NFL Wild Card Betting: Seahawks Bye Week Betting Guide + Futures Picks and Divisional Round Lookahead

Quick Answer

Best Super Bowl futures bet: Seahawks +350 to +425 (23-27% implied). Best odds, #1 seed, fewest points allowed in NFL (17.2 PPG).

Best NFC Championship bet: Seahawks +170 to +185. Home-field advantage through NFC Championship, will host all games at Lumen Field.

Sam Darnold concern: 0-1 in playoffs (9 sacks, 27-9 loss vs. Rams last year). Playoff inexperience is a major risk.

Most favorable opponent: Panthers (8-9). Weakest team in NFC playoffs, would be 15-point favorite.

Toughest opponent: Rams (12-5). Already beat Seahawks' Sam Darnold 27-9 in last year's playoffs. Veteran QB Stafford.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

The Seahawks' Bye Week Status

The Seattle Seahawks secured the NFC's top seed by dominating the San Francisco 49ers 13-3 in Week 18. They earned their first playoff bye since 2014 and first No. 1 seed since 2014. This marks a stunning turnaround from Mike Macdonald's first season. The Seahawks went from 60-1 Super Bowl odds in preseason to +350 favorites entering the playoffs.

Playoff Seeding & Schedule

• Seed: No. 1 NFC (14-3 record)
• First Game: Divisional Round, January 17-18, 2026
• Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
• Opponent: Lowest remaining NFC seed from Wild Card Weekend

Who the Seahawks Could Face

The Seahawks will face the lowest remaining seed after Wild Card Weekend. Four possible opponents, ranked by probability:

1. Green Bay Packers (9-7-1, No. 7 seed)

Probability: 50% (Most likely)

When They Face Seattle: If Packers upset Bears

Head-to-Head in 2025: Did not play

Projected Spread: Seahawks -3.5

Projected Total: 45.5

Jordan Love cleared from concussion protocol but rested Week 18. The Packers are 6-10-1 ATS this season (37.5%), worst among NFC playoff teams. They're on a 4-game losing streak entering playoffs (only 4th team ever to do so). Rust concern: Love hasn't played competitive football since Week 16.

Key factors: Love averaged 225.4 pass YPG with 23 TDs and 6 INTs this season. Josh Jacobs rushed for 1,653 yards but struggled in December. The Seahawks' #1 scoring defense (17.2 PPG) neutralizes Love's weapons. Weather advantage goes to Seattle (rain favors home team).

Betting Edge: Seahawks -3.5 is a 2-unit play if Packers advance. Love's rust and 4-game skid create value.

2. Los Angeles Rams (12-5, No. 5 seed)

Probability: 30% (Second most likely)

When They Face Seattle: If Rams beat Panthers AND Eagles beat 49ers AND Bears beat Packers

Head-to-Head in 2025: Did not play, but Rams beat Darnold's Vikings 27-9 in 2024 playoffs

Projected Spread: Seahawks -1.5

Projected Total: 49.5

This is the toughest draw for Seattle. MVP favorite Matthew Stafford (46 TDs, 8 INTs) and the Rams already destroyed Sam Darnold in last year's playoffs (27-9, 9 sacks). The Rams have the #1 offense in NFL (30.5 PPG, 418.7 YPG) with a psychological edge. They know exactly how to pressure Darnold.

Key factors: Stafford posted a career renaissance at age 37 (46 TDs, franchise record). Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp form an elite WR duo. The Rams' defense ranked 23rd in opponent EPA since Week 13, so they're vulnerable. Rematch narrative: Darnold seeks revenge for his 2024 playoff meltdown.

Betting Edge: Seahawks -1.5 is a 1-unit play max. This is a near pick'em for good reason.

