NFL Playoffs Betting Tips in Kansas: Football Parlays, Over/Unders, and More!

Kansas is the epicenter of the NFL right now. With the Kansas City Chiefs attempting another Super Bowl run, the Sunflower State is awash in red and gold. Since launching in September 2022, Kansas has become one of the most active per-capita betting markets in the nation.

But betting in Kansas in 2025 is tricky. You're surrounded by "Chiefs Fatigue" in the lines. The books know that 90% of Kansans will bet the Chiefs spread, no matter what it is. If the fair line is -3, they'll hang -4.5. If the total is 45, they'll hang 46.5.

This guide is for the Kansas bettor who loves the Chiefs but loves money more. We'll show you how to navigate the "Mahomes Tax," how to exploit the unique regulatory quirks of the Kansas Racing and Gaming Commission, and how to use the state's massive list of promos to build a bankroll that lasts through February.

Understanding NFL Playoff Betting Basics (Kansas Edition)

The Chiefs Tax

Let's be honest: You're going to bet on the Chiefs. But how you bet them matters.

The Moneyline Trap: In the playoffs, the Chiefs are often favored. Betting the Moneyline at -250 is a slow way to go broke.

The Teaser Solution: The only way to bet a Chiefs favorite in the playoffs is a Wong Teaser. Tease the Chiefs from -7.5 to -1.5. You just need them to win. This removes the "Backdoor Cover" risk that plagues Mahomes bettors.

The Missouri Border War

Missouri (as of Dec 1, 2025) has finally launched sports betting. For years, Missourians drove to Kansas to bet. Now, they stay home.

This competition means Kansas books have to fight harder to keep you. Look for "Retention Offers" in your email. DraftKings KS and FanDuel KS will be sending out "Deposit Matches" and "Risk-Free Bets" to stop you from crossing state lines to claim Missouri new-user bonuses.

Shurzy Tip: Watch for "media" boosts on ESPN BET. If Stephen A. Smith yells about the Chiefs winning by 20, they might boost the line. FADE these boosts. The "media" boosts are usually traps designed to capture public money.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

Parlay Betting Strategies for NFL Playoffs

In Kansas, the SGP is king. But don't build "Homer" parlays. Build "Scenario" parlays.

The Mahomes Magic SGP

The Construction:

• Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 Rushing Yards
• Travis Kelce Anytime TD
• Chiefs 2nd Half Moneyline

In the playoffs, Mahomes runs. He stops looking downfield and takes the 8 yards. And when they get to the Red Zone in the 4th quarter, he looks for Kelce. This parlay captures the essence of "Playoff Mahomes" without worrying about the spread.

The Defense Wins Championships Stack

The 2025 Chiefs defense is elite. Fade the opposing star WR.

The Play: Opposing WR1 UNDER Receiving Yards + Chiefs Moneyline + Total UNDER

Spagnuolo (Chiefs DC) consistently takes away the opponent's #1 weapon. If he succeeds, the game goes Under, and the Chiefs win. It's a perfectly correlated script.

The AFC West Round Robin

If the Broncos or Chargers are also in the playoffs, use a Round Robin. Pick the Chiefs spread, the Broncos spread, and the Chargers spread. Play them as 2s and 3s.

The AFC West is a brutal division. These teams are battle-tested. They historically perform well ATS against softer divisions like the AFC South.

Shurzy Tip: Fanatics Sportsbook took over PointsBet. Kansas bettors can earn significant FanCash during the playoffs. Use this app for your "Longshot" bets (First TD Scorer). Even if you lose, the cashback percentage softens the blow.

Read more: Everything You Need to Know About NFL Prop Betting

Over/Under Betting in Playoff Football

The Arrowhead Wind

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is one of the hardest places to kick in the NFL. The stadium shape swirls the wind.

If the Chiefs are at home and the wind is 12mph+, bet the Total UNDER. Fade the opposing kicker. Taking Opposing Kicker POINTS - UNDER at Arrowhead is a sharp bet. The pressure plus the wind often leads to a missed FG or a decision to go for it on 4th down.

The Over Trap

The public sees "Chiefs" and thinks "Points." The reality? The Chiefs in 2025 are a defensive team. They grind out wins.

If the total is above 47, look to the Under. The Chiefs are comfortable winning 20-17. They don't need to put up 40 anymore.

Shurzy Tip: First Drive Result: PUNT. When the Chiefs are on defense first at home, the crowd noise is deafening (142.2 decibels). False starts and communication issues plague visiting teams on the first drive.

Read more: What Is Over/Under Betting in Football

Additional Playoff Betting Markets

Super Bowl Futures Hedge

If you're a Kansan, you probably have a Chiefs Super Bowl ticket from August. Now is the time to protect it.

Place small bets on the Lions and Eagles (NFC favorites). If the Chiefs lose the Super Bowl, you cash the hedge. If they win, your August ticket pays out huge. Don't be greedy. Lock in the profit.

Shurzy Tip: Kansas law dedicates a portion of betting revenue to a fund to lure pro sports teams to Kansas (read: The Chiefs). The irony? Every time you lose a bet, you're technically helping pay for a potential new stadium in KCK.

Read more: NFL Sports Betting Reverse Line Movement Explained

Kansas-Specific Betting Information

Where to Bet: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN BET, Fanatics

Taxes: Kansas treats gambling winnings as income. Keep your W-2G forms.

Responsible Gambling: Kansas Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-522-4700 (available 24/7)

Shurzy Tip: ESPN BET (formerly Barstool) is huge in Kansas due to the Penn Entertainment partnership (Hollywood Casino at Kansas Speedway). Watch for exclusive boosts, but be careful of media-driven trap lines.

Read more: Best Online Sportsbooks for Betting on the NBA

Common Playoff Betting Mistakes to Avoid

The Dynasty Assumption

Just because they won back-to-back doesn't mean they cover -10 in the Wild Card. Super Bowl champions are just 45% ATS in their first playoff game the following year. The market overvalues them.

Don't lay double digits in the playoffs, even with Mahomes.

Forgetting the Chiefs Fatigue

Kansas bettors often get bored of the Chiefs winning ugly. They start betting props like "Mahomes 4 TDs" to make it exciting.

Boredom is the enemy of profit. Betting the Chiefs to win 20-17 is boring, but it pays the same as a blowout. Stick to the metrics, not the entertainment value.

Wrapping It Up

Kansas is the kingdom of the Chiefs, but you don't have to be a peasant. Use the Wong Teaser to safely back Mahomes, exploit the Arrowhead Wind on totals, and leverage the new competition from Missouri to get better bonuses.

Red Kingdom, let's get that bread.

F*ck Spreadsheets. Just picks that hit.

‍