NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: New England Patriots Offense Deep Dive and Scoring Paths

The Patriots' offense enters Super Bowl LX as one of the most anemic units in playoff history, averaging just 18.0 points per game (fourth-fewest by any team entering a Super Bowl and fewest since 1979 Rams). New England has scored one or fewer touchdowns in two of three playoff games, managing only 10 points against Denver in the AFC Championship. Against Seattle's elite defense (ranked first in scoring at 17.2 PPG and first in rushing success rate at 34%), the Patriots face their toughest challenge yet. Understanding New England's limited scoring paths and offensive identity is critical for identifying value in team totals, player props, and game scripts.

February 9, 2026

Offensive Identity: Maye's Legs Plus Clock Control

The Patriots' offensive philosophy is simple and survival-based.

The Formula:

Survive with Drake Maye's dual-threat ability, control the clock with Rhamondre Stevenson, and avoid turnovers. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels (back in New England for his third stint) has tailored the playbook around Maye's athleticism while mitigating his turnover risks.

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Regular Season vs Playoffs:

During regular season, Patriots ranked 2nd in scoring (28.8 PPG) and 6th in rushing yards per game (128.9 YPG), with Maye contributing 450 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs.

But the playoffs have exposed offensive limitations:

Maye's completion percentage cratered from 72% to 55.8%
Patriots averaged just 177.7 passing yards per game
Scored one or fewer TDs in 2 of 3 playoff games

Shurzy Tip: Patriots went from 28.8 PPG in regular season to 18.0 PPG in playoffs. That's not a slump, that's reality against elite defenses. Bet the Under on anything Patriots offense related.

Drake Maye: Dual-Threat QB with Playoff Struggles

Maye is an MVP finalist after spectacular regular season (4th in passing yards, 3rd in passing TDs), but his playoff performances have been defined by his legs, not his arm.

Rushing: The Patriots' Most Reliable Offense

Maye has rushed for 65, 66, and 65 yards in three playoff games.

Historic Production:

First player in Patriots playoff history to record 250+ passing yards and 50+ rushing yards in postseason game (vs Chargers)
Just fourth player in NFL history to achieve that feat
Joins Daunte Culpepper (2000), Lamar Jackson (2019), Josh Allen (2019)

Game-Changing Plays vs Denver:

Maye's rushing was the difference:

Scored Patriots' only TD on 6-yard scramble in Q2
7-yard bootleg run on 3rd-and-5 with under 2 minutes sealed win
28-yard scramble on 3rd-and-9 in Q3 set up game-winning FG

Volume and Usage:

Maye has averaged 10 carries per playoff game. His dual-threat ability gives Patriots a dimension nearly impossible to fully neutralize.

If Seattle's defense focuses on containing his scrambling, Maye can exploit passing windows. If they commit to stopping the pass, he'll use his legs.

Passing: Struggles Against Elite Defenses

Maye's playoff passing numbers tell a different story:

Wild Card vs Chargers:

268 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
17-of-29, 58.6% completion

Divisional vs Texans:

179 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
16-of-28, 57.1% completion

AFC Championship vs Broncos:

86 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
10-of-21, 47.6% completion

The Collapse:

Completion rate dropped from 72% in regular season to 55.8% in playoffs. He's been sacked 15 times in 3 games (5 per game average).

Against Seattle's defense (ranks 5th against pass, pressures QBs on 38.9% of dropbacks), Maye faces another uphill battle.

Limited Weapons:

Patriots' passing attack lacks explosive weapons:

Stefon Diggs leads team: 102 targets, 1,013 yards (59.6 YPG)
But he's 33 years old, coming off ACL surgery
Hunter Henry (87 targets, 768 yards) is security blanket, especially in red zone
No true No. 1 receiver

Shurzy Tip: Maye went from 72% completion in regular season to 55.8% in playoffs. Against elite defenses, his arm doesn't work. His legs do. Bet Maye rushing props, fade Maye passing props.

Offensive Line: Top-10 Pass Protection, Below-Average Run Blocking

The Patriots' offensive line has been one of the season's biggest surprises.

The Transformation:

Went from worst in league in 2024 to near top-10 in 2025. According to Pro Football Focus, New England ranks 5th in pass blocking win rate and 16th in run blocking win rate.

Stability and Health:

Patriots maintained their starting five in 10 of 11 games before playoffs:

LT Vederian Lowe
LG Jared Wilson
C Garrett Bradbury
RG Layden Robinson
RT Mike Onwenu

Compare to 10 different combinations in 2024.

Playoff Vulnerabilities:

However, playoffs have exposed vulnerabilities:

Maye sacked 15 times in 3 games
Run blocking inconsistent (128.9 YPG regular season, just 71.3 YPG in playoffs)

Matchup vs Seattle:

Against Seattle's interior dominance (Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II rank 2nd in combined pressures), Patriots' offensive line will be tested hard.

