NFL

NFL Wild Card Betting: Bills vs Jaguars Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Over Under Analysis

Buffalo's about to add another chapter to the saddest road playoff story in NFL history. The Bills haven't won away from home in the postseason since 1993 (that's 0-11 for those counting). Meanwhile, Jacksonville is on an 8-game heater and their defense eats running backs for breakfast. This might be the easiest fade of Wild Card weekend.

January 22, 2026

What You Need to Know

Here's everything that matters before you place your bets:

Best bet: Jaguars -1.5 (-120) — Jacksonville 8-0 SU/ATS streak at home, Bills 0-11 on road in playoffs since 1993

Best total play: Under 51.5 (-108) — Jaguars allow 85.6 rush YPG (1st in NFL), Bills face elite defense for first time

Best player prop: Travis Etienne Over 64.5 rushing yards (-109) — Bills rank 30th in YPC allowed (5.1), Jaguars will lean on ground game

Biggest mistake: Assuming Bills' road experience matters — Buffalo 4-15 all-time in road playoffs, 0-11 since 1992

Pro tip: Jaguars 12-5 ATS this season (best in NFL), Bills only 8-9 ATS

This Wild Card showdown features a red-hot Jacksonville team riding an eight-game win streak against a Buffalo squad haunted by playoff road demons. The Jaguars, under rookie head coach Liam Coen, pulled off one of the greatest single-season turnarounds in NFL history, going from 4-13 to 13-4. Josh Allen and the Bills are hunting for their first road playoff win since 1993. Good luck with that.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

The Matchup

Here's what we're working with Sunday afternoon:

Who's Playing: No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5) @ No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)

When: Sunday, January 11, 2026, 1:00 PM ET

Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida

Watch: CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson)

Where the Lines Are

Here's what the books are offering:

Spread: Jaguars -1.5 (-103) | Bills +1.5 (-129)

Moneyline: Jaguars -106 | Bills -110

Total: 51.5 (Over -112 / Under -108)

The line opened at Bills -1.5 but flipped to Jaguars -1.5 after sharp money came in. Despite 61% of public tickets on Jacksonville, this represents a classic situation where the public backs the hot home team and sharps see value on both sides.

What the Smart Money Is Doing

The betting market is telling a story here:

On the spread:

61% of tickets on Jaguars
58% of money on Jaguars

On the total:

57.85% of bets on over
56.03% of handle on over
But the line moved DOWN from 52.5 to 51.5

Line movement suggests sharp money is expecting a lower-scoring playoff game despite public hammering the over.

Some trends worth knowing:

Jaguars 12-5 ATS this season (tied for best in NFL, +6.5 units / 34.76% ROI)
Bills 8-9 ATS this season (-1.95 units / -10.4% ROI)
Jaguars 8-0 straight up and ATS in last 8 games
Bills 4-15 all-time in road playoff games (.211 win %)
Bills 0-11 in road playoff games since 1992
Jaguars 7-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home this season

Breaking Down Both Teams

Jacksonville Jaguars

Liam Coen's first season as head coach has been remarkable. The 40-year-old former Rams and Buccaneers offensive coordinator has led Jacksonville to join the 2025 Patriots and 1999 Colts as the only teams in NFL history to win 13+ games the year after losing 13+ games.

What makes their offense explosive:

Trevor Lawrence posted career-high 38 total touchdowns (23 pass, 6 rush, 9 receiving)
Jaguars averaged franchise-record 27.9 PPG under Coen's play-calling
Scored 474 points, shattering franchise record
Lawrence threw for 3,210 yards with 59.7% completion rate, added 302 rush yards
Parker Washington emerged as deep threat: 847 yards, 5 TDs, including 2 punt return TDs

What makes their defense dominant:

#1 rushing defense in NFL: 85.6 YPG allowed, no RB over 75 yards all season
Only faced 369 rush attempts (fewest in NFL), teams attack vulnerable pass defense instead
31 takeaways (23 INTs, 9 fumbles) ranks 2nd in NFL
Allow 19.8 PPG (8th in NFL)
Only 68.0 YPG allowed to RBs specifically

Their home field advantage is real:

7-1 straight up at EverBank Stadium (7-2 ATS)
8-game win streak, all by double digits except two overtime wins
Coen's offense controls pace with 2nd-highest time of possession

Buffalo Bills

Despite Josh Allen's MVP-caliber season, the Bills' glaring weaknesses and horrific road playoff history loom large.

