Overtime Rules and the Impact on Totals

The 2025 Regular-Season OT Rule in Plain Betting Terms

Under the updated rule:

Both teams are assured a possession in regular-season overtime, even if the first team scores a touchdown.

Regular-season overtime is limited to 10 minutes, which creates an edge case: if the team with the ball uses essentially the whole period, the other team may not get a possession.

The only way the first possession ends the game immediately is if the defense scores (pick-six or fumble TD) or records a safety.

Regular-season OT rules:

• Both teams get possession (even if first team scores TD)
• 10-minute limit (edge case: team uses whole period)
• First possession ends game immediately only if defense scores

In the playoffs:

Both teams are guaranteed a possession and there is no 10-minute cap. Overtime is treated like a new 15-minute quarter and continues until a winner is decided.

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How This Affects Totals (Pregame)

Most NFL totals are settled including overtime points, but overtime is still a relatively small slice of total scoring across the league. So the pregame totals impact is usually second-order:

The rule slightly increases the probability of some extra points when games reach OT (because more drives are guaranteed).

But the probability of OT itself hasn't exploded just because the rules changed. OT still requires a tie through 60 minutes.

So you shouldn't expect books to move a total by 2 to 3 points just because "OT is different." Any adjustment is more subtle and often already baked in.

Pregame totals impact:

• Rule slightly increases extra points in OT (more drives guaranteed)
• But OT probability hasn't exploded (still requires tie through 60)
• Don't expect books to move total 2 to 3 points
• Adjustment subtle, often already baked in

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Where the Real Totals Impact Shows Up (Live Betting Plus Key Numbers)

The bigger effect is how bettors should handle late-game and OT live totals:

End-of-regulation live totals: If a game is tied late, older rules made the first touchdown or certain first-score sequences more decisive. Now, the expectation of "both teams get a chance" can slightly increase late-game total expectations (books may shade live overs a bit higher), because the distribution shifts toward "multiple possessions possible" rather than "one lightning drive ends it."

OT live totals: Because both teams are expected to touch the ball (barring the clock edge case), OT live totals become more about drive efficiency and clock management than about "win coin toss, win game."

Team totals and "next score" markets: The value in OT can shift toward teams with better short-yardage conversion, better red zone efficiency, and kickers you trust.

Where real totals impact shows up:

• End-of-regulation live totals (both teams get chance)
• Books may shade live overs higher
• OT live totals about drive efficiency, not coin toss
• Team totals favor short-yardage, red zone, kickers

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Does It Create an "Over" Bias?

Not automatically. Extra possessions can create extra points, but they can also create longer OT drives that end in field goals, or even no-score overtime with clock drain.

The 10-minute cap matters. The clock can reduce the "both teams touch it" guarantee in practice.

Why it doesn't create auto-over bias:

• Extra possessions can create extra points
• But also longer OT drives ending in FGs
• Or no-score overtime with clock drain
• 10-minute cap reduces "both teams touch it" guarantee

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Sides and Moneylines: The Bigger Impact

If you're honest, overtime rule changes matter more to sides than totals:

Underdogs benefit when games are more likely to feature "both teams possess," because it reduces the coin-toss leverage and can keep the weaker team alive longer.

Favorites lose some "win the toss, steal it" advantage.

But totals do get affected around the margins, especially when books and bettors are slow to update their intuition.

How OT rules impact sides:

• Underdogs benefit (both teams possess, less coin-toss leverage)
• Favorites lose "win toss, steal it" advantage
• Totals affected around margins
• Books and bettors slow to update intuition

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The Bettor's Takeaway

Overtime rules change the distribution of outcomes in close games, not the nature of football. The sharp way to use it is: don't overreact in pregame totals, do adjust your late-game live totals intuition, and remember that playoff OT is a different animal (no cap, more possessions, higher fatigue effects). Regular season OT is 10 minutes (edge case where team uses whole period), playoffs have no cap (treated like new 15-minute quarter).

 Both teams get possession in regular season even if first team scores TD, only exception is if defense scores or records safety. Pregame totals impact is subtle (extra points possible, but OT probability hasn't exploded). Real impact is live betting: end-of-regulation live totals, books shade overs higher, OT live totals about drive efficiency not coin toss. Doesn't create auto-over bias (extra possessions can end in FGs or no-score). Sides impacted more: underdogs benefit (less coin-toss leverage), favorites lose "win toss, steal it" advantage.