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Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: New England Patriots Best Bets and Betting Angles

The New England Patriots arrive at Super Bowl LX as underdogs for the first time since 2002, when a young Tom Brady upset the Rams 20-17. This Patriots team bears little resemblance to that dynasty squad, yet here they are, having completed one of the most improbable turnarounds in recent NFL history under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel. These New England Patriots betting picks focus on their historic playoff defense, Maye's rushing edge, and proven ATS performance as underdogs throughout the season.

February 9, 2026

Quick Summary: Patriots Underdog Value

The market opened Seahawks -3.5, then sharp money pushed it to -4.5 to -5. But the Patriots have thrived as underdogs all season, and their defense has been historically dominant in the playoffs.

Best Bet: Patriots +4.5 (-110)

New England finished 4-0 ATS as road underdogs in regular season, covered 2 of 3 playoff games, and their defense allowed only 26 points in three playoff games (8.7 PPG).

Best Props:

Drake Maye Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+220 to +240)

Biggest Edge: Patriots defense on historic run

Only the 2000 Ravens allowed fewer playoff points (16) in a single postseason than New England's 26. If they hold Seattle to 20 or fewer, Patriots only need 17-20 to cover.

Shurzy Tip: Super Bowl underdogs are 17-7 ATS since 2001, including five straight covers. Getting +4.5 to +5 with an elite defense is value, even if Seattle's the better team.

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The Contrarian Case: Why Patriots +4.5 Has Value

The betting market moved fast toward Seattle, but the Patriots have been in this position all season and they've dominated as underdogs.

Patriots ATS Dominance:

New England finished the regular season 13-6-1 ATS:

4-0 ATS as road underdogs
4-2 straight-up when getting points
4-2 ATS overall as underdogs

In the playoffs, they covered 2 of 3:

16-3 over Chargers (covered as favorite)
28-16 over Texans (covered as favorite)
10-7 over Broncos (fell just short of covering -4.5)

Historical Super Bowl Underdog Trends:

Since 2001, underdogs are 17-7 ATS in the Super Bowl:

Five straight covers
Four outright wins in last five games
Underdogs covered 11 of last 14 Super Bowls

Recent winners include Rams over Bengals (LVI), Chiefs over Eagles (LVII), and Chiefs over 49ers (LIV).

Shurzy Tip: When a team goes 4-0 ATS as road underdogs all season, then gets +4.5 in the Super Bowl with an elite defense, you take the points. The market might be right that Seattle's better, but five points is a lot.

Defense Wins Championships: Patriots Historic Run

The Patriots' defense has been historically dominant in the playoffs, and it's the foundation of every New England Patriots best bets angle.

Playoff Defensive Dominance:

The numbers are absurd:

26 points allowed across three games (8.7 PPG average)
Only the legendary 2000 Ravens allowed fewer (16 points in three playoff games)
Held opponents to 0.72 points per drive
Limited RBs to 61 yards on 30 carries with zero TDs (2.03 YPC)

Defensive Scheme:

Against Denver in the AFC Championship:

Deployed man coverage on 50% of dropbacks
Blitzed over 40% of the time
Held Stidham to 2.5 yards per attempt against the blitz
Milton Williams and Christian Barmore generated elite interior pressure

The Darnold Factor:

If the Patriots can force Sam Darnold into 2-3 turnovers, they have a legitimate path to victory. Darnold had 14 interceptions and 20 total turnovers during the regular season.

He threw zero picks in the NFC Championship, but he also threw six INTs in two prior games against the Rams this season before finally breaking through.

Mike Vrabel's Defensive DNA:

Vrabel has already made NFL history by leading the Patriots to the Super Bowl in his first season after consecutive 4-13 campaigns. As a player, he was part of three Patriots Super Bowl championships.

His defensive acumen has been on full display this postseason, systematically dismantling the Chargers (fifth in yards per game), Texans, and Broncos (fifth in passer rating allowed).

Shurzy Tip: The Patriots have beaten three straight top-five defenses in the playoffs. Their defense is on a historic tear. If they hold Seattle to 20 or fewer (realistic given Seahawks scored 17 in regulation against Rams before pulling away late), Patriots only need 17-20 to win or cover.

Best Bets: New England Patriots Betting Picks

These are the core plays for Patriots backers who believe in elite defense and underdog value.

Patriots +4.5 (-110) — CORE PLAY

This is the foundation of any Patriots betting card.

Why Patriots Cover:

Elite defense allowing 8.7 PPG in playoffs
4-0 ATS as road underdogs in regular season
Historical Super Bowl underdog success (17-7 ATS since 2001)
Five points is significant cushion in defensive game

The Math:

If Patriots hold Seattle to 20 points (realistic), they only need 16 to cover. If Seattle scores 24, Patriots need 20 to cover. The defense gives them margin for error.

Play: Patriots +4.5 (-110). Playable to +4. Consider Patriots ML +185 to +195 (0.5-1 unit sprinkle).

