NFL

NFL Wild Card Betting: Texans vs Steelers Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Underdog Chances

Two teams with absolutely brutal playoff streaks meet Monday night, and one of them has to lose. The Steelers haven't won a playoff game since 2017 (0-6), and the Texans have never won a road playoff game (0-6). But here's the kicker: Pittsburgh is 23-0 at home on Monday Night Football since 1991. Something's gotta give, and the betting value is screaming Steelers.

January 22, 2026

What You Need to Know

Here's everything that matters before you place your bets:

Best bet: Steelers +3 (-118) — Tomlin is 23-9-3 ATS as home underdog (70%+ cover rate), Steelers are 23-0 on MNF at home since 1991

Best total play: Under 38.5 (-110) — Lowest playoff total since 2007, both defenses are elite, cold weather favors defense

Best player prop: DK Metcalf Over 62.5 receiving yards (-114) — He averaged 112.8 YPG in 4 career playoff games, Texans allow 243.9 pass YPG (30th)

Biggest mistake: Ignoring Steelers' home playoff underdog history — Pittsburgh is 3-2 ATS as home underdog in playoffs under Tomlin

Pro tip: Dome teams are 1-14 in road playoff games under 40°F over last 10 years. The Texans are 0-4 in those spots.

This Wild Card finale is loaded with irony. DeMeco Ryans has the Texans rolling on a nine-game winning streak, the longest active run in the NFL. But they play indoors at NRG Stadium and have never won a playoff game on the road. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin's Steelers are desperate to end their six-game playoff losing streak, and they've got Aaron Rodgers back with DK Metcalf returning from suspension. The stage is set for chaos.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

The Matchup

Here's what you're working with Monday night:

Who's Playing: No. 5 Houston Texans (12-5) @ No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

When: Monday, January 12, 2026, 8:15 PM ET

Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Watch: ESPN/ABC (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Lisa Salters)

Where the Lines Are

Here's what the books are offering:

Spread: Texans -3 (-102) | Steelers +3 (-118)

Moneyline: Texans -155 | Steelers +130

Total: 38.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)

The line opened at Texans -2.5 and moved to -3 despite mixed public action. The total of 38.5 is the lowest playoff game total since 2007. Oddsmakers are expecting a defensive slugfest.

What the Smart Money Is Doing

The betting market is showing some interesting movement. Here's what's happening:

On the spread:

Line moved from Texans -2.5 to -3
Then fluctuated between 3 and 3.5
Sharp action is on Steelers +3 getting respected money despite public backing Houston

On the total:

Slight lean towards under
Bookmakers are comfortable with the 38.5-39.5 range

Some trends you need to know:

Steelers are 23-9-3 ATS as home underdogs under Tomlin (70%+ cover rate)
Steelers are 23-0 straight up at home on Monday Night Football since October 14, 1991
Steelers are 0-6 in playoffs since 2017, lost by average of 38.3 PPG, outscored 73-0 in first quarters
Texans are 0-6 all-time in road playoff games
Texans are 0-4 in cold weather road playoff games (temps under 40°F)
Dome teams are 1-14 in road playoff games under 40°F over last 10 years
Both teams are 9-8 ATS this season

Breaking Down Both Teams

Houston Texans

DeMeco Ryans' Texans enter riding a nine-game winning streak. They've become a legitimate Super Bowl contender (+1500 odds) behind a defense that's absolutely suffocating.

What makes their defense dominant:

#1 total defense in NFL: 285.2 YPG allowed
#2 scoring defense: 18.8 PPG allowed
Led by elite pass rush duo: Will Anderson Jr. (12 sacks) and Danielle Hunter (15 sacks)
23 interceptions (2nd in NFL), 31 total takeaways
+17 turnover differential during regular season

What makes their offense dangerous:

C.J. Stroud: 3,041 yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs, 64.5% completion rate
Stroud averaged 217.2 passing YPG but struggled in road playoffs (0-2, no TDs)
Nico Collins: 1,117 yards, 71 catches, 6 TDs on 120 targets (elite WR1)
Collins is on a 9-game streak of 50+ receiving yards (longest in NFL heading into playoffs)
Joe Mixon: 1,107 rushing yards on 4.3 YPC, elite pass-catching RB (81.6% catch rate)

The concerns with Houston:

0-6 all-time in road playoff games
Never won a conference championship or advanced past the Divisional Round
Allowed 30 points to the Colts' 4th-string rookie QB in Week 18 (season-high)
Texans teams struggle in the cold: 0-4 in road playoff games under 40°F
They play indoors at NRG Stadium and are unfamiliar with outdoor January football

Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Tomlin's Steelers closed strong (4-1 in last 5 games) to capture their first AFC North title in five years. But that six-game playoff losing streak is hanging over them like a dark cloud.

