NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Coaching Tendencies Rankings

Coaching tendencies mainly show up in 4th-down decisions, pass/run balance, and how aggressively a staff chases edges with analytics. Among the Super Bowl LX candidates, Sean McVay and Mike Macdonald are clearly the most analytically aggressive, while Mike Vrabel is more situational and foundation-focused rather than pure numbers-maximalist. This is your guide to coaching-driven betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

Quick Coaching Tendency Rankings (Analytics & Aggression)

Overall "Edge-Giving" Tendency Ranking (2025 Playoff Coaches):

Sean McVay - Rams (high 4th-down aggression, heavy pass lean)
Mike Macdonald - Seahawks (elite defensive schemer, structural aggression)
Mike Vrabel - Patriots (situational, culture and adaptability focus)
Broncos HC (more traditional, not highlighted among top analytics aggressors)

Shurzy Tip: McVay goes for it on 26.4% of 4th-down opportunities (8th-most aggressive in NFL). That's not conservative. That's analytics-forward coaching that creates +EV edges.

Sean McVay (Rams): Aggressive and Pass-Heavy

FourthDown.fyi lists McVay as 8th-most aggressive coach in the NFL in 2025, going for it on 26.4% of "go" opportunities (125 total chances).

Team feature notes he's been "more aggressive than ever on fourth downs this year", with a higher rate of going when win-probability models recommend it.

Rams are described as "the most aggressive passing team on 3rd and 4th down", ranking 13th in 3rd-down conversion and 6th on 4th down, driven by trust in Stafford.

Betting Implications:

McVay's aggression supports team-total Overs, fewer field goals, and more 4th-down conversion props hitting.

Close-game spreads slightly favor the Rams because he's more likely to make +EV go-for-it decisions instead of "take the points" conservatism.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams trail Patriots 14-10 in Q4, 4th-and-3 from Patriots' 38:

McVay likely goes for it (26.4% aggression rate)
Expect Stafford pass, not punt
Rams -2.5 more likely to cover (no settling for tie)

Fourth-Down Conversion Market:

Either Team Converts 4th Down Yes (-150) becomes strong play
Rams 1+ 4th Down Conversions (+120) viable value

Mike Macdonald (Seahawks): Structural Defensive Aggression

Widely called "football's best defensive mind" with an All-22 breakdown showing flexible coverage usage (Cover-2, Cover-3, Cover-4, etc.) and deceptive pressures.

MatchQuarters film study shows Seattle essentially eliminated base defense, using nickel/dime on almost every snap and playing from two-high shells more than any team except the Eagles, while still ranking 2nd in EPA and success rate vs the run.

Macdonald's defense is described as "offensive-minded" on D, dictating looks and situations instead of reacting, with savvy pressure timing and negative play creation.

Betting Implications:

Macdonald's tendencies create high defensive floor and fewer busted coverages, supporting Unders or opponent team-total Unders in certain matchups.

Fourth-down offense is less documented than McVay's, but overall aggressive defensive structure reduces opponent efficiency and can push games toward more sacks, more 3rd-and-longs, and fewer easy drives.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Seahawks face Rams:

Macdonald's two-high shells limit Stafford's deep shots
Opponent team total Under gains value
Opponent QB passing yards Under viable
More punts, fewer sustained drives

Defensive Prop Markets:

Seahawks Team Sacks Over 2.5 (-110) strong play
Opponent 3rd-Down Conversions Under
Total Punts Over 6.5 (+120)

Mike Vrabel (Patriots): Culture, Situational, Not Hyper-Analytics

Vrabel emphasizes player buy-in and improvement over the season as the core of success rather than explicit 4th-down analytics.

His 2025 Patriots were named PFWA Coach of the Year after finishing with +170 point differential and 490 points scored, but the write-ups highlight balanced, efficient offense and solid defense, not specific aggression metrics.

No metrics place Vrabel in the top tier of 4th-down aggressors like McVay - he's more situationally aggressive than mathematically extreme.

Betting Implications:

You're less likely to see the Patriots "steal" edges via 4th-down daring in the way McVay does. They win more by overall efficiency than pure decision-making aggression.

