NFL

NFL Wild Card Betting: Rams vs Panthers Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Moneyline Upset Watch

The Panthers shocked everyone by beating the Rams 31-28 in Week 13, but here's the dirty secret: they should've lost by 12. The Rams dominated the success rate by 18% and only lost because Stafford threw two picks (including a pick-six) and got strip-sacked. Now LA is coming back as 10.5-point road favorites (the largest road favorite in a playoff game since 1970), and Stafford is the MVP favorite who wants blood. This isn't happening twice.

January 22, 2026

Quick Answer

Best bet: Rams -10.5 (-110). L.A. is 12-5 ATS (best in NFL). Panthers lost Week 13 rematch by Expected Score 31.3-19.7 despite winning.

Best total play: Over 46.5 (-110). Week 13 meeting had 59 points and 737 yards. Rams defense is 23rd in EPA since Week 13.

Best player prop: Puka Nacua Over 7.5 receptions (+110). Rain favors short passing. Nacua averages 8.2 catches over the last 6 weeks.

Biggest mistake: Overvaluing Panthers' Week 13 upset. Rams dominated success rate by 18% and lost only due to 3 Stafford turnovers.

Pro tip: Rams are the largest road playoff favorite (-10.5) since 1970. Panthers are 2-6 all-time as playoff teams with losing records.

Wild Card Weekend opens with a rematch of one of the season's most shocking upsets. The Panthers stunned the Rams 31-28 in Week 13 despite losing by Expected Score 31.3-19.7, as Matthew Stafford committed three turnovers (2 INTs including pick-six, 1 strip-sack fumble). Now, six weeks later, the MVP favorite Stafford and the NFC's highest-scoring offense seek revenge against an 8-9 division champion that backed into the playoffs after losing to Tampa Bay in Week 18.

The Rams are 10.5-point road favorites, the largest road favorite in a playoff game since 1970. Can Bryce Young and the Panthers pull off another miracle, or will Stafford's elite offense overwhelm Carolina's 27th-ranked defense?

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

The Matchup

Who's Playing: No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (12-5) @ No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-9)

When: Saturday, January 10, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Watch: FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews)

The Lines

Spread: Panthers +10.5 (-110) | Rams -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Panthers +440 to +450 | Rams -600 to -667

Total: 46.0-46.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)

The line opened at Rams -9.5, quickly moved to -10, then settled at -10.5 across most books. The total opened at 46.5 and has remained relatively stable.

Market Movement

The betting market moved fast on this one. Sharp money hammered the Rams after the opening line at -9.5, pushing it to -10.5. There's a slight lean to the over at 46.5 based on the Week 13 shootout (59 points). The Rams moneyline at -600 represents an 85.7% implied win probability.

Key trends:

Rams are 12-5 ATS this season (70.6%), best in NFL among playoff teams
Rams are 12-3 as moneyline favorites (80%), covered 2 of 2 as 10.5+ favorites
Teams with losing records are 2-6 all-time in playoffs
Road favorites of 10+ points are 14-6 ATS (70%) since 1990
Panthers are 10-7 ATS this season (58.8%), including 1-0 as 10.5+ underdog
Rams are 3-3 straight up in last 6 games, including Week 13 loss to Panthers
10 of 17 Rams games hit over this season (58.8%)

Breaking Down Both Teams

Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay's Rams enter as the NFL's #1 offense (30.5 PPG, 418.7 YPG, 6.7 yards per play) led by MVP favorite Matthew Stafford, who's having a career renaissance at age 37.

Matthew Stafford threw for 4,707 yards (NFL-best), 46 TDs (franchise record), and only 8 INTs. He's the 2nd-oldest QB ever with 45+ TDs. Stafford is the -165 MVP favorite (62% implied probability) after Week 18's 4-TD performance. He's only the 3rd QB in NFL history with 45+ TDs and fewer than 10 INTs in a single season. Puka Nacua put up 1,304 yards, 101 catches, and 9 TDs as an elite slot weapon. Cooper Kupp added 879 yards and 6 TDs as a reliable veteran target.

Tetairoa McMillan is a rookie sensation who scored the game-winning TD vs. Panthers in Week 13. Kyren Williams rushed for 823 yards on 5.2 YPC with 12 TDs as a versatile 3-down back. Blake Corum added 558 yards on 5.1 YPC and averaged 64.8 rush YPG over the last 5 games.

The offensive concerns: Puka Nacua (foot) is QUESTIONABLE but expected to play. Joe Dotson (foot) is OUT, and the Rams' success rate dropped from 54.3% to 48.6% without him. The Rams lost 3 of their last 6 games, including blowout losses to the Seahawks and a slide after the Panthers upset. Stafford committed 3 turnovers vs. Panthers in Week 13 (2 INTs, 1 strip-sack).

