NFL Moneyline Bets Explained

What’s a Moneyline Bet?

Alright. The moneyline is just a bet on who wins the game. Not by how much. Just win.

You’ll see odds like this:

• Buffalo Bills: -160
  
  
• New York Jets: +140
  
  

Here’s the deal. The minus (-) means the Bills are the favorite. You’d need to bet $160 to win $100. The plus (+) means the Jets are the underdog. Bet $100 and win $140 if they pull it off.

Think of it like this: the plus is the risky party, the minus is the safe brunch. Both can be fun. You just gotta pick your vibe.

Want the nerdy version? We wrote it up in our glossary on odds. But you don’t need it. You got this.

Why Bet the Moneyline in NFL Games?

Because it's simple. Because spreads are annoying. Because sometimes you just know the Cowboys are winning, but you don’t feel like sweating a -6.5 cover.

NFL moneyline bets are perfect for games where you think one team wins, but not by much. Or when you love an underdog to shock the world. Or when you just don’t trust kickers.

It’s also way easier to talk trash in the group chat when you called the winner outright.

And for the record—yes, betting the moneyline on your hometown team absolutely counts. Even when they stink.

A Real Example (With Real Bragging Rights)

Say you’re staring at the NFL game schedule and see this:

• Detroit Lions: -135
  
  
• Seattle Seahawks: +115
  
  

You like the Seahawks. You saw them grind out a W last week. You know that offense can cook. You throw $100 on the moneyline. They win. You pocket $115 and talk about it all week.

This is why moneyline betting hits different. No need to calculate margins or track a backdoor cover. Just root for the win and collect the cash.

Now go ahead—say it louder for Dave.

Quick Tips for Picking NFL Moneyline Winners

We did the homework so you don’t have to. Here’s how to not be a dumbass:

• Don’t chase chalk unless the value’s there. A -300 favorite ain’t worth the sweat.
  
  
• Look for value—aka bets that pay more than they should. Value betting is a real thing. And yes, we wrote a glossary for it.
  
  
• Use recent form. Who’s hot? Who’s cooked?
  
  
• Pay attention to injuries. Especially QBs. No QB = no chance.
  
  
• Watch the line movement. Late shifts can tell you a lot. (Like when the sharps are piling on one side.)
  
  

Long-tail keyword time: NFL teams that pull off upsets usually show signs—watch the trends and make your move before the line shifts.

So, Uh, How Are These Odds Set Anyway?

Books don’t just guess. They use algorithms, stats, weather, probably a goat sacrifice—whatever works. But here’s the thing: they also bake in a profit margin. So that “fair” line? It’s tilted just enough to mess with you.

You’re not beating them with spreadsheets. You’re beating them with speed and timing.

That’s where Shurzy shines. We give you quick picks that make sense, without a 20-tab spreadsheet safari.

Follow the NFL news, check the NFL standings, then get in and get out.

Moneyline vs. Spread: What’s Better?

Depends on the matchup. If you love a team but hate the number, go moneyline.

• Saints -3.5 vs Falcons
  
  
• Saints moneyline: -170
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Betting the spread means they gotta win by 4+. Betting the moneyline? Just win, baby.

And if you think both options suck? Parlay time.

Oh—and if you’re trying to play both sides or lock in a guaranteed win, see our page on arbitrage. We won’t tell your bookie.

Make the NFL Schedule Work for You

Look at the NFL schedule and don’t just pick big names. Look for edge cases. Road teams on short rest. East coast squads flying west. Teams coming off byes. It all matters.

Scan the NFL games today, find the weird spots, and bet accordingly.

Long-tail keyword drop: Using the NFL schedule to sniff out soft spots is a cheat code for picking off tired teams and cold QBs.

Don’t Sleep on Live Moneyline Bets

Live betting is your friend if you’ve got fast fingers. Team starts slow? Odds jump. You swoop in.

Like this: The Ravens go down 10 in the first quarter. They’re +220 now. You bet 'em. Lamar goes nuclear. Boom—double your money.

Just don’t tilt bet. That’s how you end up Venmo’ing your ex for rent money.

Track NFL today action, and if your gut says it’s time—pull the trigger.

Final Whistle

NFL moneyline bets are fast, fun, and flex-worthy. They’re built for bettors who want the win without the math. You’ve already got the takes. Now you’ve got the tool.

You don’t need to be a spreadsheet wizard. Just watch the NFL teams, stay sharp on NFL news, and catch the NFL scores when it counts.

Check out our full betting toolset to start spotting profitable lines.