NFL

NFL Wild Card Betting: 49ers vs Eagles Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Matchup Analysis

The 49ers lost their two best defenders. Nick Bosa tore his ACL in Week 3. Fred Warner went down with an ankle injury in Week 7. Since then, their defense ranked 31st in success rate and 26th in EPA. They got embarrassed 13-3 by Seattle in Week 18 with the top seed on the line. Now they're traveling to Philly to face an Eagles team that's 5-0 at home in playoffs under Nick Sirianni. This isn't going well for San Francisco.

January 22, 2026

Quick Answer

Best bet: Eagles -5.5 (-110). Sirianni 5-0 at home in playoffs, 49ers defense 31st in success rate without Bosa/Warner.

Best total play: Under 44.5 (-110). Line dropped from 46.5 to 44.5, both teams rely on run game, outdoor playoff environment.

Best player prop: Saquon Barkley Over 79.5 rushing yards (-110). 49ers rank 31st vs. run, Barkley averaged 100 YPG last 4 weeks.

Biggest mistake: Overvaluing 49ers' 12-5 record. Played easiest schedule, lost Bosa (ACL) and Warner (ankle) to season-enders.

Pro tip: Eagles are 10-7 ATS (58.8%), 49ers defense ranked 26th in EPA since Bosa injury Week 3.

The Matchup

Who's Playing: No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (12-5) @ No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

When: Sunday, January 11, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Watch: FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews)

The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles host a familiar playoff foe in a rematch of the 2023 NFC Championship Game, where Philadelphia demolished San Francisco 31-7 after Brock Purdy suffered a torn UCL on the first drive.

Both teams enter the playoffs limping. The Eagles lost their finale by resting starters and losing a chance at the No. 2 seed. The 49ers were embarrassed 13-3 by Seattle with the NFC's top seed on the line. The key storyline: Can the injury-ravaged 49ers defense stop Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley at the Linc?

The Lines

Spread: 49ers +5.5 (-110) | Eagles -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline: 49ers +198 | Eagles -240

Total: 44.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)

The line opened at Eagles -3, moved to -3.5, then jumped to -5 and -5.5 as sharp money hammered Philadelphia. The total dropped from 46.5 to 44.5, crossing key numbers 45 and 46.

Market Movement

Sharp money moved fast on this one. The spread jumped from Eagles -3 to -5.5, a massive two and a half point move. That shows heavy sharp money on Philadelphia.

The total dropped from 46.5 to 44.5, crossing key numbers. That's sharp action on the under. The moneyline went from Eagles -240 to -265 at various books.

Key trends:

Eagles 5-0 at home in playoffs under Sirianni, 0-2 on road
Jalen Hurts 5-0 in home playoff games (perfect home playoff record)
Eagles 10-7 ATS this season (58.8%), covered 3 of 6 times as 5.5+ favorites
49ers defense 31st in success rate since Nick Bosa injury Week 3
49ers defense 26th in EPA since Bosa went down
Eagles went 2-3 vs. teams with .600+ win %, averaging 19.4 PPG in those games
49ers 6-0 in Wild Card/Divisional Round games since 2019 under Shanahan

Breaking Down Both Teams

Philadelphia Eagles

Nick Sirianni's Eagles enter their fifth consecutive playoff appearance seeking to become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the 2004 Patriots. Despite inconsistent offense all season, the Eagles' home playoff dominance and elite defense create a nightmare matchup for the injury-riddled 49ers.

Offensive strengths:

Jalen Hurts threw for 2,929 yards and 22 pass TDs while adding 376 rush yards and 8 rush TDs. He's 5-0 in home playoff games with a perfect home playoff record.

Saquon Barkley rushed for 940 yards on 3.9 YPC with 6 rush TDs and 37 catches for 273 yards. He averaged 100 rushing YPG over the last 4 weeks.

A.J. Brown is the Eagles' primary receiver and will exploit the depleted 49ers secondary. Dallas Goedert leads the team with 11 TDs and 15 red zone targets. The Eagles' offensive line is healthy after Week 18 rest.

Defensive strengths:

The Eagles defense allows the lowest passer rating to tight ends (72.2) in the NFL. Jalen Carter, Nakobe Dean, and Haason Reddick anchor an elite front seven. They rank 5th in scoring defense at 18.9 PPG. Lane Johnson (foot) is questionable but practiced fully Friday.