The defensive weaknesses are real: The Rams defense allowed 6.4 yards per snap over the last 3 games (4th-worst in NFL). They're 23rd in opponent EPA per play since Week 13 and allow 143.2 rush YPG (20th in NFL). They gave up 31 points to the 8-9 Panthers six weeks ago.

Carolina Panthers

Dave Canales' Panthers clinched the NFC South title at 8-9 after the Falcons beat the Saints, earning their first playoff berth since 2017 and first division title since 2015.

Bryce Young threw for 2,109 yards, 17 TDs, and 8 INTs with a 60.5% completion rate. He's transformed from "bust" to franchise QB. Young has 12 career game-winning drives before age 25 (2nd-most behind Justin Herbert). He delivered 6 game-winning drives this season (tied for 2nd-most in NFL). He posted a 147.1 passer rating vs. the Rams in Week 13 (2nd-highest in Panthers history). Y

oung threw 10 TDs and 0 INTs in the final 3 weeks of the regular season (4th-best EPA in NFL). Tetairoa McMillan had the game-winning TD vs. Rams in Week 13 (43-yard TD). Jalen Coker put up 628 yards and exceeded 45 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games. Rico Dowdle rushed for 651 yards on 4.1 YPC as the lead back in a committee.

The offensive concerns: They scored just 14 points vs. Tampa Bay in Week 18, a loss that cost them the top seed. They averaged only 18.3 PPG this season (27th in NFL). Young threw for only 54 yards vs. Seattle in Week 17 in a blowout loss (27-10). Their passing offense averages 145.5 YPG (dead last in NFL).

The defensive catastrophe: The Panthers allow 342.2 total YPG (27th in NFL) and 24.4 PPG (23rd). They allow 199.0 pass YPG (20th) and 143.2 rush YPG (20th). They lost 3 defensive starters in Week 13 vs. the Rams, but all are available for the rematch. Their defense forced 3 turnovers vs. the Rams in Week 13 (2 INTs including pick-six, 1 strip-sack). They must generate turnovers to have any chance because they cannot win straight-up.

What the Experts Are Saying

This matchup draws near-unanimous consensus toward the Rams covering the massive spread. CBS SportsLine Model says the Rams cover -10.5 in "well over 50%" of 10,000 simulations. Fox Sports AI has Rams 30, Panthers 15 with the Rams covering -10.5. Action Network likes 1st Half Under 23.5 as the best bet. SI Betting likes Over 46.5 and Panthers +10.5. Covers likes Rams -10.5 and Kyren Williams Over 65.5 rushing yards.

Most experts favor Rams -10.5, though some contrarians like SI advocate for Panthers +10.5 based on the Week 13 result.

Our Top Plays

Spread Pick: Rams -10.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is your max-bet play of the weekend. The Rams are 12-5 ATS (70.6%), the best ATS record among playoff teams. The Panthers' Week 13 upset was "one of the luckiest wins" in recent memory. They lost by Expected Score 31.3-19.7.

The Rams dominated the all-play success rate by 18% vs. the Panthers in Week 13. Stafford's 3 turnovers were an anomaly. He hadn't thrown an INT in his previous 28 straight TDs before that game. The Rams have the #1 offense in the NFL (30.5 PPG, 418.7 YPG) going against the Panthers' 27th-ranked defense (24.4 PPG allowed).

Road favorites of 10+ points are 14-6 ATS (70%) since 1990. Teams with losing records are 2-6 all-time in playoffs. The Panthers scored only 14 points in Week 18 with playoff seeding on the line. Stafford wants revenge after that embarrassing 3-turnover performance. The Rams covered 2 of 2 games as 10.5+ favorites this season. The Panthers lost starting CBs Jaycee Horn and Dane Jackson in recent weeks.

Multiple expert sources favor Rams -10.5, including CBS SportsLine (50%+ simulations), Fox Sports, and Covers. Look, the Panthers got lucky once. It's not happening again. Stafford is pissed, and the Rams are going to roll.

Total Pick: Over 46.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Week 13 meeting had 59 combined points and 737 total yards. The Rams offense is #1 in the NFL (30.5 PPG, 418.7 YPG). The Rams defense is 23rd in opponent EPA since Week 13 and allowed 6.4 yards per snap over the last 3 games.

The Panthers allow 24.4 PPG (23rd in NFL) and are vulnerable to elite offenses. 10 of 17 Rams games hit the over (58.8%). The Panthers scored 5 of their 6 highest point totals at home, so their offense thrives at Bank of America Stadium. Stafford averaged 276.9 pass YPG and 2.7 pass TDs per game.