What makes their offense dangerous:

Josh Allen posted 39 total touchdowns (25 pass, 14 rush), 3,668 yards passing, 579 rush yards
69.3% completion rate (career-high), elite dual-threat capability
James Cook led NFL with 1,621 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC, 12 TDs
Bills rank #1 in NFL in rushing (159.6 YPG)
Khalil Shakir leads receivers: 72 catches, 719 yards, 4 TDs on 19.8% target share

The defensive issues are brutal:

31st in defensive rush EPA and DVOA (worst among playoff teams)
30th in yards per carry allowed (5.1 YPC to RBs)
136.2 rushing YPG allowed (28th in NFL)
18th in red zone TD percentage allowed (69.5%)
TreVeyon Henderson ran for 148 yards on just 14 carries against them in Week 15

The road playoff demons are very real:

4-15 all-time in road playoff games (.211 win %)
0-11 in road playoff games since 1993
Last road playoff win: January 17, 1993 AFC Championship vs. Miami (29-10)
Lost road playoff games in 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2025
5-3 SU on road in regular season, but 4-4 ATS

What the Experts Are Saying

Unlike the unanimous Patriots pick in the other Wild Card game, this matchup splits experts. Here's where the media landed:

ESPN Maldonado: Bills 27, Jaguars 20
ESPN Moody: Jaguars 31, Bills 27
ESPN Solak: Jaguars 23, Bills 21
ESPN Walder: Bills 34, Jaguars 30
FPI: Jaguars 51.5% (by 0.4 points on average)
Fox Sports: Jaguars 28, Bills 20
Covers: Jaguars 25, Bills 24

The split reflects uncertainty around Bills' road playoff history versus Allen's talent. Most lean Jacksonville by a field goal.

Our Top Plays

Spread Pick: Jaguars -1.5 (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a max-bet situation. Here's why:

Jaguars are 12-5 ATS this season (best in NFL) while the Bills are 8-9 ATS. Jacksonville is 8-0 straight up and ATS in their last 8 games. The Bills' road playoff history speaks for itself: 0-11 since 1993, 4-15 all-time.

The Bills cannot stop the run (31st in rush EPA), and the Jaguars have the #1 rush defense in football. Sharp money moved this line from Bills -1.5 to Jaguars -1.5 despite public backing Jacksonville. Better team, better record, better ATS record, home field, and momentum all point to the Jaguars.

Multiple expert sources favor Jaguars -1.5, including Fox Sports, Covers, and Rotoworld Bet.

Total Pick: Under 51.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The line moved DOWN from 52.5 to 51.5 despite 58% of money on the over. That's sharp action on the under, and here's why it makes sense:

The Jaguars allow 85.6 rush YPG (#1 in NFL) and will neutralize the Bills' #1 rushing attack. Buffalo allows the fewest pass yards in the NFL (170.2 YPG), so Lawrence faces his toughest test. The Bills' explosive offense may struggle against a legitimate elite defense for the first time.

Playoff nerves, defensive schemes, and the Bills' inability to run the ball caps scoring potential. Weather is favorable but not conducive to a shootout (66°F, 12 mph winds).

Expert projections cluster around 20-30 points per team. Fox Sports, Covers, and FPI all project under 51 total points.

Moneyline Value: Jaguars ML (-106) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

At near pick'em odds, the Jaguars offer excellent value given their 8-game win streak, home field, and Bills' road playoff futility. If you believe Jacksonville wins, the -106 price is essentially free money compared to laying 1.5 points.

Player Props We Actually Like

Travis Etienne Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-109) ⭐⭐⭐

The Bills rank 30th in yards per carry allowed to RBs (5.1 YPC). Their defense is 31st in rush EPA and DVOA (worst among playoff teams). Etienne rushed for 1,107 yards on 4.3 YPC this season.

The Jaguars will lean heavily on the run game to control the clock and keep Allen off the field. TreVeyon Henderson ran for 148 yards on 14 carries vs. the Bills in Week 15. Coen emphasizes the run to exploit Buffalo's weakness. Etienne has cleared 64.5 in multiple games against lesser defenses.

Odds: -109 to -114

Parker Washington Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-118) ⭐⭐

Washington averaged 52 YPG over his last 3 games (347 yards, 2 TDs). The Bills pass defense ranks 1st in the NFL (170.2 YPG), but Lawrence will have to throw. Washington leads the Jaguars with 847 yards on 58 receptions.

His deep threat capability (17 catches of 20+ yards) creates big-play upside. He's cleared 48.5 in 10 of 17 games this season with a 70% hit rate on over 48.5 per Action Network PRO.

Odds: -110 to -118

Parker Washington Over 6.5 Targets ⭐⭐

Washington recorded 5+ receptions in his last 3 games and achieved 5+ catches 6 times this season. The Bills' elite pass defense forces Lawrence to throw quickly and often. Simulation models give this a 56.2% hit probability with 1.1% edge.

His enhanced role in the second half of the season as the WR1 option makes this a solid play.

Odds: Over 6.5 targets projects 56.2% hit rate

Trevor Lawrence Over 235.5-237.5 Passing Yards (-114) ⭐

Lawrence averaged 265+ yards in his last 7 games and threw for 235.5+ in 10 of 17 games this season (58.8%). The Bills allow the fewest pass yards BUT faced the 2nd-fewest pass attempts (teams run on them instead).

The Jaguars pass on 53.5% of plays in a balanced attack. If the Bills stuff the run, Lawrence must beat them through the air.

