Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: New England Patriots Anytime Touchdown Candidates

Patriots' Scoring Reality: 14-20 Points Expected

Expert projections have the Patriots scoring 14-17 points in most scenarios, which translates to:

• 1-2 touchdowns (7-14 points)
• 2-3 field goals (6-9 points)
• Total: 13-23 points (realistic range)

This means Patriots anytime TD bets should focus on the 1-3 players most likely to score New England's limited touchdowns, rather than spreading bets across the depth chart.

Shurzy Tip: Patriots will score 1-2 TDs max. That's it. Don't spray 10 different TD bets thinking everyone scores. Stack Hunter Henry and Drake Maye, fade everyone else.

Read more: NFL Playoff Anytime Touchdown Betting Guide How to Bet TD Scorers

Tier 1: High-Probability TD Candidates

1. Hunter Henry, TE (+220 to +240) — BEST VALUE

Odds: +220 at DraftKings, +240 at some books

Hit Rate: 3 TDs in last 4 games (75%), 8 TDs in 17 regular-season games (47%)

Projection: ~35-40% probability to score

Hunter Henry is the Patriots' top red-zone weapon, leading the team with:

• 22 red-zone targets during the regular season (most on team)
• 16 targets inside the 15-yard line, 10 targets inside the 10 (most among Patriots pass-catchers)
• First in targets and second in TDs from inside the 5-yard line

Henry scored a 28-yard touchdown in the Wild Card round against the Chargers and has been Drake Maye's security blanket in high-leverage situations. He ranks first in route rate (70%) and second in target share (17.6%) among Patriots receivers, making him a volume-based TD candidate.

Seattle's defense ranks 8th in red-zone TD percentage allowed (50%), which is vulnerable compared to elite units, but significantly better than the Patriots' 31st-ranked red-zone defense (67.5%). If the Patriots reach the red zone 2-3 times, Henry should see 3-5 targets, and his size (6-5) and veteran savvy make him the highest-probability TD scorer.

Verdict: At +220 to +240, Henry offers the best value among Patriots TD candidates. He's scored in 3 of 4 recent games and is Maye's first read in the red zone. This is a must-bet for Patriots backers.

Play: Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+220 to +240). 1-1.5 units.

Shurzy Tip: Henry has 22 red-zone targets (most on team), scored in 3 of last 4 games, and is Maye's first read inside the 20. At +220 to +240, this is the best Patriots TD bet on the board. Hammer it.

Read more: NFL Playoff Prop Bets Guide Best Player Prop Strategies

2. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (+170 to +225)

Odds: +170 at some early books, +225 at DraftKings

Hit Rate: 0 TDs in 3 playoff games, 6 TDs in last 5 regular-season games

Projection: ~30-35% probability to score

Stevenson is the Patriots' primary goal-line back, taking 43.5% of carries within the 5-yard line during the regular season. He's rushed for 53, 70, and 71 yards in three playoff games on 10, 16, and 25 carries, showcasing his workhorse role.

However, Stevenson has not scored a rushing touchdown in the playoffs despite heavy volume, and the Patriots have scored only two rushing TDs in three playoff games (both by Maye). His TD drought raises red flags, especially at -110 to +170 odds that imply 48-55% probability.

Stevenson's red-zone efficiency during the regular season was strong (6 TDs in last 5 games), but the playoffs have been a different story. Seattle's run defense ranks 1st in the NFL (3.7 YPC, 91.9 YPG), and they haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 28 straight games.

Verdict: At +170 to +225, Stevenson offers modest value but is risky given his playoff TD drought. If the Patriots score 2 rushing TDs, one should be Stevenson's, but the more likely scenario is Maye scoring via scrambles and Stevenson being held out of the end zone.

Lean: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+225). 0.5-1 unit if you believe in volume.

Shurzy Tip: Stevenson has 0 TDs in 3 playoff games despite 25 carries vs Denver. Volume doesn't guarantee TDs when facing the NFL's #1 run defense. Bet cautiously or fade entirely.

3. Drake Maye, QB (+360 to +380) — HIGH-UPSIDE LONGSHOT

Odds: +360 to +380

Hit Rate: 1 TD in 3 playoff games (rushing TD vs. Broncos)

Projection: ~20-25% probability to score

Maye scored the Patriots' only touchdown in the AFC Championship on a 6-yard scramble in the second quarter, and he's shown a willingness to use his legs in the red zone. At +360 to +380, Maye offers significant value as an anytime TD scorer, especially given the likelihood that the Patriots' 1-2 touchdowns may come via Maye's dual-threat ability.

Maye led the NFL in total scrambles during the regular season and was second in scrambles per game behind Patrick Mahomes. He's rushed for 65, 66, and 65 yards in three playoff games, and if the Patriots get inside Seattle's 10-yard line, Maye's athleticism makes him a legitimate scoring option via designed QB runs or improvisation.

Verdict: At +360, Maye is a small-stake, high-upside play that correlates with a Patriots upset or close game. If New England wins, there's a strong chance Maye scores at least one TD either on the ground or through the air.

Play: Drake Maye Anytime TD (+360 to +380). 0.5-1 unit.

Shurzy Tip: Maye scored Patriots' only TD vs Denver on a scramble. At +360, he's pure value for anytime td props. If Patriots score 1-2 TDs, one is probably Maye running it in himself.