What makes their offense click:

Aaron Rodgers: 3,322 yards, 24 TDs, 7 INTs, 65.7% completion rate in his age-42 season
Rodgers has thrown for 210+ pass yards in his last 10 playoff appearances (playoff warrior)
DK Metcalf returns from suspension: 850 yards, 6 TDs, leads team in receiving
Metcalf averaged 112.8 YPG in 4 career playoff games (most in NFL history with 4+ games)
Rodgers' passer rating jumps 22 points with Metcalf on the field
Jaylen Warren: 958 rushing yards, 6 TDs. He scored a TD in 4 of last 5 games as underdog

The defensive concerns are real:

30th in pass defense: 243.9 pass YPG allowed
Allow fourth-most catches per game (5.4) to opposing WR1s
Opportunistic defense that feasts on turnovers but vulnerable to elite offenses
Gave up 230 points in last 6 playoff games (38.3 PPG average)
Outscored 73-0 in first quarters of last 6 playoff games

Their home field advantage matters:

23-0 on Monday Night Football at home since 1991
70%+ ATS cover rate as home underdog under Tomlin (23-9-3)
Rodgers thrives in cold weather playoff games
Closed season 4-1, unlike last year's 4-game skid into playoffs

What the Experts Are Saying

This matchup splits experts more than any other Wild Card game. The Steelers' home underdog value is clashing against Houston's momentum. Here's where the media landed:

RotoWire Staff: 3 of 4 pick Texans ML
FPI/AI Models: Texans 54.4%, Steelers 45.6%
Madden 26 Simulation: Texans 19, Steelers 17
Clutch Points: Steelers +3, Under 38.5
VSIN: Texans -3
Covers: Split predictions, lean Steelers +3

The consensus leans Texans to win, but sharp bettors favor Steelers +3 to cover.

Our Top Plays

Spread Pick: Steelers +3 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a max-bet situation. Here's why you should load up on Pittsburgh:

Tomlin is 23-9-3 ATS as a home underdog (70%+ cover rate). That's an elite situational angle you can't ignore. The Steelers are 23-0 at home on Monday Night Football since 1991. Dome teams are 1-14 in road playoff games under 40°F over the last 10 years, and the Texans are 0-4 in those spots.

The Steelers are 3-2 ATS as home playoff underdogs under Tomlin. DK Metcalf returns after suspension, and Rodgers' rating jumps 22 points with him on the field. The Texans are 0-6 all-time in road playoff games and have never won away from NRG Stadium.

Cold weather (low 30s) massively favors Pittsburgh's experience. Rodgers has tons of playoff experience compared to Stroud's road playoff struggles (0-2, no TDs). Multiple expert sources favor Steelers +3, including Clutch Points, Sports Chat Place, and contrarian betting models.

Look, I get it. The Texans are the hotter team. But you're getting three points with a team that historically dominates at home on Monday nights, with a Hall of Fame quarterback who's played in more playoff games than most people have had hot meals. Take the points.

Total Pick: Under 38.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is the lowest playoff total since 2007, and for good reason. Oddsmakers are expecting a defensive slugfest, and so should you.

The Texans have the #1 total defense and #2 scoring defense (18.8 PPG). The Steelers offense ranked 18th in EPA per play (0.028) during the regular season. Cold weather (32-35°F) favors defense and creates ball handling issues.

The Texans scored 19 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 road games. The Steelers average 103.3 rush YPG and won't sustain drives vs. the elite Texans front. Bookmakers are "comfortable" with the 38.5-39.5 range with a slight lean to the under.

Playoff nerves, conservative game plans, and field position battles all point to a low-scoring affair. Expert consensus overwhelmingly favors under 38.5, including Rotoworld Bet, VSIN, and Clutch Points.

This game is going to be ugly, grinding, and stressful. Both teams will play not to lose. Cash the under and thank me later.