The concerns:

They're 2-3 vs. teams with .600+ win percentage, averaging 19.4 PPG in those games. They struggled in their season finale with a 24-17 loss despite resting starters. Their passing offense ranked 18th in EPA per play during the regular season. They haven't "clicked" offensively for four full quarters all season.

San Francisco 49ers

Kyle Shanahan's 49ers had Super Bowl aspirations entering the season, but devastating injuries to Nick Bosa (ACL, Week 3) and Fred Warner (ankle, Week 7) have turned their defense into the NFL's worst unit over the second half of the season.

Offensive strengths:

Brock Purdy threw for 2,167 yards, 20 TDs, and 10 INTs with a 69.4% completion rate in 9 games. He posted a 148.8 passer rating vs. the Eagles in his career (314 yards, 4 TDs in 1 game).

Christian McCaffrey rushed for 1,087 yards on 4.9 YPC as an elite pass-catching RB. He rushed for 70+ yards in 5 of his last 7 games with a TD in 6 of those 7.

George Kittle put up 628 yards, 57 catches, and 7 TDs despite missing 6 games. He has a 140.6 passer rating when targeted (best TE-QB duo in NFL). Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall provide WR depth.

Offensive concerns:

Purdy suffered a "stinger" in the Week 18 loss but cleared to play. They scored just 3 points vs. the Seahawks in Week 18 with the No. 1 seed on the line. They averaged 127 passing yards vs. Seattle, their worst performance of the season. Trent Williams (hamstring) is questionable, which would be a massive loss if he can't go.

Defensive catastrophe:

Nick Bosa is OUT with a torn ACL from Week 3 and won't return this season. Fred Warner is OUT with an ankle injury from Week 7 and could possibly return for the NFC title game at best.

Their defense ranked 31st in success rate since Bosa's injury and 26th in EPA since Bosa went down. They have only 20 sacks all season (dead last in NFL) and 6 INTs (2nd-fewest).

They're the first team ever to make playoffs with 20 or fewer sacks AND fewer than 10 INTs. Luke Gifford and Dee Winters (LBs) are questionable, further depleting the run defense. Their LB corps is devastated with Warner, Tatum Bethune, Dee Winters, and Nick Martin all injured. They allow 99 receptions and 10 TDs to tight ends, worst in NFL vs. TEs.

Expert Consensus

Everyone's on the Eagles. Covers likes Eagles -5 with a 25-20 score. Yahoo Sports has Eagles 20, 49ers 14. Fox Sports went contrarian with 49ers 23, Eagles 21.

Dimers Model gives the Eagles a 69% win probability. BetMGM and Caesars both moved the line from -3.5 to -5.5, favoring the Eagles. Most sharp bettors cite the 49ers' defensive collapse since losing Bosa and Warner.

Our Top Plays

Spread Pick: Eagles -5.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sirianni is 5-0 at home in playoffs. Hurts is 5-0 in home playoff games. The 49ers defense is 31st in success rate and 26th in EPA since Bosa's injury.

San Francisco allowed a 13-3 shutout loss to the Seahawks with the top seed on the line. The Eagles rested starters Week 18 and will be fresh and motivated. The 49ers' LB corps is decimated by injuries with Warner, Bethune, Winters, and Martin all out or limited.

Trent Williams (hamstring) is questionable. If he's out, the Eagles' D-line dominates. The Eagles defense allows the lowest passer rating to TEs (72.2), which neutralizes Kittle. The 49ers have only 20 sacks all season (dead last) and won't pressure Hurts.

Line movement from -3 to -5.5 shows sharp money on the Eagles. The Eagles covered 3 of 6 games as 5.5+ favorites this season. Multiple expert sources favor Eagles -5.5, including Covers, Yahoo Sports, and top bookmakers.

Look, the 49ers had a nice season, but they're cooked. Without Bosa and Warner, they can't stop anyone. The Eagles are going to run the ball down their throat with Saquon, and Hurts will pick apart their secondary when he needs to. This is the easiest play of the weekend.

Total Pick: Under 44.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The line dropped from 46.5 to 44.5, crossing key numbers 45 and 46. That's sharp money on the under, and bookmakers are comfortable with it. Both teams rely heavily on the run game with Barkley and McCaffrey.

