NFL

NFL Divisional Round Betting: Texans vs Patriots Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Underdog Angles

The Patriots are 14-3 and everyone's talking about their home dominance. But the Texans are on a 10-game win streak too, and CBS SportsLine says they win this game outright in 45% of simulations. At +3, that's massive value. Nico Collins is out with a concussion, which hurts, but Houston's elite defense can keep this game tight. This isn't the blowout you think it is.

January 22, 2026

Quick Answer

Best bet: Texans +3 (-110) — Houston on 10-game win streak, Patriots 12-5-1 ATS but struggle to blow teams out, Nico Collins OUT creates contrarian value

Best total play: Under 40.5 (-110) — Opened 41.5, dropped to 40.5, both elite defenses, cold weather (mid-30s) at Gillette

Best player prop: Woody Marks Over 59.5 rushing yards (-110) — Rushed for 112 yards vs. Steelers (career-high), Patriots allow 101.7 rush YPG

Biggest mistake: Overvaluing Patriots' home dominance without context — Houston 10-8 ATS, 5-4 ATS on road, 3-3 ATS as road underdog

Pro tip: Texans win 45% of simulations, cover 49% of simulations per CBS SportsLine — massive value at +3

The Matchup

Here's what we're working with Sunday afternoon:

Who's Playing: No. 5 Houston Texans (12-5) @ No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3)

When: Sunday, January 18, 2026, 3:00 PM ET

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Watch: ESPN, ABC

This AFC Divisional Round matchup marks the third playoff meeting between these franchises. The previous two occurred in the Divisional Round in New England with the Patriots winning 41-28 in January 2013 and 34-16 in January 2017.

The Texans enter on a 10-game winning streak after dominating Pittsburgh 30-6 in the Wild Card. The Patriots gutted out a 16-3 defensive masterpiece over the Chargers. Houston's high-powered offense faces a major hurdle though: Nico Collins (WR) is OUT with a concussion.

Where the Lines Are

Here's what the books are offering:

Spread: Texans +3 (-110) | Patriots -3 (-110)

Moneyline: Texans +140 to +150 | Patriots -170 to -178

Total: 40.5 points (Over -110 / Under -110)

The line opened Patriots -2.5, quickly bet to -3 with sharp action recognizing New England's home edge and defensive dominance. The total dropped from 41.5 to 40.5, signaling sharp money expecting a defensive grind.

What the Smart Money Is Doing

Sharp money moved this line from Patriots -2.5 to -3, but it stopped there. That's interesting because the Patriots are at home with a better record. The market is telling you this is closer than it looks.

The total dropped from 41.5 to 40.5, crossing a key number. That's sharp action on the under expecting a defensive battle.

Key trends:

Both teams on 10-game win streaks
Patriots 12-5-1 ATS (70.6%), best in NFL
Texans 10-8 ATS (55.6%), 5-4 ATS on road, 3-3 ATS as road underdog
CBS SportsLine: Texans cover in 49% of simulations, win outright in 45%
FPI: Texans have 48.3% win probability (near coin flip)
Patriots 4th in scoring defense (18.8 PPG)
Texans #1 total defense (285.2 YPG), #2 scoring defense (18.8 PPG)

Breaking Down Both Teams

New England Patriots

Mike Vrabel's Patriots enter the Divisional Round on a 10-game win streak of their own (14-3 record), boasting the best ATS record in the NFL (12-5-1, 70.6%). Their defense has been historically dominant.

Defensive dominance

The Patriots held the Chargers to 3 points without allowing a touchdown in the Wild Card. They rank 4th in scoring defense (18.8 PPG) and 8th in total defense (295.2 YPG). CB Christian Gonzalez CLEARED from concussion protocol after limited Wednesday practice, which is a huge boost. DT Khyiris Tonga is expected to return from a foot injury after a 3-week absence, so the interior D-line is at full strength.

The defense forces opponents into conservative game plans and limits explosive plays. They're legit.

Offensive efficiency

Drake Maye threw for 3,381 yards, 23 TDs, and 6 INTs with a 66.3% completion rate (258.5 pass YPG). Maye rushed for 4 TDs on 7.5 attempts per game as a dual-threat QB.

TreVeyon Henderson rushed for 148 yards on 14 carries vs. the Chargers as an explosive playmaker. Stefon Diggs has 1,013 yards and needs 75 more postseason yards to join the 1,000-yard playoff club (71 rec, 925 yards, 9 TDs in 15 career playoff games).

Injuries

OUT: OT Morgan Moses (knee), OT Thayer Munford Jr. (knee) — offensive line depth tested

Questionable: TE Hunter Henry (knee), LB Anfernee Jennings (knee)

Will play: CB Christian Gonzalez (concussion cleared), DT Khyiris Tonga (foot, likely)

Home-field advantage

The Patriots are 24-5 (.828) all-time in playoff home games. Weather edge: Mid-30s with 32% rain chance and WNW wind 5-6 mph. Houston historically struggles in cold weather. The Texans underperform in temperatures below 40°F.