Odds: -111 to -117

Trevor Lawrence Anytime TD (+175) ⭐

Lawrence rushed for 9 TDs this season (career-high, easily). He scored a rushing TD in 4 of his last 4 games with a 28.6% rushing TD rate in 2025. The Bills allow the fewest passing yards, incentivizing the Jaguars to run.

He's a red zone weapon with his legs, posting 6 rush TDs in 66 attempts.

Odds: +175 to +202

James Cook Under 75.5-78.5 Rushing Yards (-110) ⭐⭐

The Jaguars allow 85.6 rush YPG (#1 in NFL). No RB has rushed for 75+ yards vs. Jacksonville all season. They allow only 68.0 YPG to RBs specifically.

Cook has 6 fumbles this season (leads NFL RBs). Simulation models project Cook under 75.5 hits 58.9% of the time. If the Bills fall behind, Cook's carries decrease significantly.

Odds: -105 to -110

Josh Allen Over 230.5 Passing Yards ⭐

Allen averaged 295.3 passing yards in 3 career games vs. Jacksonville and exceeded 230.5 in the last 3 straight meetings. If the Jaguars stop the run, Allen is forced to throw.

He averaged 258.5 passing YPG this season. Favorable Jacksonville weather (66°F) helps the passing game.

Odds: -110 to -115

Other Props Worth Considering

Josh Allen 2+ Passing TDs (+110): Allen threw 2+ TDs in 9 of 16 games this season. If the Bills fall behind early, Allen is forced to throw more. The Jaguars play Cover-3 and Cover-6, and Allen completes 72.4% vs. those schemes. At +110, this offers value for playoff desperation mode.

Josh Allen Anytime Rushing TD: Allen has 14 rushing TDs this season but may be more conservative in the playoffs given a foot injury. Monitor his health and usage before betting this.

Khalil Shakir Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-109): Shakir leads the Bills with 19.8% target share and averaged 44.9 YPG this season (719 yards in 16 games). He's Allen's security blanket on short/intermediate routes. If Cook is neutralized, Shakir becomes the primary outlet. He cleared 44.5 in 8+ games this season.

Khalil Shakir Anytime TD (+255): Shakir has 4 TDs this season, leads Bills receivers in target share (19.8%), and should see heavy volume if Allen throws 30+ times. At +255, this offers lottery ticket value.

How the Weather Plays In

Here's what we're dealing with Sunday afternoon:

Temperature: 63-66°F at kickoff (feels like 64°F)
Wind: 8-12 mph from northwest, gusts to 18-21 mph
Precipitation: 12-20% chance, minimal expected during game
Sky: Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy

The weather is the best of any Wild Card game this weekend, which is a huge relief for Buffalo after playing in frigid temperatures at home. The mild conditions favor both offenses, though the moderate winds (12 mph sustained) could affect deep passes and field goals slightly.

Jacksonville's familiarity with warm-weather home games provides no significant advantage, as both teams should operate at full offensive capacity.

What Each Team Needs to Do

Here's what the Jaguars need to focus on:

Establish the run game early and exploit the Bills' 31st-ranked rush defense with Etienne
Pressure Allen relentlessly and force turnovers and mistakes from a playoff QB on the road
Control time of possession and keep Buffalo's explosive offense off the field (Jags rank 2nd in TOP)
Protect Lawrence (he was sacked 41 times this season, must stay clean)
Capitalize on the home crowd (EverBank Stadium is 7-1 this year, 3-0 all-time in Wild Card)

Here's what the Bills need to focus on:

Break the road playoff curse and overcome the 0-11 road playoff skid since 1993
Establish the run despite the elite defense (Cook must find 80+ yards to keep Allen clean)
Allen must avoid turnovers and cannot give short fields to the opportunistic Jags defense (23 INTs)
Win the explosive play battle (Allen's deep ball vs. the Jags secondary that allows big plays)
Survive the early punch (Jaguars score first in 70% of games during their win streak)

Our Final Call

Here's how we see it playing out:

Score: Jaguars 27, Bills 23

ATS Winner: Jaguars -1.5 ✓

Total: Under 51.5 ✓

The Bills' road playoff history isn't just a narrative. It's a legitimate psychological barrier that Josh Allen cannot overcome alone. Jacksonville's eight-game winning streak, #1 rushing defense, and home-field advantage at EverBank Stadium (where they're 7-1) create the perfect storm for Buffalo's latest playoff heartbreak.

The Jaguars control the clock with Etienne, force Allen into hero-ball mode, and Trevor Lawrence makes just enough plays to advance. Liam Coen's Cinderella story continues for at least one more week.

Here's where we're putting our confidence:

Jaguars -1.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Under 51.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High confidence)
Jaguars ML -106: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High confidence)

This is a max-bet spot on Jaguars -1.5. The confluence of Jacksonville's 12-5 ATS record, elite rushing defense, and Buffalo's 0-11 road playoff drought creates one of the strongest edges of Wild Card weekend. Load up on the Jaguars spread, sprinkle moneyline at near pick'em odds, and hammer Travis Etienne rushing props against the Bills' 31st-ranked rush defense.