The Eagles went 2-3 vs. teams with .600+ win percentage, averaging 19.4 PPG in those games. The 49ers scored just 3 points vs. the Seahawks in Week 18 in a playoff-stakes game.

The outdoor playoff environment at the Linc favors defense. The Eagles' offense hasn't "clicked for four full quarters" all season. Playoff game script favors running the clock and field position battles.

The Eagles defense is elite vs. TEs (72.2 rating), which neutralizes Kittle. Fewer possessions with both teams grinding the clock means fewer points. Expert consensus favors under 44.5, including Matt Russell from Yahoo Sports and the line movement tells the whole story.

Both teams are going to try to control the clock and keep it on the ground. This isn't a shootout. Cash the under.

Moneyline Value: Eagles ML -240 (Half-Unit Play) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

At -240, the Eagles offer decent value for bettors who want to avoid the spread. Sirianni's 5-0 home playoff record and the 49ers' defensive collapse make this a safe play for conservative bettors. If you don't want to sweat the spread, just take the Eagles to win straight up.

Player Props We Actually Like

Saquon Barkley Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The 49ers rank 31st in defensive success rate vs. the run since Bosa's injury. Barkley averaged 100 rushing YPG over the last 4 weeks. The 49ers' LB corps is decimated with Warner OUT and Gifford/Winters questionable.

The Eagles as 5.5-point favorites means game script favors running the clock. The 49ers allowed 150 rush yards to Bears RBs in a recent loss. Barkley rushed for 940 yards on 3.9 YPC this season despite injuries.

Game script supports 20+ carries for Barkley if the Eagles lead. This is your best prop bet of the slate.

Odds: -110 to -113

Christian McCaffrey Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

McCaffrey rushed for 70+ yards in 5 of his last 7 games. The Eagles rank 18th in rush defense success rate, so they're exploitable. McCaffrey scored a TD in 6 of his last 7 games.

The 49ers will lean on the run game to keep Hurts off the field. He averaged 67.9 rush YPG on 4.9 YPC this season. The two games below 70 yards were vs. Top 5 rush defenses (Cleveland, Seattle).

Odds: -110 to -114

Dallas Goedert Anytime TD (+155) ⭐⭐⭐

Goedert leads the Eagles with 11 TDs and 15 red zone targets. The 49ers allow 99 receptions and 10 TDs to tight ends (worst in NFL). The 49ers' LB injuries create a massive mismatch vs. TEs.

He's Hurts' red zone weapon in playoff environment. He scored a TD in 6 of his last 10 games.

Odds: +155 to +175

Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-135) ⭐⭐

Barkley scored 6 rush TDs this season and scored a TD in 6 of his last 8 games. The 49ers allow a 31.6% TD rate to opposing RBs (31st in NFL).

The Eagles as favorites will lean on red zone rushing attack. Simulation models project 39.4% TD probability.

Odds: -135 to -145

Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-135) ⭐⭐

McCaffrey scored a TD in 6 of his last 7 games. The Eagles allow 20 rushing TDs vs. 14 passing TDs, so they're vulnerable on the ground. 13 of those 20 rush TDs were by RBs.

McCaffrey does everything for the 49ers offense as a rush/receiving threat. He's an ideal target vs. the Eagles' defensive profile.

Odds: -135 to -145

Other Props Worth Considering

Jalen Hurts Anytime Rushing TD (+105): Hurts rushed for 8 TDs this season despite a down year. The "Tush Push" remains a weapon in the red zone. The 49ers allowed only 1 rushing TD to QBs, but it was vs. mobile Jaxson Dart. Hurts scored a rushing TD in 8 of 14 games this season (57.1%). Plus-money odds at +105 offer excellent value. Simulation models project a 39.4% rushing TD probability.

Saquon Barkley Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-114): The line surged from 9.5 to 15.5 yards, showing sharp money recognizes the game plan. The Eagles as 5.5-point favorites project to control game flow. Checkdown opportunities increase in the second half with a lead. The 49ers allow the 2nd-most receptions to RBs in the NFL. Barkley averaged 19.5 receiving YPG with 37 catches.

