NFL

NFL Divisional Round Betting: Rams vs Bears Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Over Under Breakdown

The Rams are bringing their dome team offense to Chicago in 19-degree weather with a 45% chance of snow. Matthew Stafford is 1-9 in cold/rain/snow since moving to LA, and his completion percentage drops to 55% under 20°F. He's also playing with a sprained index finger on his throwing hand. Meanwhile, the Bears just came back from 21-3 down to beat the Packers and have won 6 games this season when trailing in the 4th quarter. This is a disaster waiting to happen for LA.

January 22, 2026

Quick Answer

Best bet: Bears +3.5 (-110) — Chicago is 6-0 in comeback wins from 4Q deficits (NFL record), weather heavily favors home team, line dropped from Rams -4.5

Best total play: Under 48.5 (-110) — Opened 51.5, dropped 3 points, 19°F with 45% snow chance, both teams lean on run game in elements

Best player prop: Kyren Williams Over 61.5 rushing yards (-115) — Bears allow 59.5% success rate on gap/man runs (3rd-worst), Williams 5-game postseason streak

Biggest mistake: Fading Bears' clutch gene — Caleb Williams leads NFL with 6 comeback wins, posted 361 yards and 2 TDs in Wild Card vs. Packers

Pro tip: Stafford is 1-9 in cold/rain/snow since moving to LA, completion % drops to 55% under 20°F, has sprained index finger on throwing hand

The Matchup

Here's what we're working with Sunday night:

Who's Playing: No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (12-5) @ No. 2 Chicago Bears (11-6)

When: Sunday, January 18, 2026, 6:30 PM ET

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

Watch: FOX

This NFC Divisional Round showdown features two teams that survived nail-biting Wild Card victories. The Rams escaped Carolina 34-31 on Matthew Stafford's 19-yard TD pass with 38 seconds left. The Bears stormed back from 21-3 down to stun Green Bay 31-27 in the largest playoff comeback in franchise history.

Now these high-powered offenses meet in what's forecasted to be one of the coldest games in NFL playoff history. 19°F at kickoff with 45% snow chance and 20 MPH wind gusts. This is going to get ugly.

Where the Lines Are

Here's what the books are offering:

Spread: Bears +3.5 (-110) | Rams -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Bears +165 to +172 | Rams -200 to -205

Total: 48.5 points (Over -110 / Under -110)

The line opened Rams -4.5 but quickly dropped to -3.5 as sharp money recognized Chicago's home-field edge and extreme weather conditions favoring the Bears. The total plummeted from 51.5 to 48.5, crossing key numbers 51 and 50. That's massive sharp action on the under.

What the Smart Money Is Doing

Sharp money moved this line from Rams -4.5 to -3.5. That's a full point toward the home underdog, which tells you the weather is a massive factor. The Rams are the better team on paper, but they're a dome team from LA heading into a Chicago snowstorm.

The total dropped 3 full points from 51.5 to 48.5. That's one of the sharpest moves of Wild Card Weekend. Sharp bettors are pounding the under because 19-degree weather with snow destroys scoring.

Key trends:

Bears are 6-0 in 4Q comeback wins (NFL record)
Stafford is 1-9 in cold/rain/snow, 55% completion under 20°F
Stafford has sprained index finger on throwing hand
Total dropped from 51.5 to 48.5 (3 points)
7 of last 9 H2H meetings went under 45 in cold weather
Bears practice in cold all season, Rams don't

Breaking Down Both Teams

Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay's Rams (12-5) bring the NFL's most explosive passing attack led by MVP candidate Matthew Stafford, but they face hostile weather conditions unlike anything they've experienced this season.

Offensive firepower

Matthew Stafford threw for 4,707 yards (NFL-best), 46 TDs (career-high), and 8 INTs. That's the 2nd-most TDs by a 37+ QB ever. He threw 304 yards and 3 TDs in the Wild Card win despite a sprained index finger on his throwing hand.

