NFL

NFL Wild Card Betting: Chargers vs Patriots Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Player Props

The Patriots are 14-3 and everyone's hyping up Drake Maye's MVP season. Meanwhile, sharp bettors are quietly hammering the Chargers like they know something Vegas doesn't. Justin Herbert's playoff curse vs a defense that feasted on cupcakes all year? This line smells funny, and we're here for it.

January 22, 2026

What You Need to Know

Here's everything that matters before you place your bets:

Best bet: Chargers +3.5 (-110) — Sharp money backing the road dog despite 59% of public on Patriots

Best total play: Under 45.5 — Both teams rank top-8 in total defense, cold weather (26°F, 23 mph gusts) favors defense

Best player prop: Drake Maye Over 238.5 passing yards (-115) — Cleared it in 12 of 17 games (70.6%), OptaAI projects 262.5 yards

Biggest mistake: Overvaluing Patriots' 14-3 record — They faced the easiest schedule in the NFL (.391 opponent win %), only 2-2 vs winning teams

Pro tip: Wild Card road favorites are just 8-13-1 ATS (38.1%) since 2008

Wild Card weekend closes Sunday night with Drake Maye hunting his first playoff win against Justin Herbert, who's 0-2 in the postseason and desperate to shake that narrative. The Patriots look scary at 14-3, but the betting market is telling a different story. Sharp money is all over the Chargers, and the numbers back it up.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

The Matchup

Here's what we're working with Sunday night:

Who's Playing: No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) @ No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3)

When: Sunday, January 11, 2026, 8:00 PM ET

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Watch: NBC/Peacock

Mike Vrabel's first season back in New England produced a 10-game improvement, tied for the biggest single-season turnaround in NFL history. Drake Maye looks like an MVP in year two, leading the league in passer rating (113.5), yards per attempt (8.9), and completion percentage (72%).

Jim Harbaugh brought the Chargers back to relevance despite using 29 different offensive line combinations (most in the league). Justin Herbert took 54 sacks but still threw for 3,727 yards and 26 TDs. He sat Week 18 and says his fractured hand feels "as good as it has since before" the injury.

Where the Lines Are

Here's what the books are offering:

Spread: Patriots -3.5 (-108)

Moneyline: Patriots -192 | Chargers +160

Total: 45.5-46.5 points (varies by book)

The line opened at Patriots -3.5 and hasn't moved, but the money flow tells the real story.

What the Smart Money Is Doing

The line hasn't moved, but the money flow tells the real story. Here's the breakdown:

Spread bets: 59% on Patriots
Money: 57% on Chargers
This is textbook sharp vs public action

The big money is backing LA despite being the underdog. That's your first clue something's up with this Patriots team.

Some trends worth knowing:

Wild Card road favorites: 8-13-1 ATS (38.1%) since 2008
Wild Card underdogs: 19-9-1 ATS (67.9%) in last 29 NFC games
Patriots are 11-6 ATS this season
Chargers are 8-8-1 ATS

Breaking Down Both Teams

New England Patriots

Vrabel's return to New England has been wild. First AFC East title since 2019, first playoff berth since 2021. Drake Maye is the real deal.

What makes them dangerous on offense:

Maye's Total EPA (169.96) is 49 points ahead of second place Jordan Love
Patriots rank 3rd in AFC in rushing yards
TreVeyon Henderson scored 9 of his 10 TDs in the final 8 games, including four multi-TD performances
Full offensive line healthy for first time since Week 12

What makes their defense legit:

4th in scoring defense (18.8 PPG)
8th in total defense (295.2 YPG)
Strong against the run (101.7 rushing YPG allowed)

Here's where it gets spicy. The Patriots faced the easiest schedule in the NFL with a .391 opponent win percentage. They're only 2-2 against teams with winning records and 1-2 vs playoff teams. Their red zone defense ranks 30th, allowing TDs on 67.5% of trips inside the 20.

Translation: They beat up on bad teams. We don't actually know if they're playoff-ready.

Los Angeles Chargers

Harbaugh's first year in LA has been all about surviving chaos. That offensive line used 29 different starting combos, and Herbert still found a way to ball out.