3. San Francisco 49ers (12-5, No. 6 seed)

Probability: 18% (Third most likely)

When They Face Seattle: If 49ers upset Eagles AND (Packers/Panthers lose)

Head-to-Head in 2025: Seahawks swept 2-0 (24-20 in Week 9, 13-3 in Week 18)

Projected Spread: Seahawks -5.5

Projected Total: 46.5

This is a third meeting this season, so the Seahawks know the 49ers' tendencies. Nick Bosa is OUT (torn ACL), Fred Warner is OUT (ankle), so the defense is decimated. The 49ers defense ranked 31st in success rate and 26th in EPA without Bosa/Warner. Trent Williams (hamstring) is questionable, which would be a massive loss if he can't go.

Key factors: The Seahawks shut down the 49ers 13-3 in Week 18 with the top seed on the line. They held Christian McCaffrey to 2.9 yards per carry. Brock Purdy threw for only 127 yards in Week 18, his worst game of the season. The 49ers scored only 3 points in the biggest game of the year.

Betting Edge: Seahawks -5.5 is a 3-unit MAX bet if 49ers advance. Injuries doom San Francisco.

4. Carolina Panthers (8-9, No. 4 seed)

Probability: 2% (Least likely)

When They Face Seattle: If Panthers upset Rams AND Eagles beat 49ers AND Bears beat Packers

Head-to-Head in 2025: Did not play

Projected Spread: Seahawks -13 to -15

Projected Total: 40-42

This is the most favorable matchup for Seattle. The Panthers are 8-9 division champions and the weakest playoff team. Bryce Young transformed from "bust" to franchise QB, but he's still learning. The Panthers allow 24.4 PPG (23rd in NFL) and are vulnerable to elite offenses.

Key factors: The Panthers scored only 14 points in Week 18 with everything on the line. Their passing offense is dead last in the NFL (145.5 YPG). Teams with losing records are 2-6 all-time in playoffs. The Seahawks would be massive 13-15 point favorites.

Betting Edge: Seahawks -13 is a max-bet spot if Panthers pull the upset. This would be a mismatch.

Super Bowl Futures: Best Bets

Seahawks to Win Super Bowl (+350 to +425) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Current Odds: +350 at DraftKings, +425 at TheScore Bet

Implied Probability: 22.2% at +350, 19.0% at +425

Payout on $100: $350-$425 profit

Seattle has the best Super Bowl odds of any playoff team. They're the #1 seed with home-field advantage through the NFC Championship. They have the #1 scoring defense in the NFL (17.2 PPG allowed), the fewest points in the league. The Seahawks allowed 292 total points (fewest in NFL by 3 points). They're 3rd in rush defense (91.9 YPG) and 1st in third-down defense (32.1%). They allow a 50% red zone TD rate (5th-best).

Mike Macdonald's defense has been historic for a first-year coordinator. Weather advantage: January games in Seattle favor the home team with rain. They went from 60-1 preseason odds to +350 favorites, which validates the turnaround. ESPN's FPI gives the Seahawks a 20% chance (best in NFL) and a 58.4% chance to reach the NFC Championship per FPI.

The risk factors: Sam Darnold's playoff inexperience is brutal. He's 0-1 in playoffs with 9 sacks, a 41.9% completion rate, and a 27-9 loss. Darnold threw 17 INTs in the regular season (tied for 3rd-most). His QBR of only 34.2 is below league average. He posted a 157.9 passer rating vs. the Falcons but a 41.9% completion rate vs. the Lions in the finale. If the Rams advance, they already know how to pressure Darnold (9 sacks last year).

At +350 to +425 odds, the Seahawks offer exceptional value as the NFL's best defense with home-field advantage throughout. This is the single best Super Bowl futures bet available.

Recommended Bet: 3-unit MAX play at +425 or better, 2-unit play at +350

Seahawks to Win NFC Championship (+170 to +185) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Current Odds: +170 at Caesars, +185 at DraftKings

Implied Probability: 37.0% at +170, 35.1% at +185

Payout on $100: $170-$185 profit

They'll host every game through the NFC Championship at Lumen Field. ESPN's FPI projects a 58.4% chance to reach the NFC Championship. The #1 defense in the NFC will dominate at home. They have the easiest path among NFC contenders and will likely face the Packers (4-game skid) or Panthers (8-9).

