NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Injury Report and Betting Implications

Injuries represent the most volatile and market-moving variable in NFL playoff betting, where a single player's absence can trigger 3-6.5 point line shifts and create cascading roster effects that sportsbooks and public bettors systematically misprice. For Super Bowl LX, the Conference Championship matchups feature four franchise-altering injuries that have already reshaped the betting landscape. This is your guide to exploiting injury-driven market inefficiencies on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

The Four Franchise-Altering Injuries

1. Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks RB) - Torn ACL, OUT

Market Impact: +450 cents shift on Kenneth Walker III props

Charbonnet suffered a season-ending torn ACL in the Divisional Round vs. 49ers, immediately elevating Kenneth Walker III to 100% backfield snap share. The Seahawks promoted Cam Akers and Velus Jones from practice squad, but Walker is the clear workhorse.

Betting Implications:

Rushing yards prop: Walker's line moved from 72.5 to 82.5 (+450 cents) within 6 hours of injury news. SportsLine projects Walker for 86 yards (A+ value), but Charbonnet's absence suggests 23+ carries (season-high territory).

Anytime TD odds: Walker shortened from +200 to +170 (implied probability: 37.0%). His 12 red-zone carries in last 4 games indicate goal-line role.

First TD scorer: Walker is +475 (betting favorite) due to opening-drive run tendency (Seahawks run 68% of first-quarter plays).

Betting Action: Place 4-5 units on Walker Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115) and 2 units on First TD +475.

2. Bo Nix (Broncos QB) - Broken Ankle, OUT

Market Impact: 6.5-point line swing, +1000 to +1300 Super Bowl odds

Nix fractured his right ankle on the final play of Broncos' OT win vs. Bills, requiring season-ending surgery. Backup Jarrett Stidham (4 career starts) steps in, making him the least-experienced QB in conference championship history.

Betting Implications:

Spread movement: Broncos opened as -1.5 favorites in lookahead lines, moved to +4.5 underdogs (6.5-point swing), now +5.5 at some books. The market overreacted by 2.0 points - historical backup-QB penalty is 3.5-4.0 points, not 6.5.

Super Bowl odds: Broncos shifted from +700 to +1300 (DraftKings). Sharp money bought Broncos at +1000, recognizing Stidham's 2-0 home record as starter.

Passing props: Stidham's passing yards line is 198.5, but public will bet Under due to inexperience. Sharp value is Over - Stidham averaged 237 yards in his two 2025 starts with Raiders.

Betting Action: Place 3-4 units on Broncos +5.5 (+100) and 2 units on Stidham Over 198.5 (+118).

The Super Bowl Running Back Props guide explains how backup QBs increase RB workload and rushing props value.

3. Harold Landry (Patriots OLB) - Knee, OUT

Market Impact: Patriots pass rush efficiency drops 18%

Landry missed all three practices with a knee injury and was ruled out for AFC Championship. He led Patriots with 8.5 sacks and 47 pressures in 2025. Anfernee Jennings (2 sacks) will replace him, but pass rush efficiency drops significantly.

Betting Implications:

Broncos passing props: Stidham's interception prop (+100) becomes more attractive without Landry's pressure (Patriots' sack rate drops from 8.3% to 5.1% when Landry sits).

Patriots team total: New England's defensive EPA/play drops 0.08 points without Landry (from -0.12 to -0.04), moving their team total from 24.5 to 25.5 at sharp books.

Betting Action: Place 2-3 units on Broncos Team Total Over 17.5 (-110) (Landry's absence boosts Denver's offensive ceiling).

4. Rob Havenstein (Rams OT) - Ankle, OUT

Market Impact: Stafford's sack probability increases 34%

Havenstein suffered a high ankle fracture in Divisional Round vs. Bears, ruled out for NFC Championship. He allowed just 3 sacks in 2025 (best among Rams OL). Backup Joe Noteboom (5 sacks allowed in 6 starts) will replace him, downgrading pass protection.

Betting Implications:

Stafford props: Stafford's sack prop (Over 2.5 sacks at -110) becomes stronger play without Havenstein. Seattle's defense averages 3.1 sacks/game (7th in NFL). With Noteboom, Stafford's sack rate jumps from 4.2% to 7.8%.

Rams team total: Los Angeles' offensive efficiency drops 0.11 EPA/play without Havenstein, moving their team total from 23.5 to 22.5 at sharp books.

Betting Action: Place 3-4 units on Seahawks Team Total Over 24.5 (-110) (Havenstein's absence boosts Seattle's defensive efficiency).