CBS SportsLine model projects 48 combined points (over 46.5). The Panthers must score 24+ to have an upset chance, which forces a shootout. Rain forecast favors short passing (Nacua, Kupp) but won't stop scoring. SI Betting, CBS SportsLine, and contrarian models all favor over 46.5.

Both teams can score. The Rams are going to put up 30+, and the Panthers will keep it respectable at home. Cash the over.

Moneyline Upset Watch: Panthers ML +440 (0.25-Unit Lottery Ticket) ⭐⭐

At +440 odds (18.5% implied probability), there's marginal value for a tiny sprinkle on the Panthers moneyline. But let me be clear: this is a lottery ticket only.

Why the upset is possible: The Panthers already upset the Rams 31-28 as 10.5+ underdogs in Week 13. Bryce Young posted a 147.1 passer rating vs. the Rams (2nd-highest in Panthers history). Young has 12 game-winning drives before age 25 (2nd in NFL history). The Panthers are 10-7 ATS this season, including 1-0 as 10.5+ underdog. The Panthers defense forced 3 turnovers from Stafford in Week 13 (2 INTs, strip-sack). Derrick Brown (DL) strip-sacked Stafford with 3 minutes left to seal the Week 13 win. The Panthers have one extra day of rest (played last Saturday). Young threw 10 TDs and 0 INTs in the final 3 weeks. The Panthers are 5-3 at home vs. Rams 4-3 on the road this season. Home field advantage in playoffs means the crowd will be electric.

Why the upset is unlikely: The Panthers' Week 13 win was a statistical fluke. They lost Expected Score 31.3-19.7. The Rams dominated success rate by 18% despite 3 turnovers. The Panthers scored only 14 points in Week 18 with everything on the line. Their passing offense is dead last in the NFL (145.5 YPG). Stafford is the -165 MVP favorite and won't commit 3 turnovers again. The Rams are -600 favorites (85.7% implied win probability).

This is a 0.25-unit lottery ticket only. The Panthers have upset potential given the Week 13 result and Young's clutch gene, but the Rams' statistical dominance makes this a longshot. Don't bet the mortgage on this.

Player Props We Actually Like

Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Nacua averaged 8.2 receptions over the last 6 weeks. Rain forecast in Charlotte favors the short passing game. Nacua is a "target magnet at all areas of the field" per Sportsbook Review. The Rams as 10.5-point favorites will lean on a possession game.

Plus-money odds at +110 offer excellent value. He cleared 7.5 in 12 of 17 games this season (70.6%). Joe Dotson is OUT, which increases Nacua's target share. This is your best bet of the slate.

Odds: +110

Blake Corum Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Corum averaged 64.8 rushing yards over the last 5 games. Rain forecast and blowout game script favor a heavy run game. The Panthers allow 143.2 rush YPG (20th in NFL). Corum gets double-digit carries 6 times in the back half of the season. He averages 5.1 yards per carry with excellent efficiency. He cleared 42.5 in 8 of his last 10 games. ESPN has him as a DFS Captain pick and expects a big game.

Odds: -114

Kyren Williams Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Williams rushed for 70+ yards in 5 of his last 6 games. He gets the majority of touches in big games as the veteran 3-down back. The Rams will lean on the run game to control the clock in a blowout. The Panthers allow 143.2 rush YPG (20th in NFL). He averaged 68.6 rush YPG this season. He's a more well-rounded player than Corum and gets the goal-line work.

Odds: -114

Matthew Stafford Under 264.5 Passing Yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Game script favors a run-heavy approach as a 10.5-point favorite. Rain forecast and wet weather reduce passing volume. The Rams will control the clock with Williams and Corum to protect the lead. Stafford averaged 276.9 pass YPG, but the line is set 12 yards below that.

In Week 13 vs. the Panthers, Stafford threw for 243 yards (under 264.5). The Rams had a 68% success rate on designed runs vs. the Panthers in Week 13. ESPN projects the Rams will run the ball plenty to avoid turnover variance.

Odds: -114

Rico Dowdle Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game script heavily favors the Rams, so the Panthers will be throwing. As 10.5-point underdogs, the Panthers must air the ball out to catch up. Dowdle averaged only 38.3 rush YPG this season. Rain conditions won't help because the Panthers are forced to pass.

He cleared 46.5 in only 6 of 17 games (35.3%). The Panthers will likely abandon the run by halftime if they're down big.

Odds: -114

Other Props Worth Considering

Jalen Coker Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114): Coker exceeded 45 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games. He had 6 catches for 47 yards in Week 18 and 74 yards vs. the Rams in Week 13. He's Young's most reliable pass-catcher down the stretch. The Panthers will need to throw 35+ times to stay competitive. The line is set below recent performance averages, so there's value.