What makes their offense dangerous:

Herbert threw 26 TDs despite taking 54 sacks and playing with a fractured hand
2nd-highest time of possession in the NFL
Herbert and Harbaugh are 5-2-1 ATS as underdogs

What makes their defense elite:

5th in total defense (285.2 YPG)
5th in pass defense (179.9 YPG)
Allowed 2nd-fewest 20+ yard completions (directly counters Maye's deep ball)
19 interceptions (3rd-most in NFL)
5th-best on third down (35.2% allowed)

Herbert's playoff resume is ugly. He's 0-2 with a 52% completion rate, 2 TDs, and 4 INTs in the postseason. Last year's Wild Card loss to Houston saw him throw a career-high 4 picks. The offensive line is still shaky with a 54.4% pass block win rate (32nd in the league).

What the Experts Are Saying

Ten NFL coaches and executives unanimously picked the Patriots to win, making them one of only two unanimous selections. One anonymous head coach said New England is "too good" at the line of scrimmage.

Here's where the media landed:

ESPN experts: Patriots 20-27, Chargers 14-24
CBS Sports: Patriots 28, Chargers 17
Fox Sports: Patriots 28, Chargers 17
FPI: Patriots 53.1% (by 1.4 points on average)

Most projections have the Patriots winning by 3-7 points. Perfect for a Chargers cover.

Our Top Plays

Spread Pick: Chargers +3.5 (-110)

This is the play. Here's why:

Sharp money is hammering the Chargers despite public backing New England. Road favorites struggle in Wild Card games (8-13-1 ATS since 2008). The Chargers' elite secondary is built to neutralize Maye's biggest weapon, the deep ball. They allowed the 2nd-fewest 20+ yard completions all season.

The Patriots' weak schedule creates massive uncertainty against a quality opponent. Herbert is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog with Harbaugh. Even if New England wins, this projects as a close game based on expert predictions.

Multiple sharp sources are leaning Chargers +3.5, including Rotoworld Bet and BetMGM analysts.

Total Pick: Under 45.5-46.5 (-110)

Both defenses rank top-8 in total defense and top-9 in scoring defense. The Chargers allow the 2nd-fewest 20+ yard completions, and the Patriots rely heavily on the deep ball. That's a problem.

Weather is a factor too. It's going to be 26°F with wind chill feeling like 10°F and winds gusting to 23 mph. Potential precipitation and cold affects ball handling, and both teams have fumbled frequently this season (Patriots: 8 lost fumbles, Chargers: 7).

Expert consensus has most projections clustering around Patriots 20-28, Chargers 13-20. That's low 40s at best.

Moneyline Value: Chargers +160 (Small Unit)

If you believe in the upset, +160 offers solid value. Herbert has shown resilience all season, and the Patriots' untested playoff credentials against quality opponents create uncertainty. This is a sprinkle play, not a mortgage bet.

Player Props We Actually Like

Drake Maye Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Maye averaged 258.5 passing yards per game this season and went over this mark in 12 of 17 games (70.6%). OptaAI projects 262.5 passing yards, which is a significant edge over the line.

Despite the strong Chargers secondary, the Patriots will need to pass to move the ball. This line feels low given Maye's consistency and efficiency all season. He's been money.

Odds: -115 (various books)

TreVeyon Henderson Anytime TD (+125 to +130)

Henderson scored in 4 of his last 8 games, all multi-TD performances. He's gotten 13 red zone carries compared to Rhamondre Stevenson's 4 in recent games, including 6 carries inside the 5-yard line.

CBS SportsLine model has him scoring in 48% of simulations. The Patriots will likely lean on the run game against the elite Chargers secondary, and Henderson is the red zone guy now.

Plus-money odds are excellent value given his recent usage.

Odds: +125 to +130

Ladd McConkey Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Patriots' pass defense ranks 25th after opponent adjustments (+16% DVOA). McConkey leads the Chargers in target share and yards vs man coverage, and Marcus Jones (their slot corner) lacks elite limitation abilities.

McConkey cleared this number 8 times in 16 games and hit 41+ yards nine times. He averaged 6.33 targets vs top-10 man coverage defenses. The Patriots' weak schedule inflates their defensive metrics.

