NFL

NFL Wild Card Betting: Broncos Bye Week Betting Guide + Futures Picks and Divisional Round Lookahead

The Broncos went from 8-9 last year to 14-3 and the AFC's #1 seed. Someone already dropped $100,000 on them at +900 to win the Super Bowl. Now they're sitting at +650, which is still the third-best odds in the league. They'll host every playoff game at Mile High, where visiting teams struggle with the altitude. The question isn't if you should bet Denver futures. It's how much.

January 22, 2026

Quick Answer

Best Super Bowl futures bet: Broncos +650 (+13.3% implied). Third-best odds, $100K bet already placed on +900, home-field advantage through AFC Championship.

Best AFC Championship bet: Broncos +350. $100K bet placed, will host all games at Mile High.

Bo Nix MVP bet: +1300 (7.1% implied). Only needs to win MVP in 54% of Broncos Super Bowl wins to have value.

Most favorable opponent: Steelers (10-7). Weakest offense, Rodgers is 42 years old, Denver wants a revenge matchup.

Toughest opponent: Bills (12-5). Josh Allen is elite. Denver's only AFC loss vs. a winning QB this season.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

The Broncos' Bye Week Status

The Denver Broncos secured the AFC's top seed by defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 19-3 in Week 18. They earned their first playoff bye since 2015 and first home playoff game since 2015. This marks a stunning turnaround from 8-9 last season to 14-3 this year, the best single-season improvement in franchise history.

Playoff Seeding & Schedule

Seed: No. 1 AFC (14-3 record)
First Game: Divisional Round, January 17-18, 2026
Location: Empower Field at Mile High
Opponent: Lowest remaining AFC seed from Wild Card Weekend

Who the Broncos Could Face

The Broncos will face the lowest remaining seed after Wild Card Weekend. Four possible opponents, ranked by probability:

1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, No. 7 seed)

Probability: 45% (Most likely)

When They Face Denver: If Chargers beat Patriots

Head-to-Head in 2025: Split 1-1 (Chargers won Week 3, Broncos won Week 18)

Projected Spread: Broncos -2.5 to -3

The Chargers won 31-28 in Week 3 at SoFi Stadium on a walk-off field goal. The Broncos dominated 19-3 in Week 18, but Justin Herbert rested. Herbert's injury is the big concern here. He fractured his hand and sat Week 18 but got cleared for playoffs. The Chargers have the #5 total defense (285.2 YPG) with an elite secondary. Jim Harbaugh is 5-2-1 ATS as underdog this season.

Key factors: The Broncos defense held Herbert to only 1 TD in Week 3. The Chargers' offensive line used 29 different starting combinations (most in NFL). Denver wants revenge for the Week 3 loss.

Betting Edge: Broncos -2.5 offers value if Herbert's hand limits him.

2. Buffalo Bills (12-5, No. 6 seed)

Probability: 36% (Second most likely)

When They Face Denver: If Bills beat Jaguars AND Patriots beat Chargers

Head-to-Head in 2025: Did not play

Projected Spread: Broncos +0.5 to -1.5

This is the toughest draw for Denver. Josh Allen is an elite dual-threat QB. The Bills rank #1 in rushing offense (159.6 YPG). Allen posted 39 total TDs (25 pass, 14 rush) and 3,668 yards. But the Bills are 0-11 in road playoff games since 1993, which is a massive psychological barrier.

Key factors: Allen is the only AFC QB with a winning record Denver didn't face or beat this season. The Bills' defense ranks 31st in rush EPA, so the Broncos can exploit them with the run game. Weather advantage goes to Denver (altitude at Mile High). The Bills are 4-15 all-time in road playoff games (.211 win %).

Betting Edge: Broncos ML -110 to -120 offers value given Bills' road playoff demons.

3. Houston Texans (12-5, No. 5 seed)

Probability: 18% (Third most likely)

When They Face Denver: If Texans beat Steelers AND (Bills/Chargers lose)

Head-to-Head in 2025: Broncos won 18-15 in Week 9

Projected Spread: Broncos -1.5 to -2

Denver escaped 18-15 in Week 9 after C.J. Stroud suffered a first-quarter concussion. Stroud is healthy now with 8 TDs and 2 INTs over his last 5 games. The Texans have the #1 total defense (285.2 YPG) and #2 scoring defense (18.8 PPG). Will Anderson Jr. (12 sacks) and Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) form an elite pass rush.