The Seahawks are 7-1 at home this season. Weather advantage: Rain and cold favor defense-first teams. The Bears (No. 2 seed) and Eagles (No. 3 seed) must win road games to reach Seattle.

This is the best Seahawks futures bet available. At +170 to +185 odds (35-37% implied), Seattle's true probability is closer to 50-55% given their defensive dominance and home-field advantage.

Recommended Bet: 4-unit MAX play at +185 or better, 3-unit at +170

Seahawks to Reach Super Bowl (-170) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Current Odds: -170 (implied 63%)

Payout on $100: $58.82 profit

ESPN's FPI projects a 58.4% chance, which is slightly better than the market implies. Home-field advantage + #1 defense create a significant edge. Their path to the Super Bowl: Beat Packers/Panthers in Divisional, then host the NFC Championship. The Seahawks' defense ranked 1st in scoring (17.2 PPG), 1st in third down (32.1%), and 3rd in rush (91.9 YPG).

At -170 odds, this bet offers moderate value for conservative bettors who believe Seattle reaches the Super Bowl but might lose to the AFC champion.

Recommended Bet: 2-unit play at -170 or better

Sam Darnold Super Bowl MVP (+2500) ⭐⭐

Current Odds: +2500 (3.8% implied probability)

Payout on $100: $2,500 profit

Compare: The Seahawks have +350 Super Bowl odds (22.2% implied), but Darnold is priced at +2500 (3.8%). In a typical Seahawks win, who else would win MVP? The defense could win, but the QB is usually favored. Darnold threw for 4,048 yards and 19 TDs this season, which are solid numbers. He only needs to win MVP in 17.2% of Seahawks Super Bowl victories to have value.

The risk factors: Darnold's 17 INTs (3rd-most in NFL) could cost him MVP votes. The defense might dominate and steal votes (2014 Super Bowl MVP was Malcolm Smith). His QBR of 34.2 suggests inconsistent performance. Darnold's playoff inexperience (0-1, 9 sacks) creates uncertainty.

At +2500 odds, this is a speculative lottery ticket for bettors who believe Seattle wins the Super Bowl. Better value exists at Seahawks +350 to win outright.

Recommended Bet: 0.25-unit lottery ticket at +2500

Divisional Round Betting Strategy

Best Case Scenario: Seahawks vs. Panthers

Projected Line: Seahawks -13 to -15

Projected Total: 40-42

How to bet it:

• Seahawks -13 (4-unit MAX bet). The Panthers are 8-9 with the worst passing offense in the NFL. Seattle's defense is elite.
• Under 42 total. Both defenses are strong. The Panthers scored only 14 in Week 18.
• Seahawks 1H -7.5. Seattle starts fast at home. The Panthers can't keep pace.

Likely Scenario: Seahawks vs. Packers

Projected Line: Seahawks -3.5

Projected Total: 45.5

How to bet it:

• Seahawks -3.5 (2-unit play). Love's rust from Week 18 rest. Packers on 4-game losing streak.
• Under 45.5. Seahawks' #1 scoring defense (17.2 PPG) limits Love at home.
• Sam Darnold Over 215.5 passing yards. Packers' defense is vulnerable. Darnold needs to throw to beat zone.

Tough Draw: Seahawks vs. Rams

Projected Line: Seahawks -1.5

Projected Total: 49.5

How to bet it:

• Seahawks ML -116 (1-unit play max). Near pick'em, but home field and defense create slight edge.
• Over 49.5. Both offenses are elite. Rams' #1 offense vs. Seahawks' #1 defense creates a shootout.
• Sam Darnold Under 1.5 Passing TDs. Rams know how to pressure Darnold (9 sacks last year).