Odds: -110 to -115

Quentin Johnston Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Johnston exceeded 35.5 yards in 3 of his last 4 games as an underdog, averaging 59.8 yards. He's recorded 48+ rushing/receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 Sunday road games.

He's coming off back-to-back 98-yard and 104-yard performances. The Patriots' secondary is vulnerable to big plays, and Johnston is hot right now.

Odds: -112 to -115

Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Interceptions (-125)

This one hurts to bet if you're a Herbert fan, but the numbers don't lie. He threw 4 INTs in last year's Wild Card game (more than his entire regular season). The Patriots will apply consistent pressure given the Chargers' offensive line issues.

Vrabel's scheme is designed to create turnovers, and Herbert's 13 regular season INTs suggest he's turnover-prone in pressure situations. Playoff Herbert has been bad.

Odds: -125

Other Props Worth Considering

Omarion Hampton Anytime TD (+160): Hampton leads the Chargers with 4 rushing TDs despite only playing 9 games. He's planning to play after sitting Week 18 and got limited practice Friday. Models give him a 43.8% TD probability. If active, he should handle goal-line work. Risk: ankle injury, so monitor pregame status.

Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+175): Seven TDs this season, consistent red zone target. He's Maye's security blanket in tight windows with a 32.6% TD probability (3rd-highest on Patriots). Plus-money odds offer value.

Stefon Diggs Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 1,013 yards this season (first Patriots WR over 1,000 since Edelman in 2019). He averaged 59.6 YPG with an elite 83.3% catch rate and five 100+ yard games. The Chargers allowed 12/221/2 to WRs vs Houston and 17/213/2 vs Dallas recently.

Rhamondre Stevenson Under 38.5 Rushing Yards (-110): Henderson has taken over the primary rushing role. Simulation models project this hits 58.9% of the time (2.7% edge). Stevenson is more valuable in pass protection and the receiving game now.

How the Weather Plays In

Here's what we're dealing with Sunday night:

Temperature: 26°F (feels like 10°F with wind chill)
Wind: 13-27 mph with gusts up to 23 mph
Precipitation: 20-49% chance of rain/snow mix, minimal accumulation expected

The cold and wind shouldn't drastically alter the game, but ball security becomes huge. Both teams have fumbled frequently this season. The Patriots have played well in cold weather (4-1 in last 5 games under 40°F), while the Chargers only played one game below 40°F this season.

What Each Team Needs to Do

Here's what the Patriots need to focus on:

Pressure Herbert relentlessly and exploit the decimated Chargers offensive line that allowed 54 sacks
Establish the run game early with Henderson and Stevenson against the vulnerable Chargers run defense
Protect Maye with the full offensive line healthy for the first time since Week 12
Win red zone battles (their 30th-ranked red zone defense is a major liability)

Here's what the Chargers need to focus on:

Herbert must avoid turnovers and cannot repeat the 4-INT disaster from last year's playoff loss
Control the clock with the run game (Hampton if healthy, plus Vidal) to keep the Patriots offense off the field
Generate pressure with a 4-man rush and avoid exposing the secondary in blitz packages
Force Maye into mistakes since the elite secondary must capitalize on his first playoff game

Our Final Call

Here's how we see it playing out:

Score: Patriots 24, Chargers 20

ATS Winner: Chargers +3.5 ✓

Total: Under 45.5 ✓

The Patriots should win at home with superior coaching and an MVP-caliber QB, but the Chargers' defensive strength and Herbert's resilience keep this within a field goal. New England's questionable schedule and struggles against quality opponents create uncertainty.

The Chargers have the defensive blueprint to neutralize Maye's deep ball. If Herbert protects the football, LA covers the number even in a loss.

Here's where we're putting our confidence:

Chargers +3.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High confidence)
Under 45.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High confidence)
Chargers ML +160: ⭐⭐ (Value play, moderate confidence)

If you're bullish on the Chargers, consider a two-unit play on +3.5 and a half-unit sprinkle on the +160 moneyline. The sharp money backing LA suggests professional bettors see value in the road underdog position.