NFL Wild Card Betting: Packers vs Bears Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Spread Breakdown

What You Need to Know

Here's everything that matters before you place your bets:

Best bet: Bears +1.5 (-106). Chicago is 10-7 ATS vs. Packers' 5-10-1 ATS. Home underdogs went 10-7 ATS this season.

Best total play: Over 44.5 (-110). Both meetings hit 44+ points (49 in Week 14, 38 in Week 16 OT).

Best player prop: D'Andre Swift Anytime TD (+140). Led Bears with 9 rush TDs, gets 71% of red zone touches. Packers allow 0.7 rush TDs per game.

Biggest mistake: Betting Packers as favorites. Green Bay is 5-9 ATS when favored this season, 5-10-1 overall ATS.

Pro tip: Teams on 4-game playoff skids are 1-2 in Wild Card games (0-2 when trailing big at half). Packers join the 1999 Lions and 2024 Steelers.

This is the NFL's oldest and most-played rivalry (215 meetings), and it's only reached the playoffs three times ever. The NFC North champion Bears host their first playoff game at Soldier Field in seven years. The Packers are trying to become the first team ever to win a playoff game after entering on a four-game losing streak. This is a rematch of two instant classics from the regular season, including a Week 16 overtime thriller won by Chicago 22-16.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

The Matchup

Here's what you're working with Saturday night:

Who's Playing: No. 7 Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) @ No. 2 Chicago Bears (11-6)

When: Saturday, January 10, 2026, 8:00 PM ET

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

Watch: Amazon Prime Video (Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit, Kaylee Hartung)

Where the Lines Are

Here's what the books are offering:

Spread: Packers -1.5 (-108) | Bears +1.5 (-106)

Moneyline: Packers -124 | Bears +106

Total: 44.5 (Over -112 / Under -108)

The line opened with the Bears as 1-point favorites but flipped to Packers -1 at most books, with some showing pick'em. The total dropped from 46.5 to 44.5 as sharp money anticipated a defensive struggle.

What the Smart Money Is Doing

The betting market is showing some interesting movement. Here's what's happening:

The spread has been all over the place. Bears opened as 1.5-point favorites, then the line moved to Packers -1 or -1.5 as sharps backed Green Bay. Now it's settled near pick'em with balanced action and a slight lean to Bears +1.5.

The total opened at 46.5 and dropped to 44.5 on two-way action, suggesting both sides expect points but sharps are leaning defensive.

Some trends you need to know: Bears are 10-7 ATS this season (58.8%), Packers are 6-10-1 ATS (37.5%). The Packers are 5-9 ATS when favored this season. Teams entering playoffs on 4-game skids are 1-2 all-time (only the 1986 Jets won). Bears are 12-10 all-time in home playoff games. The Packers are 30-7 vs. Bears since 2008 in regular season, but only 1-1 in playoffs all-time. Both regular season meetings hit over 44 total points (49 total in Week 14, 38 in Week 16 OT).

Breaking Down Both Teams

Chicago Bears

Ben Johnson's first season as Bears head coach has exceeded all expectations. He delivered Chicago's first division title since 2018 and first playoff berth since 2020. The Bears won the NFC North despite being underdogs multiple times, going 10-7 ATS in the process.

What makes their offense click: Caleb Williams threw for 3,942 yards (franchise record), 27 TDs, and only 7 INTs with a 58.1% completion rate. He threw 2 TD passes in each of his last 5 games. The Bears have an elite rushing attack and are the only team with two 750+ yard rushers (Swift with 1,087 yards, Monangai with 783). D'Andre Swift rushed for 1,087 yards on 4.9 YPC and 9 rush TDs (led team with 10 total TDs). Kyle Monangai put up 783 yards as a rookie sensation who complements Swift. Colston Loveland has 90+ yards in his last 2 games with 23 targets combined.

What makes their defense dangerous: They're #1 in takeaways (33) and interceptions (23) in the NFL with a +22 turnover differential (best in league). They committed only 11 turnovers all season. Kevin Byard led the NFL with 7 INTs (2nd time in 10 seasons leading league). The Bears won 6 games after trailing in the final 2 minutes of the 4th quarter.