Moderate Draw: Seahawks vs. 49ers

Projected Line: Seahawks -5.5

Projected Total: 46.5

How to bet it:

• Seahawks -5.5 (3-unit play). 49ers decimated by Bosa/Warner injuries. Seattle won 13-3 in Week 18.
• Under 46.5. Seahawks held 49ers to 3 points in Week 18. Defense dominates at home.
• Christian McCaffrey Under 62.5 rushing yards. Seahawks held him to 2.9 YPC in Week 18.

Sam Darnold Playoff Outlook

Regular Season Stats (2025 with Seahawks)

Darnold put up 4,048 passing yards (3rd among Seahawks QBs all-time), 19 passing TDs, 17 INTs (tied for 3rd-most INTs in NFL), a 66.3% completion rate, 92.5 passer rating, and a QBR of 34.2 (below league average). He signed a $66.5 million contract (3-year extension in December).

Playoff History

2024 Playoffs with Minnesota Vikings:

• 0-1 record (27-9 loss to Rams in Wild Card)
• 9 sacks for 82 yards (worst playoff performance by any QB in a decade)
• 41.9% completion rate (18 of 41 passes), 166 yards, 0 TDs
• Lost fumble returned for TD
• Rams dominated with interior pressure and know Darnold's weaknesses

Playoff Concerns

Against elite defenses: Darnold threw a 157.9 passer rating vs. the Falcons in Week 14 (5 TDs). But he posted a 41.9% completion rate vs. the Lions in the finale with the top seed on the line. Inconsistency is a major red flag in high-stakes games.

Turnover-prone: He threw 17 INTs this season (tied for 3rd-most in NFL). His QBR of 34.2 suggests he makes mistakes under pressure. If the Rams advance, they already know exactly how to rattle Darnold.

Playoff Readiness

Positives:

• Back-to-back 14-win seasons with different teams (Vikings 2024, Seahawks 2025)
• Only QB ever to win 14+ games in first season with two different franchises
• Resurrected career after 21-34 record with Jets (2018-2020)
• Led Minnesota to 5-0 start and 14-3 record last year before playoff meltdown
• Geno Smith's mentorship has helped Darnold mature

Concerns:

• Zero successful playoff performances (0-1 with 9 sacks)
• Seahawks are "confident" Darnold learned from last year's disaster
• But Mike Macdonald admitted: "We need Sam to play better than he did last year"
• If pressure gets to Darnold again, Seahawks' Super Bowl dreams end

Darnold is good enough to manage games with an elite defense, but he's unlikely to carry the Seahawks alone. Seattle's path to the Super Bowl relies on defense + home-field advantage + favorable matchups.

Our Final Predictions

Super Bowl Path Prediction

Divisional Round: Seahawks 24, Packers 17 (Seahawks cover -3.5)

NFC Championship: Seahawks 20, Eagles 17 (Seahawks cover +1)

Super Bowl LX: Seahawks 27, Broncos 24 (Seahawks win, cover +3)

Best Bets Summary

BetOddsUnitsConfidenceSeahawks NFC Championship +185+1854 units⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Seahawks Super Bowl +425+4253 units⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Seahawks to Reach Super Bowl -170-1702 units⭐⭐⭐⭐Sam Darnold Super Bowl MVP +2500+25000.25 units⭐⭐

Divisional Round Lookahead Bets

If Packers advance:

• Seahawks -3.5 (2 units) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Under 45.5 (1.5 units) ⭐⭐⭐

If Panthers advance:

• Seahawks -13 (4 units MAX) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Under 42 (3 units) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If Rams advance:

• Seahawks ML -116 (1 unit max) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over 49.5 (1 unit) ⭐⭐⭐

If 49ers advance:

• Seahawks -5.5 (3 units) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Under 46.5 (2 units) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Where to Go From Here

If you're betting futures: Master Super Bowl odds line shopping to find Seahawks +425 at TheScore Bet versus +350 at DraftKings. That's $75 difference on a $100 bet.

If you're betting divisional round: Learn how home-field advantage impacts playoff spreads in rainy Seattle weather conditions.

Want a deeper edge? Use QB playoff performance data to gauge Darnold's probability of bouncing back from last year's 9-sack disaster.