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NFL Playoffs Betting Tips in Kentucky: Football Parlays, Over/Unders, and More!

Kentucky is horse country by tradition, but as of 2025, it's a football betting powerhouse by volume. Since the legalization of sports betting in late 2023, the Bluegrass State has exploded, wagering over $2.6 billion annually. For the 2025 NFL Playoffs, Kentucky represents one of the most interesting "crossroads" markets in the US. Bordered by the NFL strongholds of Ohio (Bengals) and Tennessee (Titans), but lacking a pro team of its own, Kentucky bettors are "Free Agents." This guide is your weapon. We'll show you how to leverage the "Neutral Site" advantage, exploit the Circa Sports launch to find the best odds in the world, and turn your SEC football knowledge into NFL playoff profit.

January 22, 2026

NFL Playoffs Betting Tips in Kentucky: Football Parlays, Over/Unders, and More!

For the 2025 NFL Playoffs, Kentucky represents one of the most interesting "crossroads" markets in the US. Bordered by the NFL strongholds of Ohio (Bengals) and Tennessee (Titans), but lacking a pro team of its own, Kentucky bettors are "Free Agents."

This guide is your weapon. We'll show you how to leverage the "Neutral Site" advantage, exploit the Circa Sports launch to find the best odds in the world, and turn your SEC football knowledge into NFL playoff profit.

Understanding NFL Playoff Betting Basics (Kentucky Edition)

The Cincinnati Suburbs Effect

Northern Kentucky (Covington, Newport) is effectively Cincinnati. If the Bengals are in the playoff hunt, the lines in Northern Kentucky skew heavily toward Cincy.

The Strategy: If you want to bet ON the Bengals, drive south to Lexington or bet on an app that doesn't geolocate you as "Cincinnati Market." If you want to bet AGAINST the Bengals (fade the public), bet from Covington. The books there will give you a better price on the opponent (+3.5 instead of +3) to balance their massive Bengals liability.

Circa Sports: The Game Changer

In July 2025, Circa Sports launched in Kentucky at The Mint Gaming Hall and on mobile. This is a massive deal.

Why it Matters: Circa is the "Sharpest Book in the World." They welcome winning bettors and post higher limits than anyone else. Most apps (DraftKings/FanDuel) "shade" their lines (-115). Circa posts "fair" lines (-108).

Over the course of the playoffs, betting on Circa saves you roughly 5-7% in vigorish. If you're in Kentucky and not checking Circa's lines, you're voluntarily losing money.

Shurzy Tip: Download Circa Sports even if you don't bet there. Look at their lines. They're the "Answer Key" to the test. If you're betting blindly on FanDuel without checking Circa, you're guessing.

Parlay Betting Strategies for NFL Playoffs

Kentucky bettors love parlays (a habit carried over from horse racing "Exotic" wagers). But an NFL parlay is not a Trifecta. Here's how to bet them smarter.

The Wildcat Alumni Parlay

Kentucky produces elite NFL defensive talent (Josh Paschal, Za'Darius Smith, Mike Edwards). Bet on the defense.

The Play: Lions Defense Sacks OVER (Paschal/Smith) + Lions Moneyline

Kentucky fans know these players. They know Za'Darius Smith dominates in cold weather. Use your familiarity with former UK stars to find edge cases in "Individual Defensive Player" or "Team Sack" markets that national bettors ignore.

The Racing Logic (Round Robins)

Horse players understand that "boxing" a bet reduces risk. Apply this to the NFL.

Instead of a 4-leg parlay that loses if one team fails, play a Round Robin (2s and 3s). Pick 4 underdogs covering the spread. Play them as "2-team parlays" (6 total bets).

If 2 of the 4 cover, you break even. If 3 cover, you profit. If 4 cover, you sweep. In the high-variance playoffs, this is safer than a "Death or Glory" 4-leg ticket.

The Middling Opportunity

Kentucky has access to 8+ sportsbooks. You bet Ravens -3 on Monday at Circa. On Saturday, public money pushes the line to Ravens -6 on BetMGM.