Houston Texans

DeMeco Ryans' Texans (12-5) enter on a 10-game winning streak, matching the Patriots' momentum. Houston dominated Pittsburgh 30-6 in the Wild Card behind a suffocating defense (6 sacks, 2 INTs) and efficient offense led by C.J. Stroud.

Offensive firepower (without Collins)

C.J. Stroud threw for 3,041 yards, 19 TDs, and 8 INTs with a 64.5% completion rate (217.2 pass YPG). Nico Collins is OUT (concussion) as the Texans' leading receiver (1,117 yards, 71 catches, 6 TDs). He didn't practice Wednesday and was ruled out Friday.

Without Collins, the Texans rely on Xavier Hutchinson, Jayden Higgins, and Kyle Williams (all unproven in playoffs). That's a problem.

Joe Mixon rushed for 1,107 yards on 4.3 YPC as an elite pass-catching RB (81.6% catch rate). Woody Marks (RB) rushed for a career-high 112 yards vs. the Steelers and emerged as the RB1B option.

Defensive excellence

Houston has the #1 total defense in the NFL (285.2 YPG) and #2 scoring defense (18.8 PPG). Will Anderson Jr. (12 sacks) and Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) form an elite pass rush duo.

They have 23 interceptions (2nd in NFL), 31 total takeaways, and a +17 turnover differential. They dominated the Steelers with 6 sacks, 2 INTs, and held Aaron Rodgers to 1 TD.

Injuries

OUT: WR Nico Collins (concussion), DL Denico Autry (ankle), OL Trent Brown (shoulder)

Questionable: WR Justin Watson (knee), RB Jawhar Jordan (hamstring)

Underdog trends

The Texans are 10-8 ATS this season (55.6%), 5-4 ATS on the road, and 3-3 ATS as road underdog. CBS SportsLine projects the Texans cover +3 in 49% of simulations and win outright in 45%. FPI gives the Texans a 48.3% win probability, which is basically a coin flip.

What the Experts Are Saying

CBS SportsLine ran 10,000 simulations and has the Texans covering in 49% of them and winning outright in 45%. That's massive value at +3. FPI projects Patriots win by only 0.6 points on average (51.7% win probability), which is essentially a pick'em.

Sports Betting Dime projects Texans 18.1, Patriots 9.4 using their proprietary formula. Multiple projection systems (CBS SportsLine, FPI, Sports Betting Dime) all suggest this game stays within 3 points.

Rotoworld recommends Under 40.5. Most projections land in a 20-17 to 23-20 range.

Best Bets & Picks

Spread Pick: Texans +3 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

CBS SportsLine model has the Texans covering in 49% of simulations and winning outright in 45%. That's a huge edge at +3. FPI projects Patriots win by only 0.6 points on average (51.7% win probability), which is essentially a pick'em.

Both teams are on 10-game win streaks, so momentum is neutral. ATS trends favor Houston with the Texans 3-3 ATS as road underdog and the Patriots 8-3-1 ATS as home favorite but 5-2-1 ATS specifically as home favorite of 3+ points.

The Patriots struggle to blow teams out. They're 14-3 but many are close wins. They don't demolish opponents consistently. The Texans' elite defense (#1 total, #2 scoring) can keep the game tight even without Collins.

Sports Betting Dime projects Texans 18.1, Patriots 9.4 using their proprietary formula. The Texans are 0-6 all-time in the Divisional Round, but 49% cover rate per simulations suggests oddsmakers undervalue them. Multiple projection systems all suggest this game stays within 3 points.

Look, the Patriots are good, but they're not 10-point-better-than-Houston good. The Texans' defense can dominate Maye, and Woody Marks can control the clock. This is a field goal game at worst.

Recommended Bet: 3-unit MAX play at +3 or better

Total Pick: Under 40.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The total dropped from 41.5 to 40.5, and that's sharp money hammering the under. Both elite defenses: Patriots 4th in scoring (18.8 PPG), Texans 2nd in scoring (18.8 PPG).

Cold weather (mid-30s with 32% rain chance, wind 5-6 mph) favors defense and the run game. The Patriots held the Chargers to 3 points in the Wild Card. The Texans held the Steelers to 6 points.

Divisional Round games are often slower-paced with fewer possessions. Only 11 of 18 Patriots games went over this season (61%). Only 6 of 18 Texans games went over (33%). Rotoworld recommends Under 40.5, and most projections land in a 20-17 to 23-20 range.

CBS model projects Patriots 24, Texans 17 (41 total), which is barely over, but contrarian value exists on the under. With Nico Collins OUT, the Texans' scoring ceiling drops significantly.

Both defenses are going to dominate. This is a grind. Cash the under.