George Kittle Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114): Kittle averaged 69.8 receiving YPG in 9 games played. Purdy's passer rating jumps to 140.6 when targeting Kittle (best in NFL). Kittle had 88 yards on 8 catches vs. the Bears in his last healthy game. He leads all TEs with +156 yards over expected despite missing 6 games. Purdy looks for Kittle whenever he's in trouble or needs a big play. Risk: The Eagles allow the lowest passer rating to TEs (72.2) in the NFL.

Brock Purdy Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-114): Purdy averaged 240.8 passing YPG in 9 games this season. He posted a 148.8 passer rating vs. the Eagles in his career (314 yards, 4 TDs). The Eagles allow 227.2 pass YPG (22nd in NFL). The 49ers will need to throw to keep up if they fall behind. He cleared 221.5 in 7 of 9 games (77.8%). Risk: Purdy threw for only 127 yards vs. the Seahawks in Week 18.

Jalen Hurts Over 207.5 Passing Yards (-113): Hurts averaged 208.5 passing YPG this season. The 49ers allow 227.2 pass YPG (22nd in NFL). The 49ers have only 20 sacks (dead last), so Hurts will have time. He cleared 207.5 in 8 of 14 games (57.1%). Simulation projects 224 passing yards.

How the Eagles Win This Game

The 49ers' defense has been catastrophic since losing Nick Bosa (ACL, Week 3) and Fred Warner (ankle, Week 7). They rank 31st in success rate and 26th in EPA since Bosa went down.

Against the Seahawks in Week 18 with the No. 1 seed on the line, they got embarrassed 13-3. They allowed 13 points while scoring just 3. That's pathetic.

The Eagles' offensive line is fresh after resting Week 18 and will dominate the undermanned 49ers front seven. Nick Sirianni is 5-0 at home in the playoffs. Jalen Hurts is 5-0 in home playoff games. The Eagles are 0-2 on the road in playoffs under Sirianni, which makes the Linc their fortress.

The 61,000+ fans at Lincoln Financial Field will create a hostile environment for a 49ers team that's 0-1 in road playoff games since 2019.

The run game advantage is massive:

The Eagles will pound Saquon Barkley against the NFL's 31st-ranked run defense. With Fred Warner out and Luke Gifford/Dee Winters questionable, the 49ers' LB corps is decimated. Barkley averaged 100 rushing YPG over the last 4 weeks. As 5.5-point favorites, the Eagles will lean heavily on the run to control the clock.

Kittle gets neutralized:

George Kittle is the 49ers' best weapon, but the Eagles allow the lowest passer rating to tight ends (72.2) in the NFL. This neutralizes San Francisco's primary receiving threat and forces Brock Purdy to beat them with Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall. Good luck with that.

The 49ers' Best Shot

The 49ers' best chance is Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle combining for 250+ yards while the offense controls time of possession. If Brock Purdy can exploit the Eagles' 22nd-ranked pass defense (he posted a 148.8 passer rating vs. Philly in his career), the 49ers keep it close.

But without Bosa (20 sacks last year), the 49ers can't pressure Hurts, who will pick apart their secondary. The 49ers are 6-0 in Wild Card/Divisional Round games since 2019, but they've never played without both Bosa and Warner.

Our Final Call

Score: Eagles 27, 49ers 17

ATS Winner: Eagles -5.5 ✓

Total: Under 44.5 ✓

The Eagles' home playoff dominance, fresh legs after resting Week 18, and elite defense overwhelm the injury-ravaged 49ers. Saquon Barkley rushes for 100+ yards and 2 TDs, while Jalen Hurts adds a rushing TD and limits turnovers.

Christian McCaffrey rushes for 70+ yards and a TD, but Brock Purdy throws a pick-six to seal it. The Eagles win comfortably and cover, advancing to the Divisional Round. Both teams stay under 44.5 as the Eagles control the clock with Barkley.

Confidence levels:

Eagles -5.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Under 44.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Eagles ML -240: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High confidence)

This is a max-bet spot on Eagles -5.5 and Under 44.5. Sirianni's 5-0 home playoff record, the 49ers' 31st-ranked defense without Bosa/Warner, and sharp line movement from -3 to -5.5 creates one of the strongest favorites of Wild Card Weekend. Load up on the Eagles spread, hammer the under, and sprinkle Saquon Barkley Over 79.5 rushing yards as your best player prop.