The Play: Bet the opponent +6 on BetMGM.

If the Ravens win by 3, 4, or 5, you win BOTH bets. If they win by other margins, you push one and lose one (small loss due to vig). This low-risk, high-reward shot is only possible because you have multiple competitive books.

Shurzy Tip: bet365 offers the "Early Payout" promo (if your team goes up by 17, the bet is paid as a win instantly). Bet on underdogs on the moneyline. Underdogs often start fast in playoffs and go up 17-0 before the favorite wakes up. On bet365, you win when they go up 17-0. It protects you from the collapse.

Over/Under Betting in Playoff Football

The Bourbon Trail Weather

Kentucky weather in January is unpredictable: ice, rain, and wind. This affects the "Gateway to the South" region (Titans/Bengals games).

The Mudder Theory: If a game is played in Cincinnati or Nashville in freezing rain (common in January), the field gets sloppy. Bet Running Back Rush Attempts OVER. Coaches stop throwing the slick ball. They grind it out.

The Shootout Fallacy

Kentucky bettors, used to high-scoring SEC football, often bias toward the Over. The reality? NFL playoff games average 43 points. Regular season games average 46. The intensity slows the game down.

If you see a total of 51 or higher in a playoff game, look to the Under. The public bets the Over because they want to see points. The sharps bet the Under because they trust the defenses.

Shurzy Tip: Before the playoffs start, check your email for "Reload Bonuses." Deposit $500 to get $100 in bonus bets. Use the $100 bonus bet on a longshot (like Exact Score) to convert it to cash with high upside.

Read more: What Is Over/Under Betting in NBA

Additional Playoff Betting Markets

Race to 10 Points

In the playoffs, the home team usually feeds off the energy early. Bet the home favorite to win the "Race to 10." This creates a win condition that resolves in the 1st Quarter, allowing you to reinvest or hedge later.

Anytime Touchdown (The Ray Davis Rule)

Former UK star Ray Davis (Bills) is a playoff weapon. The Bills use him as a hammer in the red zone to save Josh Allen from hits.

The Play: Ray Davis Anytime TD

His odds are usually higher (+200) than the starter James Cook, but his red zone usage is elite.

Shurzy Tip: Kentucky is one of the few states that allows 18-year-olds to bet on sports (DraftKings/FanDuel/Circa). This is unique. Most states are 21+. If you're 18-20, take advantage of this opportunity responsibly.

Kentucky-Specific Betting Information

Where to Bet: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, bet365, Circa Sports, BetRivers, Fanatics

Age: 18+ (one of the few states allowing sports betting at 18)

Tax Rate: Kentucky has a 14.25% tax rate on operators. For you, winnings are taxable income.

College Sports: You CAN bet on Kentucky/Louisville college games. No restrictions.

Responsible Gambling: 1-800-GAMBLER. The state allocates 2.5% of tax revenue to problem gambling funds.

Shurzy Tip: You CAN bet on Kentucky/Louisville college games. No restrictions like other states. Use your SEC knowledge to find edges on college bowl games and March Madness while you're crushing NFL playoffs.

Common Playoff Betting Mistakes to Avoid

The Basketball Mindset

In basketball (UK's religion), momentum swings are constant. In football, a 14-point lead is harder to erase.

Don't live bet a team down 14-0 thinking "they'll go on a run." In the NFL playoffs, teams down 14-0 lose 85% of the time. Don't chase.

Ignoring Circa

I'll say it again: Download Circa Sports. Even if you don't bet there, look at their lines. They're the "Answer Key" to the test.

Wrapping It Up

Kentucky is the land of opportunity for the 2025 playoffs. You have 18+ betting, access to the world's sharpest book (Circa), and a neutral market that isn't poisoned by homer bias.

Use the bet365 Early Payout, box your parlays like a horse player, and respect the lower scoring nature of playoff football. The race is on.

F*ck Spreadsheets. Just picks that hit.

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