Key factors: The Broncos beat a Stroud-less Texans by only 3 points. A rematch with a healthy Stroud is tougher. The Texans' defense forced 31 total takeaways this season. "Instant classic" potential with two elite defenses in a low-scoring affair.

Betting Edge: Under 38.5-40 total points has value in a defensive slugfest.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, No. 4 seed)

Probability: 11% (Least likely)

When They Face Denver: If Steelers beat Texans AND Bills/Chargers both lose

Head-to-Head in 2025: Did not play

Projected Spread: Broncos -5.5 to -6

This is the most favorable matchup for Denver. Aaron Rodgers (42 years old) returns to playoffs for the first time since 2021. The Steelers are 0-6 in playoffs since 2017, averaging 12.2 PPG in those losses. DK Metcalf returns from suspension, but the offense is still 18th in EPA.

Key factors: Rodgers posted 297 yards and 1 TD in Week 18's division-clincher vs. Ravens. The Steelers have a 23-0 home record on Monday Night Football since 1991, but road woes persist. Tomlin is 70%+ ATS as home underdog but 3-3 as road underdog. Pittsburgh's offense ranked 18th in EPA per play and won't keep up at altitude.

Betting Edge: Broncos -5.5 is a max-bet spot if Steelers advance.

Super Bowl Futures: Best Bets

Broncos to Win Super Bowl (+650) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Current Odds: +650 at most books (+700 at some)

Implied Probability: 13.3%

Payout on $100: $650 profit ($750 total return)

Denver has the third-best Super Bowl odds behind only the Seahawks (+300) and Rams (+425). A sharp bettor already placed a $100,000 bet on the Broncos at +900 (would profit $900K). They'll host every playoff game through the AFC Championship at Mile High, where the altitude gives them a massive advantage. Visiting teams struggle at 5,280 feet elevation.

The Broncos are 7-1 at home this season. Sean Payton has playoff experience with a 9-8 career playoff record and won a Super Bowl with the Saints. Bo Nix is improving with 29 TDs in his rookie season (2nd-most all-time) and a 66.3% completion rate. He had a 23:5 TD:INT ratio in 10 games vs. bottom-third defenses.

The risk factors: Nix struggled vs. elite defenses with a 6:7 TD:INT ratio in 7 games vs. top defenses. His 32.4% red zone TD rate will likely regress to the mean. His 6.7 YPA (29th in NFL) shows a conservative, dink-and-dunk offense. His aDOT of 7.4 yards means he doesn't push the ball downfield.

At +650 odds, the Broncos offer excellent value given their path. They'll likely face the Steelers or Texans first, then potentially the Jaguars or Patriots in the AFC Championship.

Recommended Bet: 2-unit play at +650 or better

Broncos to Win AFC Championship (+350) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Current Odds: +350 at BetMGM

Implied Probability: 22.2%

Payout on $100: $350 profit ($450 total return)

This is the best Broncos futures bet available. A $100,000 bet was placed on Broncos +350 to win the AFC (would profit $350K). Another $75,000 and $50,000 bets were placed on the same line.

They'll host every AFC playoff game at Mile High. The Broncos beat every AFC team on their schedule except the Chargers in Week 3. Their path to the AFC Championship likely includes facing the Steelers or Texans (beatable), then the Jaguars or Patriots (both beatable). The Bills' 0-11 road playoff record makes them an unlikely AFC Championship threat. January games in Denver favor the home team.

At +350 odds (22.2% implied), Denver's true probability is closer to 30-35% given their favorable path and home-field advantage. This is a massive edge.

Recommended Bet: 3-unit MAX play at +350

Bo Nix to Win Super Bowl MVP (+1300) ⭐⭐⭐

Current Odds: +1300 at Fanatics

Implied Probability: 7.1%

Payout on $100: $1,300 profit ($1,400 total return)

Nix only needs to win MVP in 54% of Broncos Super Bowl victories to have value. Compare: The Broncos have +650 Super Bowl odds (13.3% implied), but Nix is priced at +1300 (7.1%). In a typical Broncos win, who else would win MVP? The defense isn't dominant enough.

Courtland Sutton (100 catches, 1,202 yards, 10 TDs) could steal votes, but it's unlikely. Javonte Williams (815 rush yards, 4.8 YPC) isn't a bell-cow back. Nix's 430 rushing yards and 5 rush/receiving TDs add dual-threat appeal.