Bryce Young Over 192.5 Passing Yards (-114): The Panthers must throw to keep up, so 35+ pass attempts are likely. Young averaged 126.5 pass YPG but threw 206 yards vs. the Rams in Week 13. The Rams defense is 23rd in EPA since Week 13 and vulnerable. The line is set 66 yards above season average, which reflects game script. If the Panthers stay competitive, Young clears easily. If it's a blowout, the Panthers throw in garbage time.

Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-144): Williams scored 12 TDs this season (leads Rams). He has a 59% anytime TD probability per prediction markets. He's the primary goal-line back for the NFL's #1 scoring offense. The Rams project to score 30+ points with multiple TD opportunities.

Tetairoa McMillan Over 4.5 Receptions (+106): McMillan scored the game-winning TD vs. the Panthers in Week 13 (43-yard TD). Plus-money odds at +106 offer value. He's Young's go-to target on big plays. The Panthers will throw 35+ times, so volume exists.

Can the Panthers Shock the World Again?

Let me break down the upset potential because the Panthers did pull it off once. Six weeks ago, the Panthers were massive 10.5-point underdogs and upset the Rams 31-28, snapping L.A.'s six-game win streak. Bryce Young threw 3 TDs with a 147.1 passer rating (2nd-highest in Panthers history), while the defense forced 3 turnovers from Stafford (2 INTs including pick-six, 1 strip-sack).

Young has 12 career game-winning drives before age 25, second-most in NFL history behind Justin Herbert. He's delivered 6 game-winning drives this season (tied for 2nd in NFL). In one-score games, Young posted a 101.2 passer rating (3rd in NFL). The playoff stage won't be too big for him.

Young threw 10 TDs with 0 INTs in the final 3 weeks of the regular season (4th-best EPA in NFL). He's transformed from "historic bust" to franchise QB in just 14 games. The Panthers are 5-3 at home this season with 5 of 6 highest point totals at home. The Rams are 4-3 on the road and lost 3 of their last 4 road games. The Panthers played last Saturday, giving them one extra day of rest vs. the Rams.

But here's the reality: The Week 13 upset was "one of the luckiest wins" in recent memory. The Panthers lost by Expected Score 31.3-19.7. The Rams dominated the all-play success rate by 18% despite losing. They had a 68% success rate on designed runs (best all season).

Stafford's 3 turnovers snapped his NFL-record 28 straight TD passes without an INT. The MVP favorite (-165 odds) won't commit 3 turnovers again. Regression heavily favors the Rams. The Panthers scored only 14 points in Week 18 with playoff seeding on the line. They average 18.3 PPG (27th in NFL) and have the worst passing offense in the NFL (145.5 YPG). Against elite defenses, Young threw for only 54 yards vs. the Seahawks.

The Rams have the #1 offense in the NFL (30.5 PPG, 418.7 YPG) led by MVP favorite Stafford (46 TDs, 8 INTs). The Panthers have the 27th-ranked defense (24.4 PPG allowed). The talent gap is massive. Teams with losing records are 2-6 all-time in playoffs. The Rams are the largest road playoff favorite (-10.5) since 1970.

The Panthers have a 15-20% true upset probability (slightly better than the market's 18.5% implied odds at +440). At +440 odds, there's marginal value for a 0.25-unit lottery ticket, but this is not a recommended play for most bettors.

For the upset to happen, the Panthers defense must force 2+ turnovers from Stafford. Young must post a 110+ passer rating like Week 13. The Panthers must win time of possession (40+ minutes). The Rams must commit 5+ penalties to hurt themselves. All of that has to go right. It's not happening.

Our Final Call

Here's how we see it playing out:

Score: Rams 31, Panthers 20

ATS Winner: Rams -10.5 ✓

Total: Over 46.5 ✓

Matthew Stafford exorcises his Week 13 demons with a flawless performance, throwing for 280 yards and 3 TDs while avoiding turnovers. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combine for 160 rushing yards and 2 TDs as the Rams dominate time of possession. Bryce Young plays admirably, throwing for 210 yards and 2 TDs, but the Panthers' defense can't generate turnovers like Week 13. The Rams pull away in the second half, covering -10.5 comfortably and advancing to face Seattle in the Divisional Round.

Here's where we're putting our confidence:

Rams -10.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Over 46.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High confidence)
Rams ML -600: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence, but poor value)
Panthers ML +440: ⭐⭐ (Low confidence, lottery ticket only)

This is a max-bet spot on Rams -10.5. L.A.'s 12-5 ATS record (best in NFL), Stafford's MVP candidacy and revenge motivation, and the Panthers' statistical fluke Week 13 win create one of the strongest favorites of Wild Card Weekend. Load up on the Rams spread, hammer over 46.5, and focus on Puka Nacua Over 7.5 receptions at +110 as your best player prop. Avoid Panthers ML +440 unless you're betting 0.25 units for entertainment.