Read more: NFL Playoff Player Rankings for Bettors Every QB Ranked

Tier 2: Secondary TD Candidates (Long Odds, Low Probability)

4. TreVeyon Henderson, RB (+250 to +500)

Odds: +250 to +500

Hit Rate: 10 TDs in 17 regular-season games (59%), but just 4 snaps in AFC Championship

Projection: ~15-20% probability to score

Henderson burst onto the scene during the regular season with 758 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs, and 122 receiving yards over the final 11 games, including a 5-TD, 2-game stretch in November where he scored 3 TDs vs. the Jets (becoming the second Patriots rookie ever to score 3 TDs in a game, joining Rob Gronkowski).

Henderson leads the Patriots with:

• 38.2% of carries within the 20-yard line
• 37.5% of carries within the 10-yard line
• 16 goal-line carries (12th in NFL)

However, Henderson played just 4 snaps in the AFC Championship—his lowest since Week 7—after Stevenson dominated the workload with 25 carries. This suggests the Patriots trust Stevenson in playoff games, relegating Henderson to a change-of-pace role.

Verdict: At +250 to +500, Henderson is a lottery ticket that only makes sense if you believe he'll see increased snaps in the Super Bowl. His regular-season TD rate (59%) is elite, but his playoff usage has been minimal. Pass unless the odds reach +600+.

Lean: Pass. Too risky given his 4-snap usage in AFC Championship.

5. Stefon Diggs, WR (+235 to +300)

Odds: +235 to +300

Hit Rate: 2 red-zone TDs in 15 regular-season games

Projection: ~15-20% probability to score

Diggs is the Patriots' leading receiver with 102 targets and 1,013 yards (59.6 YPG), but he's 33 years old, coming off ACL surgery, and has struggled to separate against elite corners. He caught 4-of-6 red-zone targets for 13 yards and 2 TDs during the regular season, showing he's still a viable red-zone option.

However, Diggs has been quiet in the playoffs, and the Patriots' passing attack has been anemic (177.7 passing YPG). Against Seattle's secondary—led by Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, and Julian Love—Diggs will face tight coverage all game.

Verdict: At +235 to +300, Diggs is overpriced given his reduced role and Maye's struggles. If the Patriots score a passing TD, it's more likely to Hunter Henry or a deep shot to Mack Hollins/Kayshon Boutte.

Lean: Pass. Better value exists elsewhere.

6. DeMario Douglas, WR (+550)

Odds: +550

Hit Rate: 1 red-zone TD in 15 regular-season games

Projection: ~10-12% probability to score

Douglas is a slot receiver with 46 targets, 447 yards, and 3 TDs during the regular season, but he's been battling hamstring injuries and saw minimal usage in the AFC Championship. He caught 2-of-4 red-zone targets for 7 yards and 1 TD during the regular season, showing limited red-zone role.

Verdict: At +550, Douglas is a pure lottery ticket with injury concerns and minimal playoff usage. Pass.

7. Kayshon Boutte, WR (+300 to +400)

Odds: +300 to +400 (estimated based on depth chart)

Hit Rate: 1 red-zone TD in 13 regular-season games

Projection: ~10-12% probability to score

Boutte is a deep threat with 46 targets, 551 yards, and 6 TDs during the regular season (48-yard long), showing big-play ability. He caught 1-of-2 red-zone targets for 3 yards and 1 TD, indicating limited red-zone role.

Verdict: At +300 to +400, Boutte is a pure longshot that only makes sense if you believe the Patriots will score via a deep bomb or trick play. Pass unless odds reach +600+.

Shurzy Tip: Don't chase depth chart TD bets. Henderson (4 snaps), Diggs (33 years old, ACL recovery), Douglas (injured), and Boutte (minimal red-zone role) are all lottery tickets. Save your money for Henry and Maye.

Tier 3: Extreme Longshots (Avoid or Tiny Stakes Only)

8. Patriots Defense/Special Teams (+550)

Odds: +550

Hit Rate: 1 defensive TD in playoffs (Marcus Jones pick-six vs. Texans)

Projection: ~8-10% probability to score

The Patriots' defense has been historically dominant in the playoffs, allowing just 26 points in 3 games and forcing 9 turnovers. At +550, a defensive TD offers longshot value given Christian Gonzalez's and Marcus Jones's speed to score on interceptions.

Verdict: At +550, this is a tiny-stake lottery ticket (0.25-0.5 unit) that pays off if the Patriots' defense delivers a game-changing pick-six.

Play: Patriots Defensive TD (+550). 0.25-0.5 unit only.

Read more: NFL Playoff Defense Rankings Best Defensive Units for January

Final Patriots Anytime TD Card

Must-Bet:

• Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+220 to +240) — (1-1.5 units) — Best value, red-zone weapon

Secondary Plays:

• Drake Maye Anytime TD (+360 to +380) — (0.5-1 unit) — High-upside correlation with Patriots upset

Volume-Based Risk:

• Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+225) — (0.5-1 unit) — Workhorse role but TD drought in playoffs

Longshots (Tiny Stakes Only):

• Patriots Defensive TD (+550) — (0.25-0.5 unit)

Avoid:

• TreVeyon Henderson (+500) — Too risky given 4-snap usage in AFC Championship
• Stefon Diggs (+235) — Overpriced given struggles vs. elite defenses
• DeMario Douglas (+550) — Injury concerns, minimal usage
• Kayshon Boutte (+300+) — Pure lottery ticket

The Patriots will score 1-2 touchdowns at most. Focus on Hunter Henry (best value, red-zone role) and Drake Maye (dual-threat upside), and avoid spreading bets across depth players with minimal red-zone usage.

Shurzy Tip: Final card for New England Patriots touchdown bets: Henry 1-1.5 units, Maye 0.5-1 unit, Stevenson 0.5-1 unit, Defensive TD 0.25 unit. Total risk: 3-4 units max. Patriots score 1-2 TDs. Bet accordingly.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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