NFL Point Spread Matchups for Week 3 (and Predictions)

Eagles (-6.5) vs. Giants

Philadelphia at home has been a point spread machine. They’ve covered in 14 of their last 16 games at Lincoln Financial Field, usually by wide margins. The Giants, meanwhile, stumble out of the gate most years. Their offensive line issues—highlighted again on the NFL injury report—make Daniel Jones a sitting duck against the Eagles’ pass rush.

Why this matters for NFL betting today: Philly averages nearly 29 points per game at home, while New York struggles to hit 20 against playoff-caliber defenses. If you’re into safer NFL betting games, Eagles -6.5 is a solid anchor. Grab it before it hits -7 or worse.

Prediction: Eagles cover by double digits, 31–17.

Lions (+3) at Packers

Here’s where spreads get tricky. Detroit is catching three points on the road, but the Lions have quietly dominated this matchup, winning six of their last ten against Green Bay. Jared Goff’s offense looks sharper than expected, while Detroit’s O-line has kept him upright in key spots.

The Packers’ defense is stout against the run, but they’ve bled yardage on explosive passing plays. That’s where Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams come in. If the Lions hit two deep shots, they’re live to win outright.

For NFL betting spreads, this is a classic case of the public siding with the home favorite while sharp money waits for Detroit at +3 or +3.5. Sprinkle the moneyline, but the spread itself is the play.

Prediction: Lions cover, lose close 24–23 or pull off outright win.

Ravens (+2.5) at Bills

This line is pure market respect for Buffalo. At home, favored by less than a field goal, oddsmakers expect fireworks. The total sits north of 52, and both quarterbacks are primed for shootouts.

Baltimore is dangerous as a road underdog. Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability keeps defenses honest, and Buffalo’s linebackers have been exposed by mobile QBs before. On the flip side, Josh Allen at home with Stefon Diggs healthy is tough to fade.

This is the kind of point spread betting spot where you shop lines. If you can grab Ravens +3, it’s gold. The NFL betting public will lean Bills, so waiting for movement might be smart.

Prediction: Ravens keep it close, lose 30–28. Baltimore +3 covers.

Cowboys (-4.5) vs. Commanders

Dallas at home laying less than a touchdown feels short. Their defense ranks top three in sacks and turnovers forced. Washington’s offense is better with Sam Howell, but the O-line remains shaky. Micah Parsons could wreck this game by himself.

NFL odds and scores suggest a low-scoring game here, with totals around 43. That usually favors the team with the better pass rush. Public money is split, but sharp bettors are leaning Dallas early.

For NFL betting this week, laying -4.5 is reasonable, but if it climbs to -6, you might pivot to Dallas in a teaser or as part of parlay bets.

Prediction: Cowboys win and cover, 24–13.

Bears (+7.5) at Vikings

Minnesota is a heavy favorite, but laying more than a touchdown feels like a trap. The Bears’ offense has been inconsistent, but Justin Fields always has the chance to break big plays. Chicago also tends to cover as road underdogs, even if they don’t win outright.

The Vikings’ defense is bottom-tier against the pass, which sets up well for Fields hitting DJ Moore deep. On the flip side, Justin Jefferson is due for a touchdown after a quiet start.

This spread screams backdoor cover potential. For NFL betting props, Fields’ rushing yards or Jefferson anytime TD might be smarter than sweating the spread.

Prediction: Vikings win 27–23, Bears cover +7.5.

Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Jets

Divisional games are always tight, but Miami’s offense gives them an edge. Tua Tagovailoa with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is tough for any secondary. The Jets’ defense is elite, but their offense doesn’t score enough to keep pace.

The spread under a field goal suggests value. Miami’s offense averages over 28 points per game through two weeks. If the Jets can’t generate turnovers, they’ll struggle to cover.

For nfl betting player props, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards over/under is worth a look, as the Jets have allowed chunk plays to WR1s in the past.

Prediction: Dolphins win and cover, 27–20.

How to Approach Week 3 NFL Betting Spreads

• Track injuries: The NFL injury report is crucial for spreads. Offensive line absences swing totals and spreads by multiple points.
  
  
• Line movement matters: Early week spreads can differ by a point or more from Sunday morning. Always check nfl odds by week for the latest updates.
  
  
• Public vs. sharp money: The NFL betting public loves favorites and overs. If you see heavy public action one way but the line doesn’t move, it may be sharp money on the other side.
  
  
• Parlay strategy: Safer spreads like Eagles -6.5 and Dolphins -2.5 work as anchors. Add riskier plays like Lions +3 for better payout.

Final Takeaways

NFL point spread betting is about more than just picking winners. It’s about finding mismatches in lines, fading public overreactions, and spotting value before Vegas adjusts. Week 3 offers plenty of these spots, from division rivalries to high-total shootouts.

Stick with the numbers, respect the market, and remember: nfl betting is supposed to be fun. Use spreads to shape your card, but don’t be afraid to mix in props or totals when the edge is clearer.

Check out our full betting toolset to start spotting profitable lines.