Shurzy Tip: Injuries don't just affect one player - they cascade through entire game scripts. Charbonnet out means Walker sees 5+ more carries, which means longer drives, which means fewer possessions, which means Under value. Connect the dots.

Line Movement Analysis: Injury-Driven Adjustments

Broncos-Patriots: 6.5-Point Swing (Largest in Championship History)

Pre-Nix Injury: Broncos -1.5 (lookahead line)
Post-Nix Injury: Patriots -4.5 (current line)
Total Movement: 6.5 points (largest QB-related swing in conference championship history)

Market Overreaction: Historical backup-QB penalty is 3.5-4.0 points, not 6.5. The market overcorrected by 2.0-2.5 points, creating value on Broncos +4.5. Sharp money bought Broncos at +4 before public pushed it to +5.5.

Seahawks-Rams: Charbonnet's Absence = Walker Prop Spike

Pre-Charbonnet Injury: Walker Over 72.5 rushing yards (-115)
Post-Charbonnet Injury: Walker Over 82.5 rushing yards (-115)
Prop Movement: +10 yards (450-cent shift)

Market Underreaction: Walker's projected carries jumped from 18 to 23+, which should have moved the line to 90+ yards. True projection is 94 yards given 100% backfield share. Sharp value remains on Over 82.5.

The Super Bowl Same Game Parlays guide demonstrates how to build injury-correlated parlays for maximum value.

Betting Strategies: Injury-Exploitation Framework

Strategy 1: "Next Man Up" Prop Boost

When a starter is ruled out, backup props are mispriced due to public uncertainty and sportsbook conservatism.

Application:

Zach Charbonnet OUT → Kenneth Walker III Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (projected 94 yards)
Bo Nix OUT → Jarrett Stidham Over 198.5 Passing Yards (projected 237 yards)
Rob Havenstein OUT → Seahawks Team Total Over 24.5 (Stafford sack rate increases 34%)

Historical ROI: Next-man-up props have +8.3% ROI when starter is ruled out 48+ hours before kickoff.

Strategy 2: "Cascading Effect" Correlation Play

One injury creates multiple betting opportunities across props, spreads, and totals.

Broncos Example (Nix OUT):

Primary: Stidham Over 198.5 passing yards
Secondary: Courtland Sutton Over 50.5 receiving yards (top target)
Tertiary: Broncos Team Total Over 17.5 (backup QB forces conservative play-calling)
Quaternary: Patriots-Broncos Under 42.5 (total suppressed by backup QB)

Combined parlay: Stidham Over 198.5 + Sutton Over 50.5 + Broncos +5.5 at +650 odds (DraftKings).

Strategy 3: "Injury Fade" (Betting Against Overreaction)

Market overreacts to high-profile injuries (QB, RB1), creating value on the injured team.

Broncos Example:

Line shifted 6.5 points (Nix injury), but Stidham's 2-0 home record and Denver's 68-sack defense suggest overreaction. Sharp play: Broncos +5.5 (+100) has +EV (true probability: 52.3% vs. implied 50.0%).

Historical ROI: Injury-fade spreads have +4.7% ROI when line moves >5 points due to QB injury.

Super Bowl LX Injury Contingencies

If Broncos Advance (Stidham Starts)

Stidham's Super Bowl MVP odds: +2000 (0.5% implied probability). Fair odds: +5000 (2.0% probability) given backup QB history (only Nick Foles won SB as backup). No value at +2000 - avoid MVP prop.

Stidham's passing yards SB prop: Would open at 235.5 (vs. 223.5 for Championship). Sharp play: Wait for public to bet Under (inexperience bias) and take Over at +120 (true projection: 248 yards at sea level).

If Seahawks Advance (Walker Workhorse)

Walker's SB rushing yards prop: Would open at 85.5 (vs. 82.5 for Championship). Sharp play: Over 85.5 (-110) - Super Bowl defenses are 15% more run-heavy, and Walker would see 25+ carries.

Anytime TD SB odds: Walker would be +150 (favorite) given goal-line role. Sharp play: Over 0.5 TDs at -130 (true probability: 68%).

Shurzy Tip: Injury reports aren't just news - they're pricing errors waiting to happen. The market overreacts to big names and underreacts to depth chart dominoes. Play both sides.

Final Thoughts

The four best injury-driven bets for Championship Sunday are Kenneth Walker III Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115), Broncos +5.5 (+100), Jarrett Stidham Over 198.5 Passing Yards (+118), and Seahawks Team Total Over 24.5 (-110) - all backed by market overreactions and cascading roster effects.

Injuries create chaos. Chaos creates opportunity. Bet accordingly.

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