Drake Maye Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Maye has been the Patriots' most consistent offense in the playoffs.

Recent Performance:

Rushed for 65, 66, and 65 yards in three straight playoff games
Had double-digit rushing yards in every game this season except one
Averaged 10 carries per playoff game
His 28-yard run on third-and-nine vs Denver swung momentum

Why He Goes Over:

If New England can't move the ball through the air (he threw 86 yards vs Denver), they'll lean heavily on his legs via designed runs and scrambles. Seattle ranked eighth in rushing EPA allowed and have been vulnerable to mobile QBs who create outside the pocket.

Play: Maye Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113). Playable to 35.5.

Shurzy Tip: Maye's legs are the Patriots' most reliable offense. He's hit 60+ rushing yards in three straight playoff games. Over 33.5 is a gift given his usage and Seattle's scheme.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Stevenson has been the workhorse in the playoffs.

Playoff Performance:

53 yards on 10 carries vs Chargers
70 yards on 16 carries vs Texans
71 yards on 25 carries vs Broncos
Averaged 61.5 rushing yards per playoff game
Gone Over this line in 2 of 3 postseason games

Volume Play:

Stevenson significantly out-touched rookie TreVeyon Henderson in the AFC Championship (25 carries vs 3 touches). He's likely to lead the backfield again with 15+ carries.

While Seattle ranks first against the run (3.7 YPC allowed, 91.9 rushing YPG), Stevenson's volume alone should push him over 56.5 yards.

Play: Stevenson Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110).

Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+220 to +240)

Henry is the Patriots' go-to red-zone weapon.

Red Zone Usage:

Led team with 22 red-zone targets during regular season
Scored seven TDs in regular season
First in route rate (70%) among Patriots pass-catchers
Second in target share (17.6%)

Recent Form:

Scored in 3 of last 4 games dating back to regular season. Found end zone in Wild Card round with 28-yard TD catch vs Chargers.

At +220 to +240, he offers solid value as anytime TD scorer, especially given Patriots will need at least one TD in red zone to stay competitive. Seattle's defense allowed 54.2% red-zone conversion rate during regular season.

Play: Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+220). Available at +240 at some books.

Correlated Same-Game Parlay for Patriots Backers

For those looking to build correlated parlay around Patriots upset or close game, these New England Patriots best bets stack well together.

Patriots Close Game Parlay:

Patriots +4.5 (core bet)
Under 46.5 (defensive game)
Drake Maye Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (offense runs through Maye's legs)
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (Patriots lean on run)

This parlay pays approximately +800 to +1000 depending on book and reflects script where Patriots keep it close via defense, clock control, and Maye's rushing.

Shurzy Tip: Don't build massive 10-leg parlays. This 4-leg correlated parlay tells one coherent story: Patriots defense keeps it close, offense grinds clock with Maye and Stevenson rushing. Simple, correlated, value.

Why Patriots Can Win (Or Cover) This Game

The path to victory or covering the spread runs through the Patriots' elite defense and clock control.

Defensive Dominance:

The Patriots rank fifth in pass blocking according to Pro Football Focus. While Maye has been sacked 15 times in three playoff games, the offensive line has held up in critical situations.

If they can give Maye clean pockets on critical third downs, the Patriots have a chance to extend drives and keep Seattle's offense off the field. Time of possession will be critical.

Darnold's Turnover Risk:

Darnold had 14 INTs and 20 total turnovers during regular season. If Patriots force 2-3 turnovers, they can win with 17-20 points.

Mike Vrabel's Edge:

Vrabel's defensive acumen and Super Bowl DNA (three rings as player) gives Patriots legitimate edge in game-planning and adjustments. He's already out-coached three elite defensive coordinators this postseason.

Historical Precedent:

Defense-minded underdogs have thrived in Super Bowl. Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVI as underdogs with dominant defense. Giants beat undefeated Patriots as underdogs in XLII with elite defensive line play.

Shurzy Tip: You don't need Patriots to win outright to cash +4.5. You just need them to keep it close. Their defense gives them the floor to do exactly that.

Final Verdict: Patriots as Live Underdogs

The Patriots are underdogs for good reason. Seattle is the better team with better offense, better defense, and better QB play in the playoffs.

But New England has thrived in this role all season, going 4-0 ATS as road underdogs and 4-2 overall as underdogs. Their defense is on a historic run (only 2000 Ravens allowed fewer playoff points), and Vrabel's coaching gives them legitimate edge in game-planning.

These New England Patriots betting picks don't require an outright upset. They just require a close, competitive game decided in the final minutes, which is exactly what this defense delivers.

The New England Patriots best bets stack around their elite defense (Patriots +4.5), Maye's dual-threat ability (Over 33.5 rushing yards), Stevenson's volume (Over 56.5 rushing yards), and Henry's red-zone role (Anytime TD +220).

At +4.5 to +5, they're worth backing. The Seahawks are the rightful favorites, but the Patriots have been defying expectations all postseason.

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