Stafford cleared to play after full practice Wednesday and says the finger feels "great" and won't wear protection. But that's 19-degree weather with snow, not sunny LA.

Puka Nacua has 1,533 scrimmage yards with 75 scrimmage yards and a TD in the Wild Card. Kyren Williams has 1,533 scrimmage yards and seeks his 5th straight playoff game with 70+ scrimmage yards. The Rams scored an NFL-best 48 TDs in 76 red-zone trips (63% TD rate) with elite finishing.

Weather disaster looming

Stafford is 1-9 in cold/rain/snow since moving to LA. His completion percentage drops to 55% under 20°F. Last year's Eagles playoff game was 34°F with snow, and Stafford threw 324 yards but the Rams lost.

This game is 19°F at kickoff with 45% snow chance and 20 MPH wind gusts. That's far worse conditions. Dr. Robert Paras (sports medicine) says "Hands and feet get cold quickly, reducing ability to catch ball. Grip strength decreases."

The Rams are a dome team from LA and haven't practiced in 20-degree weather all season. This is a disaster.

Injuries

CB Ahkello Witherspoon (shoulder, reinjured vs. Panthers) is OUT, so secondary depth is tested. QB Matthew Stafford (finger) and S Quentin Lake (foot) had full practice and are expected to play.

Special teams concern

The Rams had 5 kicks blocked this season, including a punt blocked vs. the Panthers. McVay fired his special teams coordinator because of it.

Chicago Bears

Ben Johnson's Bears (11-6) are the cardiac kids of the NFL, winning an NFL-record 6 games when trailing in the final 2 minutes of regulation. Chicago stormed back from 21-3 down to beat Green Bay 31-27 in the Wild Card, posting the largest playoff comeback in franchise history.

Caleb Williams' clutch gene

Williams leads the NFL with 6 comeback wins from 4Q deficits, which is a franchise record by any Bears QB since the merger. He threw 361 yards and 2 TDs in the Wild Card comeback vs. the Packers.

He finished the season with 3,942 passing yards (franchise record) and 27 TDs. He earned the "Iceman" nickname from teammate Luther Burden III for his composure under pressure. He posted a 107.7 passer rating in a 30°F game vs. the Lions with 334 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs in the cold.

Williams is projected for 239 passing yards over 18 games and averages 230+ in big spots. This kid is legit.

Defensive dominance

The Bears have 23 interceptions (2nd in NFL) with a +17 turnover differential. The Bears defense allows a 38.2 passer rating on 3rd-and-long (best in NFL). They force 1.4 INTs per game (best in NFL). The Bears are 9-0 when forcing at least one fumble. They allow -0.25 EPA on first drive (best in NFL).

Home-field and weather advantage

The Bears love Soldier Field and won 31-27 in a playoff game at home vs. the Packers in the Wild Card. Weather edge: Chicago practices in cold all season, the Rams don't. The Bears haven't used heaters in practice to prep for frigid temps.

19°F at kickoff with 45% snow and 20 MPH wind is exactly what the Bears want. This is their weather. The Rams have never seen this.

Injuries

LT Ozzy Trapilo (injury vs. Packers, season-ending) and LB TJ Edwards (injury, season-ending) are OUT. CB CJ Gardner-Johnson (concussion, cleared) and CB Kyler Gordon are questionable but both will play.

Over/Under Breakdown: Why Sharp Money Hammered Under 48.5

The total has dropped 3 full points from opening 51.5 to current 48.5, crossing key numbers 51 and 50. This is one of the sharpest moves of Wild Card Weekend. Sharp bettors are pounding the under.