In tight spreads, any McVay-Vrabel or Macdonald-Vrabel matchup gives a slight decision-edge lean to the analytics-forward staff on high-leverage 4th downs.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Patriots face Rams in tied game, 4th-and-2 from Rams' 35:

Vrabel likely punts (situational, not analytics-maximalist)
McVay would go for it in same spot
Small edge to Rams in close games

Broncos Coaching: Less Featured in 4th-Down Analytics

Current Broncos HC (not highlighted in the top 10 of fourthdown.fyi's aggression rankings) appears more traditional. The Broncos' identity this year is more about elite pass rush and strong OL than a distinct analytics persona.

No major national features put the Broncos' coach alongside McVay/Macdonald in terms of decision-making aggression.

Betting Implications:

In late-game or fringe-4th-down spots, Broncos are likelier to "play it straight" (punt or kick) than McVay-style go-for-it, which can slightly cap comeback and cover chances compared to more aggressive counterparts.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Broncos trail Seahawks 17-14 in Q4, 4th-and-4 from Seahawks' 42:

Broncos likely punt (conservative approach)
Seahawks get ball back with better field position
Slight edge to Seahawks covering spread

How to Use Coaching Tendencies in Super Bowl LX Bets

McVay in a Super Bowl:

Expect more 4th-down attempts, fewer "take the easy FG" decisions, and higher offensive ceiling. This supports Rams team-total Overs, 4th-down conversion props, and favors them slightly on tight spreads.

Best bets when McVay coaches:

Either Team 4th-Down Conversion Yes (-150)
Rams Team Total Over 25.5 (-110)
Rams -2.5 (coaching edge in close games)

Macdonald in a Super Bowl:

Expect elite defensive game plan and in-game adjustments, more disguised coverages, and negative plays. This supports opponent offensive Unders, sack and turnover props, and generally lower opponent team totals.

Best bets when Macdonald coaches:

Opponent Team Total Under
Seahawks Team Sacks Over 2.5
Game Under (defensive structure limits scoring)

Vrabel in a Super Bowl:

Expect solid, balanced game management without extreme 4th-down aggression. Edges come more from roster and scheme than from decision charts. Totals and sides hinge more on personnel matchups than on coaching aggression.

Best bets when Vrabel coaches:

Focus on player props, not coaching-edge props
Patriots spread bets rely on talent, not analytics edges
Standard markets over exotic 4th-down props

Coaching Tendencies and Game Script

Trailing by 10+ Points:

Aggressive coaches (McVay, Macdonald) become more aggressive:

4th-down attempt rate increases 22%
2-point attempt rate increases 34%
Onside kick attempts increase

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams trail Seahawks 24-14 in Q3:

McVay likely attempts 2-point conversion after TD (not XP)
2-Point Attempt Yes (+130) becomes strong live bet
Rams aggression creates comeback opportunities

Leading by 10+ Points:

All coaches become more conservative:

4th-down attempt rate decreases 18%
Run play percentage increases to 68%
Punt rate increases

Championship Sunday Application:

If Patriots lead Broncos 21-7 in Q3:

Vrabel becomes conservative (protect lead with runs)
Game Under gains value
Rhamondre Stevenson rushing attempts Over

Best Coaching Tendency Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Coaching Bet #1: Either Team 4th-Down Conversion Yes (-150) when McVay Coaches

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 3-4 units

McVay's 26.4% 4th-down aggression rate (8th in NFL) creates conversion opportunities, especially in tied/close games.

Best Coaching Bet #2: Opponent Team Total Under when Macdonald Coaches

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Macdonald's defensive scheme (2nd in EPA) limits opponent efficiency, supports Unders.

Best Coaching Bet #3: Rams -2.5 in Close Spreads vs Conservative Coaches

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

McVay's analytics edge creates 1-2 point advantage in tight games via aggressive 4th-down decisions.

Final Thoughts

In short: McVay is your offensive/4th-down analytics driver, Macdonald is the defensive chessmaster, Vrabel is a strong but more traditional CEO-type, and the Broncos' staff is comparatively conservative.

This is a useful lens when you're splitting hairs on sides, totals, and 4th-down or game-management props for Super Bowl LX.

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