The concerns with Chicago: They allow 134.5 rush YPG (27th) and 24.4 PPG (23rd). C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Amen Ogbongbemiga, and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka are OUT with concussions. Kyler Gordon (groin) is questionable, so CB depth is severely compromised. They lost their last 2 regular season games (OT vs. Packers, 19-16 vs. Lions).

Green Bay Packers

Matt LaFleur's Packers limp into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. They're only the fourth team in the Super Bowl era to enter playoffs losing four straight. But Jordan Love is back from his concussion, and Josh Jacobs got some rest, so there's a sliver of hope.

What makes their offense work: Jordan Love threw for 3,381 yards, 23 TDs, and 6 INTs with a 66.3% completion rate in arguably his best season. He cleared protocol and practiced fully, saying there are "no concerns about rust." Josh Jacobs rushed for 1,653 yards (likely league leader) and 13 rush TDs despite late-season knee issues. Jacobs says his body feels the "best in 6 weeks" after resting Week 18. The Packers rank 15th in total offense and 16th in scoring (25.9 PPG).

The offensive concerns are real: Dontayvion Wicks is OUT with a concussion (key WR3 unavailable). Malik Willis, Javon Bullard, Warren Brinson, Nick Niemann, and Zach Tom are QUESTIONABLE. Jacobs rushed for only 36 yards on 12 carries vs. Bears in Week 16 OT loss (and fumbled). He had just 3 yards on 4 carries vs. Ravens in Week 17 blowout. They're 6-10-1 ATS this season, worst among playoff teams.

The defensive woes are brutal: They lost Micah Parsons (knee, season-ending) in Week 15, and the defense collapsed afterward. They allowed 150 rush yards to the Bears in Week 16 and 216 yards to Derrick Henry in Week 17. They allow 134.5 rush YPG (18th) and are vulnerable to the Bears' dual-RB attack. They're 18th in rush defense and 11th in pass defense, but trending down. They gave up a 10-point lead in the final 2 minutes to lose in OT to the Bears in Week 16.

What the Experts Are Saying

Unlike other Wild Card games with clear favorites, this matchup draws a sharp divide among experts. Here's where the media landed:

ESPN Maldonado says Bears 25, Packers 22 because "Chicago controls pace with run game, forces turnovers." Fox Sports has Bears 25, Packers 22. Covers likes Bears +2.5 and Over 44.5. CBS SportsLine Model leans Bears +1.5. FPI gives the Packers a 56.5% implied win probability.

Most sharp bettors and contrarian models favor Bears +1.5, while the public leans Packers based on historical dominance. But history doesn't cover spreads.

Our Top Plays

Spread Pick: Bears +1.5 (-106) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is your max-bet play of the weekend. The Bears are 10-7 ATS (58.8%) while the Packers are 6-10-1 ATS (37.5%) this season. When Green Bay has been favored, they're 5-9 ATS. The market consistently overvalues them.

Teams on 4-game losing streaks are 1-2 in Wild Card playoffs (only the 1986 Jets won). The Bears won the last meeting 22-16 in OT at Soldier Field just two weeks ago. The Packers lost Micah Parsons (their best defensive player) and Dontayvion Wicks.

The Bears' +22 turnover differential is the best in the NFL and creates short fields all game. Chicago is 12-10 all-time in home playoff games. They're hosting their first home playoff game in 7 years, so the atmosphere will be electric.

You're getting a home underdog with points, a superior ATS record, and a massive turnover edge. The Packers' four-game losing streak isn't just bad luck. It's a systemic collapse. Since losing Micah Parsons in Week 15, Green Bay's defense has allowed 441 yards to Denver, 366 yards to Chicago (including giving up a 10-point lead in the final 2 minutes), 465 yards to Baltimore (41-24 blowout), and struggled vs. Minnesota backups.

When Green Bay is favored, they don't cover. When Chicago is an underdog, they do. It's that simple.

Total Pick: Over 44.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Both regular season meetings cleared 44 points. They combined for 49 total in Week 14 and 38 in Week 16 OT. The Packers rank 15th in rush defense (134.5 YPG), so the Bears will gash them with Swift and Monangai. The Bears rank 27th in rush defense (134.5 YPG), so Jacobs can run effectively if he's healthy.