Weather catastrophe

Forecast at kickoff:

Temperature: 19°F (feels like 5-10°F with wind chill)
Snow: 45% chance with potential accumulation
Wind: 20 MPH gusts

How cold weather affects scoring: Stafford's cold-weather splits show a 1-9 record with 55% completion rate under 20°F. Ball handling gets harder. "Ball gets hard, grip strength decreases" per Dr. Paras. Injury risk increases. "Tendons and muscles become stiffer, increasing muscle pulls and tears." Reaction time slows. "Players might not run as fast, reaction time slows." Hands and feet suffer. "Within 10 minutes, body constricts blood vessels to extremities."

Game script favors run-heavy attack

The Rams' red-zone dominance gets negated. They scored 48 TDs in 76 red-zone trips (63%), which is the NFL's best. But field goals become risky in 20 MPH wind, forcing more punts. Stafford's sprained index finger plus cold equals grip and timing issues.

Both teams will pound the rock. Kyren Williams faces a Bears defense that allows a 59.5% success rate on gap/man runs (3rd-worst). Blake Corum faces a Bears defense that allows the highest rate of rushing before contact since Week 11. D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai keep the Bears' ground game and clock moving.

Historical trends

7 of the last 9 H2H meetings went under 45 points between NFC North rivals in cold. 10 of 17 Rams games stayed under this season (58.8%). Covers analyst says "If I like Under, I'm making sure I get Under 51.5." Stafford's last cold-weather playoff game was 34°F vs. the Eagles, and the Rams scored only 23 points (lost 28-23).

Defensive metrics

The Bears have 23 INTs (2nd in NFL) and allow a 38.2 passer rating on 3rd-and-long (best). The Rams are 12-5 ATS but 5-5 in one-score games, so games stay tight. Both defenses force conservative play-calling in elements.

Bleacher Nation predicts Rams 31, Bears 20 (51 total), which is barely over, but weather pushes under. FanDuel numberFire projects a Rams win with 63.7% probability but doesn't account for weather. Covers expects a "run-heavy, low-scoring Divisional Round clash."

Best Bets & Picks

Spread Pick: Bears +3.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Line movement favors the Bears. The spread dropped from Rams -4.5 to -3.5 with sharp money. Weather is a catastrophe for the Rams as an LA dome team that hasn't played in 20-degree weather all season.

Stafford's cold splits are brutal: 1-9 in cold/rain/snow with 55% completion under 20°F. His finger injury (sprained index finger) plus 19°F equals a grip and timing disaster. The Bears' clutch gene is real with 6-0 in 4Q comeback wins (NFL record). They won't die.

The home-field edge is massive. The Bears practice in cold, the Rams don't. Expert consensus has USA Today's experts split 2-2, but both backing the Bears cite weather. Historical precedent shows the Rams are 2-4 in games decided by 4 or fewer points. The Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.

Multiple experts (Lorenzo Reyes, Christopher Bumbaca) back Bears +3.5, citing "one of the coldest games in NFL history" and the Rams being a "dome team from LA." Look, the Rams are good, but they've never played in weather like this. The Bears live in this. Take the home dog.

Recommended Bet: 3-unit MAX play at +3.5 or better

Total Pick: Under 48.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The total dropped 3 points from 51.5 to 48.5. That's massive sharp under action. 19°F with 45% snow and 20 MPH wind is a scoring environment disaster. Stafford is 1-9 in cold weather, so the offense struggles.

Run-heavy game script means both teams pound the rock in elements. 7 of the last 9 H2H went under 45 in cold-weather NFC matchups. Field goals are risky with 20 MPH wind, so teams punt more. Covers analyst expects a "run-heavy, low-scoring clash." Dr. Paras says "Cold affects ball handling, grip strength, reaction time."

Both teams are going to try to control the clock and keep it on the ground. This isn't a shootout. Cash the under.

Recommended Bet: 3-unit MAX play at 48.5 or higher

Moneyline Value: Bears ML +168 (Half-Unit Play) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

At +168, the Bears offer excellent value for bettors who believe in the weather advantage and clutch gene. Stafford's 1-9 record in cold weather combined with his sprained index finger makes this a legitimate upset spot. The Bears are 6-0 in comeback wins, so they'll keep fighting all game.

