NFL Divisional Round Betting: Bills vs Broncos Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Player Props

Quick Answer

Best bet: Broncos -1.5 (-110) — Denver 17-3 in last 20 games, 7-1 at home, Bills banged up in secondary

Best total play: Under 46 (-110) — Line dropped from 46.5 to 46, both defenses strong in red zone, playoff pace favors lower scoring

Best player prop: James Cook Over 77.5 rushing yards (-110) — Cleared it in 8 of last 10 road games, models project mid-80s

Biggest mistake: Overreacting to Allen's ceiling and ignoring his road playoff profile and Denver's altitude/home edge

Pro tip: In near pick'em playoff games at altitude, market often understates 4Q home-field edge — Denver hit 2H moneyline in 8 of last 9 home games

The Matchup

Here's what we're working with Saturday afternoon:

Who's Playing: No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5) @ No. 1 Denver Broncos (14-3)

When: Saturday, January 17, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

Watch: TBD

Denver is hosting its first playoff game in a decade and brings a 14-3 record, the AFC's No. 1 seed, and one of the league's most efficient defenses. Buffalo arrives off a Wild Card win but with a long, concerning injury list, especially in the secondary and depth pieces.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

Where the Lines Are

Here's what the books are offering:

Spread: Bills +1.5 (-110) | Broncos -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Bills -102 | Broncos -118

Total: 46 (Over -110 / Under -110)

Books briefly opened Bills -2 on power ratings, but early sharp money hammered Denver at +2 and +1.5, driving the market through pick'em to Broncos -1/-1.5. The total has seen light downward pressure from 46.5 to 46, signaling modest interest on the under rather than a shootout.

What the Smart Money Is Doing

Sharp money moved this line hard. Books opened Bills -2, and within hours, the Broncos were favored. That's a 3.5-point swing driven by professional bettors who know something the public doesn't.

The total dropped from 46.5 to 46, crossing a key number. That's sharp action on the under. The moneyline moved from Bills -120 to Broncos -118.

Key trends:

• Broncos 17-3 in last 20 games overall
• Broncos 7-1 at home this season
• Broncos hit 2H moneyline in 8 of last 9 home games
• Bills banged up with multiple secondary injuries
• Denver ranks top-10 in scoring defense
• Playoff pace favors lower-scoring games

Breaking Down Both Teams

Denver Broncos

Denver brings a 14-3 record, the AFC's No. 1 seed, and one of the league's most efficient defenses. They're hosting their first playoff game in a decade.

Offensive strengths

Bo Nix has managed Sean Payton's system well, limiting turnovers and spreading the ball. The scheme is conservative at times, but Nix's efficiency keeps the chains moving. Denver has won 17 of their last 20 overall and are 7-1 at home.

The Broncos cash the 2H moneyline in 8 of their last 9 home games. The altitude edge shows up in the fourth quarter when visiting offenses wear down.

Defensive strengths

Denver ranks top-10 in scoring defense and has been particularly strong in second halves at Mile High. The altitude wears down visiting offenses in late quarters. DL John Franklin-Myers (hip) and LB Dre Greenlaw (hamstring) both practiced fully and will play.

Injury concerns

TE Lucas Krull (foot) is OUT, which impacts some 12-personnel heavier sets in the red zone. Denver enters relatively healthy for a No. 1 seed, with the core of the defense intact.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo arrives off a Wild Card win but with a long, concerning injury list, especially in the secondary and depth pieces.

Offensive strengths

Josh Allen has 39 total TDs on the season and remains one of the few QBs who can wreck game plans with both arm and legs. He's playing through a foot, knee, and finger situation but is cleared to go.

James Cook has back-to-back 1,000+ yard seasons and leads Buffalo's backfield in both volume and explosiveness. Cook takes pressure off Allen and has cleared his rushing yards over in 8 of his last 10 road games.

The injury disaster

OUT:

• S Jordan Poyer (hamstring)
• CB Maxwell Hairston (ankle)
• WRs Gabe Davis & Tyrell Shavers (knee) landed on IR earlier in the week

Questionable/limited:

• LB Terrel Bernard (calf)
• RB Ty Johnson (ankle)
• DT Ed Oliver (bicep/IR designation)
• WR Curtis Samuel (elbow/IR tag)
• S Damar Hamlin (pectoral/IR tag)

Will play:

• QB Josh Allen (foot/knee/finger)
• TE Dalton Kincaid, LB Matt Milano, DE Greg Rousseau, LB Shaq Thompson, DE AJ Epenesa, K Matt Prater all cleared to go

This is a banged-up Bills defense missing a starting safety and a key corner in thin air against a rest-and-prep No. 1 seed. That's a problem.

Best Bets & Picks

Spread Pick: Broncos -1.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Denver has quietly become one of the NFL's most reliable closing teams, with 17 wins in their last 20 outings and profitable returns on full game, 2H, and 4Q moneylines at home. In a spread range that's essentially pick'em, you're backing a rested, healthy No. 1 seed at altitude.

The team with the healthier defense and continuity on that side of the ball. A Buffalo side with key losses in the back end and thin depth after a long, physical season.

Allen's volatility (turnover streaks, YOLO throws) combined with the environment and Denver's late-game metrics tilt the edge slightly but meaningfully toward the Broncos. The Bills are missing a starting safety and a key corner. That's going to show up in the fourth quarter when Allen has to throw.

The sharp money moved this line 3.5 points from Bills -2 to Broncos -1.5. That's a massive move driven by professional bettors who respect the altitude and injury situation. Follow the money.

Total Pick: Under 46 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Several factors drive value on the under. The total opened 46.5 and nudged down to 46 despite public familiarity with Allen's explosiveness. That's a classic modest sharp lean toward the under.