Moneyline Value: Steelers ML +130 (0.5-Unit Sprinkle) ⭐⭐⭐

At +130, the Steelers offer incredible value given their 23-0 Monday night home record, Tomlin's home underdog success, and the Texans' 0-6 road playoff history. This is a small-unit lottery ticket on the upset. Don't mortgage your house, but a half-unit sprinkle makes total sense here.

Player Props We Actually Like

DK Metcalf Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Metcalf is a playoff monster. He averaged 112.8 YPG in 4 career playoff games (most in NFL history with 4+ games). He leads the Steelers with 850 yards and 6 TDs despite missing the final 2 games.

Rodgers' passer rating jumps 22 points when Metcalf is on the field. The Texans allow 243.9 pass YPG (30th in NFL). The Steelers allow the fourth-most catches to WR1s (5.4 per game).

Metcalf had 7 catches for 148 yards vs. the Ravens in Week 14 before his suspension. He's a playoff warrior with 5 TDs in 4 playoff games. DeMeco Ryans even acknowledged Metcalf gives the Steelers "their full offense."

This line feels low for a guy who averages 112 yards per playoff game. Smash the over.

Odds: -114

Nico Collins Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Collins is on a 9-game streak of 50+ receiving yards (longest in NFL entering playoffs). He put up 1,117 yards and 71 catches on 120 targets this season. He averaged 74.5 YPG.

The Steelers allow the fourth-most yards to opposing WR1s (63 YPG). Their pass defense ranks 30th (243.9 YPG allowed). FTN Projection has him at 92.7 yards (21.4% edge). He's cleared 55+ yards in every game since early November.

Collins is a playoff monster too: 81 yards vs. Chiefs, 81 yards in another playoff game. He's Stroud's security blanket, and the Steelers can't cover him.

Odds: -110

Joe Mixon Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-109) ⭐⭐

Mixon cleared 65+ rushing yards in 7 of his last 8 games as a road favorite. He rushed for 1,107 yards on 4.3 YPC this season. The Steelers allow 103.3 rush YPG (mid-tier run defense).

The Texans will lean on the run game to control the clock and keep Rodgers off the field. Mixon topped 100 rushing yards in 7 of 10 games before a late-season ankle injury. He's got elite pass-catching efficiency (81.6% catch rate).

Odds: -109 to -110

Aaron Rodgers Over 204.5 Passing Yards (-114) ⭐⭐

Rodgers averaged 207.6 passing YPG this season and threw for 210+ pass yards in his last 10 playoff appearances. That's playoff consistency you can bank on.

He gets DK Metcalf back, who creates a 22-point passer rating jump. The Texans allow the 3rd-worst pass defense among playoff teams. If the Texans stop the run (103.3 YPG), Rodgers will be forced to throw 35+ times.

He cleared 204.5 in 10 of 16 games this season (62.5%). Stroud's passing prop is 13.3 yards higher than his season average due to the Steelers' weak pass defense.

Odds: -114

C.J. Stroud Over 234-239.5 Passing Yards (-114) ⭐

Stroud averaged 217.2 passing YPG this season. The line is set 13.3 yards above his season average because the Steelers allow 243.9 pass YPG (30th). They're the worst pass defense in Wild Card Weekend.

Stroud exceeded 228.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 road games. He cleared 234+ in 7 of 14 games this season (50%). If the Texans fall behind early, Stroud will be forced to throw more.

The risk here is real though: Stroud is 0-2 in road playoffs with no TDs accounted for. But the matchup is too good to ignore.

Odds: -111 to -114

Other Props Worth Considering

Jaylen Warren Anytime TD (+110 to +150): Warren scored a TD in 4 of the Steelers' last 5 games as underdogs. He rushed for 958 yards and 6 TDs this season. He cleared 68+ rushing yards in his last 4 games following a home win. He's the primary goal-line back with Najee Harris gone. The Texans' elite defense will limit scores, making each TD valuable.

Pat Freiermuth Anytime TD (+180 to +200): Darnell Washington is out, so Freiermuth is seeing increased playing time. He's Rodgers' trusted red zone target. He nearly scored a TD vs. the Ravens in Week 18. Elite tight ends can exploit the Texans' aggressive linebacker play.

Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-225): Rodgers averaged 1.5 passing TDs per game this season. The Texans allow 1.8 pass TDs per game (10th in NFL). Rodgers cleared 1.5 in only 6 of 16 games (37.5%). The low-scoring game is projected at 38.5 total. The Steelers may rely on the run game and field goals.

How the Weather Plays In

Here's what you're dealing with Monday night:

Temperature: 32-35°F at kickoff (feels like mid-20s)
Wind: 8-12 mph, manageable conditions
Precipitation: Minimal chance, mostly clear to partly cloudy
Sky: Mostly clear, good visibility

The cold weather is the biggest factor in this game. Dome teams are 1-14 in road playoff games under 40°F over the last decade, and the Texans are 0-4 in those spots. Pittsburgh thrives in cold home games, while Houston's indoor-only experience at NRG Stadium puts them at a massive disadvantage.

Ball handling, finger numbness for Stroud, and offensive line communication all favor the Steelers. This isn't just a narrative. It's a real statistical edge.

What Each Team Needs to Do

Here's what the Texans need to focus on:

Establish the run game with Mixon to control the clock, keep Rodgers off the field, and neutralize the crowd
Pressure Rodgers relentlessly (Anderson/Hunter must collapse the pocket and force mistakes)
Force turnovers (the Texans' 23 INTs and +17 TO differential is their identity)
Collins must dominate and exploit the Steelers' 30th-ranked pass defense early
Overcome road playoff demons and break the 0-6 road playoff streak mentally

Here's what the Steelers need to focus on:

Protect Rodgers at all costs (cannot allow Anderson/Hunter to wreck the game)
Feed DK Metcalf early and often (exploit the weak Texans secondary and establish rhythm)
Win the first quarter (cannot fall behind 21-0 like the last 6 playoff games)
Control time of possession and keep the elite Texans defense off the field with Warren/run game
Leverage the home crowd and cold (23-0 MNF record, dome team struggles in cold)

The Steelers' Path to Victory

The Steelers have multiple paths to victory as 3-point home underdogs. Let me break down how they can pull this off:

Path 1: Rodgers Outduels Stroud

Rodgers threw for 210+ pass yards in his last 10 playoff games. Stroud is 0-2 in road playoffs. DK Metcalf returns and creates a 22-point passer rating boost. Rodgers thrives in cold weather while Stroud struggles outdoors.

Path 2: Texans' Road Playoff Curse Continues

Houston is 0-6 all-time in road playoff games. Dome teams are 1-14 in cold weather road playoff games (under 40°F). The Texans allowed 30 points to the Colts' 4th-string QB in Week 18.

Path 3: Monday Night Magic

The Steelers are 23-0 at home on MNF since 1991. Tomlin is 23-9-3 ATS as a home underdog (70%+ cover rate). The Acrisure Stadium crowd in primetime combined with Tomlin's motivational prowess is real.

Path 4: Low-Scoring Defensive Battle

The total is set at 38.5 (lowest since 2007). The Steelers only need 16-20 points to cover +3. One Chris Boswell field goal can be the difference in a tight game.

Realistic Underdog Win Percentage: 40-45%

The market has Houston at -155 (60.8% implied probability), but the Steelers' situational advantages suggest they have a 40-45% chance to win outright. That makes +130 ML excellent value.

Our Final Call

Here's how we see it playing out:

Score: Texans 20, Steelers 17

ATS Winner: Steelers +3 ✓

Total: Under 38.5 ✓

The Texans' superior talent and nine-game winning streak carry them to a narrow victory. But the Steelers' home-field advantage, Monday night dominance, and Tomlin's home underdog mastery keep this within a field goal.

Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf combine for 300+ passing yards, but the elite Texans defense makes just enough stops in the second half. Chris Boswell kicks a late field goal to bring Pittsburgh within 3, but Houston runs out the clock. The Steelers cover despite losing, and the Texans finally break their road playoff curse.

Here's where we're putting our confidence:

Steelers +3: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Under 38.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
Steelers ML +130: ⭐⭐⭐ (Moderate confidence, value play)

This is a max-bet spot on Steelers +3 and Under 38.5. The confluence of Tomlin's 70%+ home underdog ATS record, Pittsburgh's 23-0 Monday night home record, and dome teams' 1-14 record in cold road playoff games creates one of the strongest underdog cases in recent playoff history. Load up on the Steelers spread, hammer the under, and sprinkle Steelers ML at +130 for lottery ticket value.