Player Props: Best Bets

Kyren Williams Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Williams is seeking his 5th straight playoff game with 70+ scrimmage yards. The Bears allow a 59.5% success rate on gap/man runs (3rd-worst in NFL). The Bears defense allows the highest rate of rushing before contact since Week 11.

The Rams employ gap/man schemes at a top-10 rate, which is a perfect matchup. Game script favors the Rams leaning on the run game in 19°F weather.

Odds: -115

Puka Nacua Under 99.5 Receiving Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

19°F with 45% snow means the passing game is heavily limited. Stafford's 55% completion rate under 20°F and his sprained index finger affect timing on deep routes. The Bears defense has 23 INTs (2nd in NFL) and allows a 38.2 passer rating on 3rd-and-long.

The line is set at 99.5 yards, which is high for an extreme weather game.

Odds: -115

Caleb Williams Over 230.5 Passing Yards (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Williams averaged 239 yards over 18 games. He threw for 361 yards in the Wild Card vs. the Packers. He's thrown 230+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games. Plus-money odds at +105 offer excellent value.

The Rams' secondary lost Ahkello Witherspoon (shoulder). The Bears will throw to keep pace if the Rams score early.

Odds: +105

D'Andre Swift Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Game script favors the Bears leaning on the run in 19°F weather. The Rams defense allows 101.7 rush YPG (18th in NFL). Swift averaged 62.3 rush YPG this season. The Bears' comeback formula is to run the clock and control possession.

Odds: -115

Matthew Stafford Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-165) ⭐⭐

Weather disaster: 19°F with snow limits red-zone passing. Stafford's sprained index finger plus cold equals an accuracy drop. Field position means punts are more likely than TD drives in elements. The Rams will lean on Kyren Williams in the red zone.

Odds: -165 (juice is high, but weather justifies it)

How the Bears Pull the Upset

Chicago needs Caleb Williams to engineer his 7th comeback win. The defense must force 2+ turnovers from Stafford's cold fingers. The Bears' ball-hawking secondary (23 INTs) will create opportunities.

D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai control the clock with the run game. Keep the Rams' offense off the field. Win time of possession like they did vs. the Steelers (35+ minutes).

The weather is the Bears' biggest advantage. Stafford's 1-9 record in cold weather and 55% completion rate under 20°F means he's going to struggle. The Bears need to capitalize on his mistakes.

The Rams' Path to Victory

LA needs to establish Kyren Williams early against the Bears' vulnerable run defense. Build a lead before the weather gets worse in the 4th quarter. Stafford must protect the ball despite the cold and his finger injury.

The defense needs to pressure Caleb Williams and force him into mistakes. Don't let the Bears establish their run game and control the clock. Make Williams beat you through the air in 19-degree weather.

Final Prediction

Score: Bears 24, Rams 20

ATS Winner: Bears +3.5 ✓

Total: Under 48.5 ✓

The Rams build an early 13-3 lead behind Kyren Williams' rushing attack, but Caleb Williams engineers his 7th comeback win with a 4Q TD pass to DJ Moore. The Bears defense forces 2 turnovers from Stafford's cold fingers, and Chicago kicks a game-winning field goal with 1:23 left.

Both teams stay well under 48.5 in a defensive, weather-shortened slugfest. The Bears advance to the NFC Championship.

Confidence levels:

Bears +3.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Under 48.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Bears ML +168: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High confidence, value play)

This is a max-bet spot on Bears +3.5 and Under 48.5. The line dropped from Rams -4.5 to -3.5, the total dropped 3 points from 51.5 to 48.5, Stafford is 1-9 in cold weather with a sprained index finger, and the Bears are 6-0 in 4Q comeback wins. Load up on the Bears spread, hammer the under, and focus on Kyren Williams Over 61.5 rushing yards as your best player prop.