Divisional games, especially involving a rested No. 1 seed and a road team off a physical win, often skew slower with longer drives and fewer possessions. Denver's defense is significantly better at home, and altitude tends to tax offenses in late quarters.

Buffalo's offense will likely lean on James Cook more to manage Allen's workload and the elements. Multiple projection models land in a 23-24 to 20-21 range, which sits directly under current totals.

Both teams are going to try to control the clock and keep it on the ground. This isn't a shootout. Cash the under.

Moneyline Value: Broncos ML -118 (Half-Unit Play) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

At -118, the Broncos offer decent value for bettors who want to avoid the spread. Denver's 7-1 home record, 2H dominance, and the Bills' injury situation make this a safe play for conservative bettors. If you don't want to sweat a field goal, just take the Broncos to win straight up.

Player Props: Best Bets

James Cook Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cook is the clearest matchup-driven angle on the board. Model projections have him in the mid-80s (87.2 rush yards) with a 90% win probability at earlier 55.5 lines. Books responded by pushing his number up into the high 70s.

He hit his rushing yards over in 8 of his last 10 road games, with Buffalo increasingly building game plans around him. With Denver's pass rush and altitude, Buffalo has every incentive to feature Cook early and often, including on late clock-killing drives if they lead.

Even with the number pushed up, the matchup and usage profile still justify an over lean. This is your best prop bet of the slate.

Odds: -110

James Cook Anytime TD (Check Your Book) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rithmm's model projects 1.4 rushing TDs for Cook with a 74.3% probability of at least one score. He leads Buffalo with 16 rushing TDs plus 2 receiving this season, dominating red-zone touches.

Anytime TD at plus money (or close) remains attractive given his share of the Bills' TD equity. Buffalo is going to lean on Cook in the red zone, especially with Allen banged up.

Odds: Check your book for best price

Bo Nix Rushing Yards Over 23.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Nix's rushing line sits around 23.5 yards, and he's been increasingly willing to scramble in high-leverage spots. Buffalo's pass rush (Milano, Rousseau, Epenesa) can flush him from the pocket, and designed keeps/QB draws near the red zone are part of Sean Payton's toolbox.

In a must-win game with tight margins, quarterbacks often add 2-3 extra carries above baseline, making the mid-20s a reachable mark. Nix will pick up yards with his legs when the pocket breaks down.

Odds: -115

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Over 37.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐

Allen's number sits around 37.5 yards, and his playoff rushing volume has historically spiked compared to regular season as designed runs and scrambles increase. Denver's coverage on the back end often forces QBs to hold the ball, leading to tuck-and-go situations.

The altitude is a small concern for repeat sprints, but given Buffalo's reliance on Allen in big games, the over remains viable. He's going to scramble when the pocket collapses, and Denver's pass rush will force him to move.

Odds: -118

Other Props Worth Considering

Pat Bryant receiving yards over: He's hit his yards over in 8 straight games according to trend data. Check final numbers and juice before committing.

Stefon Diggs receiving yards over: If the line opens meaningfully below his historical playoff usage range, considering Poyer/secondary injuries on Denver are minimal but Buffalo's WR depth is thinned.

How the Broncos Win This Game

Denver needs to control pace with a balanced Nix/Harvey attack and avoid obvious passing downs against Milano and Rousseau. Force Allen into hero-ball late. Denver's 4Q/2H moneyline trend at home suggests they win the attritional battle.

Exploit Buffalo's weakened secondary with selective shot plays when Poyer's absence shows up in coverage rotations. The altitude will wear down Buffalo's offense in the fourth quarter.

The altitude advantage is real:

The Broncos cash the 2H moneyline in 8 of their last 9 home games. Visiting offenses wear down at Mile High, especially in January. Buffalo's banged-up secondary will struggle to keep up in the fourth quarter.

The Bills' Best Shot

Buffalo needs Cook to dominate on the ground, shortening the game and keeping Denver's offense cold. Allen must protect the ball in the red zone and convert high-leverage third downs rather than forcing contested deep shots.

The defense needs to manufacture one short field off a Nix turnover, converting it into 7 instead of 3. A tight, possession-driven game with a small number of explosive plays on each side lines up with the Bills keeping it close.

But the reality is Buffalo is banged up, and the altitude advantage at Mile High is legit. The Broncos are the better, healthier team at home.

Final Prediction

Score: Broncos 24, Bills 20

ATS Winner: Broncos -1.5 ✓

Total: Under 46 ✓

The Broncos control the game in the second half as the altitude wears down Buffalo's offense. James Cook rushes for 90+ yards and a TD, but Allen throws a costly interception in the fourth quarter. Bo Nix manages the game efficiently, and Denver's defense holds strong in the red zone. The Broncos win by a field goal and advance to the AFC Championship.

Confidence levels:

• Broncos -1.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
• Under 46: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
• Broncos ML -118: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High confidence)

This is a max-bet spot on Broncos -1.5 and Under 46. The sharp money moved this line 3.5 points, Denver's 7-1 home record and 2H dominance at altitude, and Buffalo's injury situation create one of the strongest edges of Divisional Round weekend. Load up on the Broncos spread, hammer the under, and focus on James Cook Over 77.5 rushing yards as your best player prop.

Next Steps

If you're betting spreads: Read a deeper breakdown of altitude and late-game edges in NFL playoff spreads to sharpen how you price 4Q performance in Denver.

If you're betting totals: Study playoff pace and red-zone efficiency trends to better evaluate unders in games with dual-threat QBs and strong defenses.

Want a deeper edge? Use advanced prop tools that integrate rush share, snap rates, and game script simulations when identifying RB rushing overs like James Cook's.