Neither defense is elite. The Bears are 23rd in scoring defense, Packers are 11th. Jordan Love averaged 225.4 pass YPG, Caleb Williams averaged 231.9 pass YPG. The playoff atmosphere at Soldier Field means offenses thrive in playoff intensity. Williams threw 2+ TDs in each of his last 5 games.

The line dropped from 46.5 to 44.5, creating value on the over. Covers projects over 44.5, and both offenses have shown big-play capability all season. Don't overthink this. Rivalry games in the playoffs get chippy, emotional, and high-scoring.

Moneyline Value: Bears ML +106 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

At +106, the Bears offer excellent value as essentially a pick'em at home with a superior ATS record and turnover margin. If you believe Chicago wins outright (and we do), +106 is free money compared to laying 1.5 points. This is a 1-unit play with massive upside.

Player Props We Actually Like

D'Andre Swift Anytime TD (+140) ⭐⭐⭐

Swift led the Bears with 10 total touchdowns (9 rush, 1 receiving). He gets 71% of the Bears' red zone touches (48 of 67 total). He scored 4 TDs in the final month of the regular season. The Packers allow 0.7 rushing TDs per game (30th in NFL).

Swift averaged 67.9 rush YPG on 4.9 YPC. The Packers allowed 150 total rush yards to Bears RBs in Week 16. Bet365 is offering +140 odds, which is excellent value for a 38% anytime TD probability.

Odds: +140 to +156

Josh Jacobs Over 62.5-64.5 Rushing Yards (-110) ⭐⭐

Jacobs averaged 97.2 rush YPG this season before late-season injuries. He says his body feels the "best in 6 weeks" after resting Week 18. The Bears allow 134.5 rush YPG (27th in NFL). He cleared 64.5 yards in 12 of 17 games this season (70.6%).

Week 16 vs. Bears was an outlier (36 yards) due to knee injury and bad game script. The Bears' run defense is vulnerable. Derrick Henry ran for 216 yards the previous week. Jacobs rushed for 86 yards and a TD vs. Bears in Week 14 when healthy.

Odds: -110 to -115

Caleb Williams Over 202.5-203.5 Passing Yards (-110) ⭐⭐

Williams averaged 231.9 pass YPG this season. He exceeded his passing yards prop in 4 straight games, averaging 258.5 YPG. He threw for 212 yards vs. Packers in Week 16 despite a slow start. The Packers allow 227.2 pass YPG (22nd in NFL).

Williams threw 2 TD passes in each of his last 5 games. The line is set 29 yards below his season average, which is a value play. He cleared 202.5 in 12 of 17 games (70.6%).

Odds: -110 to -114

Colston Loveland Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (+100) ⭐⭐

Loveland recorded 90+ receiving yards in his last 2 games (91 vs. Lions, 93 projected vs. Packers). He got 23 targets combined in his last 2 games, playing a true WR1 role. The Packers allow 44.6 YPG to opposing TEs (25th in NFL).

This rookie first-round pick is emerging as Williams' security blanket. He cleared 41.5 in 8 of 17 games, but he's surging late in the season. Plus-money odds at +100 are excellent value.

Odds: +100 to +110

Other Props Worth Considering

Caleb Williams Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-148): Williams averaged 1.6 passing TDs per game this season. He had exactly 2 TDs in each of his last 5 games, so regression is likely. The Bears lean on Swift and Monangai in the red zone (10 rush TDs combined). Ben Johnson's offense uses RBs heavily near the goal line. Williams cleared 1.5 TDs in only 9 of 17 games (52.9%). Playoff games tend to be lower-scoring.

Christian Watson Over 3.5 Receptions (-102): Watson averaged 5.5 targets per game this season with 6 targets in each of his last 2 games. He cleared 3.5 receptions in 5 of his last 7 games. He's Jordan Love's top deep threat and will need to air it out if they fall behind. The Bears' CB depth is depleted with 3 DBs out (Gardner-Johnson, Gordon questionable). Volume should be there in a playoff game.

Kyle Monangai Under 10.5 Rushing Attempts (-116): Monangai went under 10.5 attempts in 3 straight games. D'Andre Swift dominates touches (71% of red zone work). The Bears are moving toward a pass-heavy attack with Williams. Monangai is the 1B back in a committee, averaging 7-10 carries. He cleared 10.5 attempts in only 6 of 17 games (35.3%).

