NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Defensive Line Rankings and Sack Potential

Defensive line quality and sack production are central to Super Bowl LX handicapping because they directly shape QB efficiency, turnover risk, and drive success. Among the four contenders, Denver's pass rush is in its own tier, the Seahawks and Rams are strong but matchup-dependent, and the Patriots' front is good but not as dominant as Denver's. This is your guide to sack-driven betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

Pass Rush and Sack Rankings Snapshot

Broncos DL - Elite Sack Machine

Denver finished 2025 with 68 sacks, breaking the franchise record and posting the 5th-most sacks in NFL history
Articles note they led the league with 55+ sacks before the final week, well clear of second place
SharpFootball's defensive line stats list the Broncos among the top fronts in pressure rate and pass-rush metrics

Rams DL - High-End but Streaky

Rams' defense ranked 3rd in red-zone TD rate allowed (46.2%) and were viewed as one of the league's better units, though they "wilted towards the end" allowing several 27+ point games
Their line generates pressure but doesn't approach Denver's historic sack volume

Seahawks DL - Top-Tier Pressure Rate, Balanced Defense

Seattle's defense ranked 2nd in overall defensive EPA among team composites, with strong pass metrics
ESPN and other analytics note a top-five pressure rate; the Seahawks' front helped them finish near the top in opponent PPG and pass disruption

Patriots DL - Good Pressure, Not Elite Like Denver

New England's overall defensive profile is strong (top-10 scoring defense), and they recorded a solid sack total (48 team sacks in the regular season)
However, relative to Denver's 68-sack outlier, the Patriots' front sits a tier lower in pure pass-rush dominance

Shurzy Tip: Broncos' 68 sacks is the 5th-most in NFL history. That's not just "good pass rush." That's historic. Bet accordingly.

Likely Super Bowl Pass-Rush Matchups

Broncos DL vs NFC OL (Rams or Seahawks)

Against Rams OL (top-5 unit):

Strength-on-strength matchup: elite pass rush vs one of the league's best protection units. Expect some sacks, but the Rams' low pressure rate allowed (2nd-lowest in NFL) caps Denver's ceiling a bit.

Against Seahawks OL (solid but not elite):

Clear mismatch: Broncos' 68-sack front vs a line that has struggled at times in pure drop-back scenarios. This scenario would be the most sack-friendly Super Bowl pairing.

Betting Angles:

Any Broncos Super Bowl - Broncos team sacks Over and opposing QB sacks taken Over are prime targets, especially vs Seattle. Defensive TD/strip-sack props become more attractive in the Broncos-Seahawks case.

Championship Sunday Projection:

Broncos sacks Over 2.5 vs Seahawks (-110): High confidence, 2-3 units
Sam Darnold sacks taken Over 2.5 (+120): Maximum confidence, 3-4 units
Broncos Defense to Score TD (+140): 68-sack unit creates strip-sack opportunities

Seahawks DL vs AFC OL (Patriots or Broncos)

Against Patriots OL (weakest line in the group):

ESPN flags one playoff OL at 30th in pass block win rate and last in run block win rate, matching New England's profile as a concern unit. Seattle's top-five defense and strong pressure metrics make this a likely pro-Seahawks sack environment.

Against Broncos OL (No. 1 OL):

Best-on-best: elite Seattle front vs the league's top-ranked OL. Sack totals still possible but likely more modest.

Betting Angles:

Seahawks vs Patriots - Patriots sacks taken Over, Seahawks sacks Over, and Maye INT/sack-related props gain value.

Seahawks vs Broncos - More neutral; tread carefully with extreme sack ladders.

Rams DL vs AFC OL

Against Patriots OL:

Rams' front (on a top-3 defense by some metrics) vs a vulnerable line is a favorable pass-rush matchup. Turnover and sack props vs Maye get a boost.

Against Broncos OL:

More even; Broncos' top OL blunts LA's rush. Sacks still possible, but you can't assume a meltdown.

Betting Angles:

Rams vs Patriots - Rams sacks Over and potential Maye pressure-driven turnovers.

Rams vs Broncos - Sacks more likely to be driven by game script (obvious passing downs) than pure mismatch.

Patriots DL vs NFC OL

Against Rams OL:

Patriots have a solid rush, but Rams' OL quality suggests only moderate sack upside.

Against Seahawks OL:

Better spot: Patriots can exploit Seattle's more vulnerable protection, though still not to Broncos' level.

Betting Angles:

Pats vs Seahawks: reasonable Pats sacks Over play in a neutral script.

Pats vs Rams: smaller edge; might rely more on coverage and blitz schemes.

Translating Sack Potential into Super Bowl Bets

Team & Game Sack Totals

Target Broncos games for higher total sack markets, especially vs Seattle's OL.

In Rams vs Patriots, lean to Rams sack props. In Seahawks vs Patriots, lean to Seahawks sacks.

Championship Sunday Examples:

Broncos sacks Over 2.5 vs Seahawks (-110)
Seahawks sacks Over 2.5 vs Patriots (+120)
Rams sacks Over 2.5 vs Patriots (+130)

QB Props (Sacks Taken, INTs, Fumbles)

Weak OL vs elite DL (Patriots vs Seahawks; Seahawks vs Broncos; Patriots vs Rams) → QB sacks taken Over, potential fumble/INT correlations.

Strong OL vs strong DL (Rams vs Broncos, Broncos vs Seahawks) → More cautious with aggressive sack ladders; standard lines only.

Championship Sunday Examples:

Drake Maye sacks taken Over 2.5 (+110) vs Seahawks
Sam Darnold sacks taken Over 2.5 (+120) vs Broncos
Matthew Stafford sacks taken Under 1.5 (-130) vs Patriots

Field Position and Scoring

High-sack environments create more stalled drives and short fields. Depending on how often sacks lead to punts vs turnovers, this can support either Unders (stalled drives) or team-total Overs off short fields.

Historically, extremely high pressure rates in playoff games tend to suppress explosive passing, nudging toward passing-yard Unders and longest-completion Unders for the more pressured QB.

Best Sack Props for Championship Sunday

Best Sack Prop #1: Sam Darnold Sacks Taken Over 2.5 (+120)

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 3-4 units

Broncos' 68-sack defense (5th-most in NFL history) vs Seahawks' solid-but-not-elite OL creates clear mismatch.

Best Sack Prop #2: Broncos Team Sacks Over 2.5 (-110)

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 3-4 units

Denver's historic pass rush vs any NFC opponent creates sack opportunities, especially vs Seahawks OL.

Best Sack Prop #3: Drake Maye Sacks Taken Over 2.5 (+110)

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Patriots' 30th-ranked pass-block OL vs any elite NFC front (Seahawks, Rams) creates plus-money sack value.

Sack Props and Game Script

Trailing Team Sacks:

When a team trails by 10+ points, they enter obvious passing downs, increasing sack opportunities by 34%.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Broncos trail early vs Seahawks, Stidham sacks taken increases (backup QB + obvious passing = sacks).

Leading Team Sacks:

When a team leads by 10+ points, they rush more, reducing sack opportunities by 28%.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams lead Patriots 17-7 at halftime, Stafford sacks taken decreases (run-heavy script reduces pass attempts).

Final Thoughts

For Super Bowl LX, expect the Broncos' pass rush to be the premier sack engine, the Seahawks and Rams to offer strong but matchup-dependent pressure, and the Patriots to sit in a competent but not dominant tier, with their own OL much more of a liability than their DL.

‍

Share this post: