driven by sharp under action. Seattle allows 17.2 PPG (1st in NFL), and the 49ers are without offensive weapons. The 49ers scored only 3 points vs. Seattle with a healthy Kittle. Now they're without him.

Divisional Round games are often slower-paced with fewer possessions. Most sharp bettors are backing the under given injuries and the Week 18 result. CBS SportsLine model projects 49 combined points, suggesting a slight over, but historical trends and current injuries favor the under.

Both teams are going to try to control the clock and keep it on the ground. This isn't a shootout. Cash the under.

Recommended Bet: 3-unit MAX play at 45 or lower

Moneyline Value: Seahawks ML -350 (Half-Unit Play) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

At -350, the Seahawks offer decent value for bettors who want to avoid the spread. Seattle's 7-1 home record, bye week rest, and the 49ers' injury situation make this a safe play for conservative bettors. If you don't want to sweat a touchdown, just take the Seahawks to win straight up.

Player Props: Best Bets

Christian McCaffrey Under 69.5 Rushing Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

McCaffrey rushed for only 23 yards on 2.9 YPC vs. the Seahawks in Week 18. Seattle ranks 3rd in rush defense (91.9 YPG allowed). McCaffrey's efficiency is down all season with 3.9 YPC on 303 attempts (worst among 300+ attempt RBs since 2010).

His longest gain from scrimmage was only 9 yards in Week 18. Seattle's defense stuffed him in Week 1 too with 22 carries for 69 yards. The 49ers will be playing from behind, forcing more pass attempts.

Career vs. the Seahawks, McCaffrey averages 103.9 YPG, but recent struggles suggest regression. Without Kittle drawing coverage attention, Seattle will stack the box and dare Purdy to beat them.

Odds: -115 at most books

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Smith-Njigba led the NFL in receiving yards (1,793 yards, 119 catches). He averages 105.5 receiving YPG this season. The strong connection with Darnold developed all season.

The 49ers' secondary is weakened with Ji'Ayir Brown OUT and Warner (LB coverage help) OUT. Smith-Njigba is Darnold's security blanket in big games. He posted a 9-124-0 line on 13 targets vs. the 49ers in Week 1.

Odds: -114

Sam Darnold Under 237.5 Passing Yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Darnold threw for only 198 yards in Week 18 vs. the 49ers (20/26, 0 TDs). Seattle will lean on the run game with a lead, limiting Darnold's volume. Game script favors the under with the Seahawks likely building a lead early and running the clock late.

Darnold's efficiency improved late season with 8.5 YPA, suggesting fewer attempts needed. In his 2024 playoff disaster vs. the Rams, he threw for only 166 yards.

Odds: -110 to -115

Brock Purdy Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-114) ⭐⭐

Purdy averaged 240.8 passing YPG in 9 games this season. The 49ers will be playing from behind, forcing pass attempts. Without Kittle, volume must increase to Jennings, Robinson, and Pearsall.

He posted a 148.8 passer rating vs. the Eagles in his career (314 yards, 4 TDs). The line is set 19 yards below his season average, so value exists.

Risk: He threw only 127 yards vs. the Seahawks in Week 18, his worst game of the season.

Odds: -114

Kenneth Walker III + Zach Charbonnet Combined Rushing Yards Over 135.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

The duo combined for 171 rushing yards in Week 18 vs. the 49ers. The Seahawks will run to control the clock with a lead. The 49ers' run defense without Warner and Bosa is vulnerable. Game script heavily favors the Seattle rushing attack.

Odds: -110 (check your book for combined props)

How the Seahawks Win This Game

Seattle needs to establish the run game early with Walker III and Charbonnet against the Warner-less LB corps. Darnold must protect the ball and avoid the 2024 playoff turnover disaster.

The defense needs to stuff McCaffrey like Week 18 and force Purdy into obvious passing downs. Control time of possession and limit the 49ers' offensive snaps.

The home-field advantage is massive

The Seahawks are 7-1 at home this season. The crowd at Lumen Field will be electric for the first Divisional Round game in years. The 49ers are banged up and playing without three All-Pros. Seattle is going to dominate.

The 49ers' Best Shot

McCaffrey must exceed 2.9 YPC efficiency from Week 18. Purdy needs to throw for 250+ yards to overcome Kittle's absence. The defense must generate 2+ turnovers from Darnold (he has 20 turnovers this season). Special teams or a defensive TD provides a short field.

But the reality is the 49ers are too banged up. Without Kittle, Warner, and Bosa, they can't compete with the #1 seed at home. The likely script: Seattle builds a 14-3 halftime lead, controls the second half with the run game, and wins 24-13, covering -7 easily.

Final Prediction

Score: Seahawks 27, 49ers 16

ATS Winner: Seahawks -7 ✓

Total: Under 45 ✓

The Seahawks' dominant defense, home-field advantage, and rest edge prove too much for an injury-ravaged 49ers squad. Sam Darnold throws for 220 yards and 2 TDs while avoiding turnovers. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet combine for 160 rushing yards.

Christian McCaffrey is held to 45 rushing yards on 3.1 YPC without Kittle drawing coverage attention. Brock Purdy throws for 235 yards and 1 TD but cannot overcome the talent disparity. Seattle advances to host the NFC Championship.

Confidence levels:

Seahawks -7: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Under 45: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Seahawks ML -350: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Extremely high confidence but poor value)

This is a max-bet spot on Seahawks -7 and Under 45. The injury mismatch (49ers without Kittle, Warner, Bosa), Seattle's 7-1 home record and bye week rest, and sharp line movement from -6 to -7 create one of the strongest edges of Divisional Round weekend. Load up on the Seahawks spread, hammer the under, and focus on Christian McCaffrey Under 69.5 rushing yards as your best player prop.