Jordan Love Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-110): Love averaged 225.4 pass YPG this season. The Bears allow 227.2 pass YPG (22nd in NFL). If the Packers fall behind, Love will throw 35+ times. He cleared 225.5 in 8 of 15 games (53.3%). The rust concern is overblown since he practiced fully with no limitations.

Why Bears +1.5 is the Play

Let me break down why this is the strongest bet of Wild Card weekend.

The Packers' four-game losing streak isn't just bad vibes. It's a collapse. Since losing Micah Parsons in Week 15, Green Bay's defense has been shredded. They allowed 441 yards to Denver, 366 yards to Chicago (and blew a 10-point lead in the final 2 minutes), 465 yards to Baltimore in a 41-24 blowout, and struggled against Minnesota's backups.

Teams entering playoffs on 4-game skids are 1-2 all-time. Both losses came by double digits with first-half deficits of 21+ points. The only team that won (1986 Jets) had a completely different profile.

The Bears are 10-7 ATS (58.8%) this season. The Packers are 6-10-1 ATS (37.5%). When Green Bay has been favored, they're 5-9 ATS. The market consistently overvalues them. Chicago has covered spreads all year by winning close games with their +22 turnover differential and 6 wins when trailing in the final 2 minutes.

Soldier Field is hosting its first playoff game in 7 years with nearly 61,000 fans expected. The Bears are 12-10 all-time in home playoff games. Their defense thrives on creating turnovers (23 INTs, 33 total takeaways). The crowd noise will disrupt Jordan Love's protection calls, and Kevin Byard's ball-hawking secondary will feast on a rusty QB.

Chicago's +22 turnover differential is the best in the NFL, while Green Bay is +1. In a pick'em game, the team that protects the ball and creates short fields wins. The Bears committed only 11 turnovers all season (fewest in league).

The Packers lost Micah Parsons (season-ending knee) and Dontayvion Wicks (concussion OUT), while 5 key players are questionable. The Bears have 3 defensive backs out, but their depth at DB is stronger than Green Bay's depleted D-line.

The Bears won the last meeting 22-16 in OT at Soldier Field just two weeks ago, rallying from 10 down in the final 2 minutes. Williams threw a 46-yard TD to DJ Moore in overtime to win. Green Bay's psyche is fragile after four straight losses.

Ben Johnson is a first-year coach who exceeded expectations. Matt LaFleur is coaching his worst stretch in Green Bay. Johnson's offense ranked 6th overall and 3rd in rushing despite Williams' accuracy issues. LaFleur's offense ranked 15th overall and struggled in December.

You're getting a home underdog with points, a superior ATS record, a massive turnover edge, and a Packers team that can't cover when favored. This is a max-bet spot.

Our Final Call

Here's how we see it playing out:

Score: Bears 27, Packers 24

ATS Winner: Bears +1.5 ✓

Total: Over 44.5 ✓

The Bears' superior ATS record, home-field advantage, and elite turnover margin prove too much for a Packers team that's lost four straight and is missing key pieces. Caleb Williams throws for 250+ yards and 2 TDs. D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai combine for 150+ rushing yards. Kevin Byard records an interception to seal the victory.

Josh Jacobs rushes for 70+ yards and a TD, but Jordan Love's rust shows early with a pick-six. The Bears win outright in a closely contested rivalry game that clears the over.

Here's where we're putting our confidence:

• Bears +1.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
• Over 44.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High confidence)
• Bears ML +106: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High confidence, value play)

This is a max-bet spot on Bears +1.5. Chicago's 10-7 ATS record versus Green Bay's 6-10-1 ATS mark (5-9 when favored) creates one of the strongest home underdog cases of Wild Card weekend. Load up on the Bears spread, hammer over 44.5, and sprinkle Bears ML at +106 for near-even-money value. Hammer D'Andre Swift anytime TD at +140 as your best player prop play.

Where to Go From Here

If you're betting spreads: Master home underdog betting systems in NFL playoffs to identify teams with superior ATS records and situational edges like Chicago.

If you're betting totals: Learn how divisional rivalry history impacts playoff scoring in Wild Card games where teams know each other intimately.

Want a deeper edge? Use ATS trend analysis tools to find teams like the Bears (10-7 ATS) that consistently beat their lines versus overvalued teams like the Packers (6-10-1 ATS).

‍