Recommended Bet: 3-unit MAX play at 40.5 or higher

Moneyline Value: Texans ML +140 to +150 (0.5-Unit Lottery Ticket) ⭐⭐⭐

CBS SportsLine says the Texans win outright in 45% of simulations at +145 odds (implied 40.8%). That's a massive edge. FPI gives the Texans a 48.3% win probability, which is a near coin flip.

Both teams are on 10-game win streaks matching the Patriots' momentum. The elite defense can dominate Drake Maye (23 INTs this season, force turnovers). If Woody Marks replicates his 112-yard performance, the Texans control the clock.

The Patriots' cold-weather edge is overstated. Houston has played in freezing conditions before, and defense travels well. DeMeco Ryans is facing mentor Vrabel with extra motivation.

At +140 to +150 odds, the Texans offer exceptional value for a small-unit sprinkle given 45-48% true win probability.

Recommended Bet: 0.5-unit lottery ticket at +145 or better

Player Props: Best Bets

Woody Marks Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Marks rushed for a career-high 112 yards vs. the Steelers in his best performance of the season. The Patriots allow 101.7 rush YPG (18th in NFL). With Nico Collins OUT, the Texans will lean on the run game to control the clock.

RotoGrinders projects a 65.1% probability of clearing this mark with a 7.3% edge. Game script favors the Texans staying competitive, requiring a balanced attack.

Odds: -110

Xavier Hutchinson Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Hutchinson steps into the WR2 role with Collins OUT, but he faces Christian Gonzalez (elite CB). RotoGrinders projects a 63.6% probability of staying under with a 5.8% edge.

The Patriots' defense limits explosive passing plays. Hutchinson averaged only 35 YPG this season in a limited role.

Odds: -110

Jayden Higgins Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Higgins is also elevated to a larger role without Collins, but he's untested in playoffs. RotoGrinders projects a 63.5% probability of staying under with a 5.7% edge.

The Patriots' secondary (Gonzalez, Marcus Jones) will blanket secondary receivers.

Odds: -110

Drake Maye Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Maye averaged 7.5 rush attempts per game this season. The Patriots will lean on TreVeyon Henderson after his 148-yard Wild Card performance.

Against the elite Texans defense (27 sacks this season), Vrabel won't risk Maye taking unnecessary hits. The line sits exactly at season average, so a slight under lean exists.

Odds: -110

Kyle Williams Over 0.5 Receptions (Check Your Book) ⭐⭐

Williams is elevated to a starting role with Collins OUT. RotoGrinders projects a 65.1% probability of catching at least 1 pass with a 7.3% edge.

Stroud will target multiple receivers to compensate for Collins' absence.

Odds: Check your book (likely -150 to -180)

How the Texans Pull the Upset

Houston has a 5-step blueprint to win this game:

Generate turnovers

The defense needs to force 2+ turnovers from Maye. The Patriots' QB has thrown 6 INTs in his career. The Texans' ball-hawking secondary (23 INTs) creates chaos.

Woody Marks dominates

If Marks rushes for 100+ yards, the Texans control the clock and keep the Patriots' offense off the field. Replicate the Wild Card dominance.

Joe Mixon catches 6+ passes

With Collins OUT, Mixon becomes the safety valve for Stroud in the short passing game.

Win time of possession

The Texans held the ball for 35+ minutes vs. the Steelers. They need a similar recipe here.

Special teams or defensive TD

One short field or score changes the entire game script.

Realistic upset probability: 45-48% per advanced models.

The Patriots' Path to Victory

New England needs to establish the run game early with TreVeyon Henderson. Force the Texans to play from behind without Nico Collins. Maye must protect the ball and avoid giving the Texans' ball-hawking secondary easy turnovers.

The defense needs to contain Woody Marks and force Stroud into obvious passing downs. Make Hutchinson and Higgins beat you instead of Collins.

Final Prediction

Score: Patriots 20, Texans 17

ATS Winner: Texans +3 ✓

Total: Under 40.5 ✓

Both elite defenses dominate in a low-scoring playoff grind. Drake Maye throws for 215 yards and 1 TD. TreVeyon Henderson rushes for 85 yards and 1 TD. C.J. Stroud throws for 195 yards and 1 TD without Nico Collins. Woody Marks rushes for 75 yards.

The Patriots escape with a field goal in the final 2 minutes, but the Texans cover +3 easily. Both teams stay well under 40.5 in a defensive masterpiece.

Confidence levels:

Texans +3: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Under 40.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Texans ML +145: ⭐⭐⭐ (Moderate confidence, value play)

This is a max-bet spot on Texans +3 and Under 40.5. CBS SportsLine says the Texans cover in 49% of simulations and win outright in 45%. FPI has this as a 48.3% win probability for Houston. The sharp money moved the total down from 41.5 to 40.5. Load up on the Texans spread, hammer the under, and focus on Woody Marks Over 59.5 rushing yards as your best player prop.