The risk factors: Nix's conservative offense (6.7 YPA) might not produce MVP-worthy stats. The defense could dominate and steal votes (Von Miller won SB50 MVP). Vance Joseph's defense allows 20.8 PPG (10th in NFL) and might outscore the offense.

At +1300 odds, this is a value play for bettors who believe Denver wins the Super Bowl. It's essentially a "Broncos win + Nix gets credit" parlay at favorable odds.

Recommended Bet: 0.5-unit lottery ticket at +1300

Broncos to Reach Super Bowl (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Current Odds: -105 (implied 51.2%)

Payout on $100: $95.24 profit ($195.24 total return)

They'll host every game through the AFC Championship. They have the easiest path among AFC contenders and will avoid the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs until the AFC Championship at earliest. The Broncos are 14-3 SU and 7-10 ATS this season, winning close games. Sean Payton has playoff pedigree with a Super Bowl XLIV win and 9-8 playoff record.

At near pick'em odds (-105), this bet offers slight value for conservative bettors who believe Denver reaches the Super Bowl but might lose to the NFC champion.

Recommended Bet: 1-unit play at -105 or better

Divisional Round Betting Strategy

Best Case Scenario: Broncos vs. Steelers

Projected Line: Broncos -5.5 to -6

Projected Total: 38.5-40

How to bet it:

Broncos -5.5 (3-unit MAX bet). The Steelers' offense ranked 18th in EPA. Rodgers is 42 years old. Denver's altitude advantage is massive.
Under 40 total. Two conservative offenses with Denver's defense elite at home.
Broncos 1H -3.5. Denver starts fast at home (averaged 14.2 first-half PPG).

Likely Scenario: Broncos vs. Chargers

Projected Line: Broncos -2.5 to -3

Projected Total: 44-45

How to bet it:

Broncos -2.5 (2-unit play). Revenge game for Week 3 loss. Herbert's hand injury lingers.
Under 45 total. Both teams are elite defensively. The Chargers scored only 3 points in Week 18.
Bo Nix Over 209.5 passing yards. The Chargers' defense forces Nix to throw more.

Tough Draw: Broncos vs. Bills

Projected Line: Broncos +0.5 to -1.5

Projected Total: 46-48

How to bet it:

Broncos ML -110 to -120 (1-unit play). The Bills' 0-11 road playoff record creates value.
Over 47 total. Both offenses are elite with shootout potential.
Broncos +3.5 alternate line. Insurance if Allen goes off.

Moderate Draw: Broncos vs. Texans

Projected Line: Broncos -1.5 to -2

Projected Total: 38-40

How to bet it:

Under 40 total (2-unit play). Both defenses are elite in a low-scoring slugfest.
Broncos -1.5 (1-unit play). Home-field advantage. Healthy Stroud is tougher but beatable.
Bo Nix Under 1.5 passing TDs. The Texans' defense is elite. Nix struggles vs. top defenses.

Bo Nix Playoff Outlook

Regular Season Stats

Bo Nix put up 3,931 passing yards (most by a rookie QB this season), 25 passing TDs (29 total TDs including rush/receiving), 11 INTs (66.3% completion rate), 356 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, 83 carries, and a 93.3 passer rating.

Playoff Concerns

Against elite defenses (Top 10): Nix threw 6 TDs and 7 INTs in 7 games vs. top-third defenses. He averaged 5.9 YPA vs. elite defenses (compared to 7.2 vs. weak defenses). He threw 23 TDs and 5 INTs in 10 games vs. bottom-third defenses.

Red zone regression risk: His 32.4% red zone TD rate ranked 4th in NFL and will likely regress. Nix's 6.7 YPA (29th in NFL) suggests a conservative offense. His aDOT of 7.4 yards is second-lowest in the league.

Playoff Readiness

Positives:

78 games of college + NFL experience (most seasoned rookie ever)
61 college starts (NCAA record for QB)
Nix more than doubled Broncos' franchise record for rookie QB wins (10 vs. Elway's 4)
23-9 ATS as home favorite under Sean Payton

Concerns:

Zero playoff experience (first postseason game ever)
Struggled in biggest games (Week 18 vs. Chargers: 141 yards, 0 TDs)
Conservative offense doesn't inspire confidence in shootouts

Nix is good enough to not lose games but unlikely to carry the Broncos alone. Denver's path to the Super Bowl relies on defense + home-field advantage + favorable matchups.