Rushing Attack: Stevenson Plus Clock Control

The Patriots' rushing attack is built around Rhamondre Stevenson.

Playoff Volume:

Stevenson carried 15-25 times in each playoff game:

10 carries vs Chargers (53 yards)
16 carries vs Texans (70 yards)
25 carries vs Broncos (71 yards)
Playoff average: 61.5 YPG

Clock Control Strategy:

Stevenson's volume is New England's best bet for clock control and keeping Seattle's offense off field.

If Patriots can sustain long, methodical drives (like their 16-play, 9.5-minute FG drive in AFC Championship), they can limit Seattle's possessions and keep game close.

TreVeyon Henderson (Backup):

Second-round rookie relegated to backup role in playoffs (9, 12, 3 carries). Offers home-run threat with speed (10 TDs during regular season, including several long runs).

If Patriots fall behind, Henderson may see increased snaps in passing situations.

Shurzy Tip: Stevenson had 25 carries vs Denver for 71 yards. That's 2.84 YPC (bad efficiency), but Patriots don't care. They're grinding clock, keeping Seattle's offense off field. Bet Stevenson volume Overs, not efficiency.

Receiving Corps: No True No. 1 Weapon

The Patriots' receiving corps is below-average, lacking a dominant No. 1 option.

Stefon Diggs:

102 targets, 1,013 yards, 4 TDs (59.6 YPG)
33 years old, coming off ACL surgery
Shell of former self, struggles to separate vs elite corners

Hunter Henry:

87 targets, 768 yards, 7 TDs (45.2 YPG)
Most reliable target, especially in red zone
22 red-zone targets (1st on team)

Mack Hollins:

65 targets, 550 yards, 2 TDs (36.7 YPG)
Downfield threat with size and speed
Inconsistent

DeMario Douglas:

46 targets, 447 yards, 3 TDs (26.3 YPG)
Slot receiver with speed (4.44)
Limited by size (5-8, 192 pounds)
Battling hamstring injuries

Kayshon Boutte:

46 targets, 551 yards, 6 TDs (39.4 YPG)
Deep threat with big-play ability (48-yard long)
Just 14 games played

Matchup vs Seattle:

Against Seattle's secondary (led by Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, Julian Love), Patriots will struggle to win one-on-one matchups.

If Christian Gonzalez shadows JSN and Seattle's defense eliminates Diggs and Henry with double teams, Maye will have nowhere to throw.

Red Zone Offense: Below-Average Efficiency

The Patriots ranked 22nd in red zone TD conversion rate during regular season (55.07%).

Playoff Struggles:

They've struggled to finish drives in playoffs. Red-zone offense is hampered by:

4 red-zone turnovers during regular season (10% turnover rate, worst in NFL)
Limited playmakers (Hunter Henry is primary red-zone threat)
Predictable play-calling (lean heavily on Stevenson between tackles, Maye bootlegs/scrambles)

Matchup vs Seattle:

Seattle's red-zone defense held Rams to 4-for-5 in NFC Championship but is generally stout (50% red-zone TD conversion allowed, 8th in NFL).

Patriots will need to be efficient on their limited trips inside the 20.

Shurzy Tip: Patriots ranked 22nd in red-zone TD conversion (55.07%). Seattle allows 50% (8th). When bad red-zone offense meets good red-zone defense, bet field goals. Nick Folk Over points props have value.

Scoring Paths for Patriots vs Seahawks

Given Patriots' offensive limitations, their most realistic scoring paths are limited and predictable.

Path 1: Maye Scrambling Plus Field Goals (10-13 Points)

Patriots can score 10-13 points by leaning on Maye's rushing ability to create field position and kicking multiple FGs.

The Process:

Nick Folk has been reliable all season
Patriots scored via FG in all 3 playoff games
If New England sustains 2-3 long drives that stall in Seattle territory (30-40 yard line)
Folk converts 3-4 FGs for 9-12 points
Add Maye rushing TD or defensive/special teams score
Patriots reach 16-19 points

Betting Angle: Patriots team total Under 20.5 (-110). Even in competitive game, 17-20 points is realistic ceiling.

Path 2: Clock Control Plus One Explosive Play (14-17 Points)

Patriots can control clock with Rhamondre Stevenson's rushing (20+ carries) and methodical drives, keeping Seattle's offense off field.

The Formula:

Sustain 1-2 drives of 10+ plays
Score via Maye rushing TD or Hunter Henry red-zone catch
Reach 14-17 points total

Recent Success:

Patriots' longest playoff drive was 16-play, 9.5-minute FG march in AFC Championship. Showcased ability to grind out first downs.

If they replicate that vs Seattle while adding one explosive play (Maye 30+ yard scramble, Diggs deep ball), they stay competitive.

Betting Angle: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110) + Drake Maye Over 33.5 rushing yards (-113) as correlated pair.

Path 3: Turnover Luck Plus Short Fields (20-24 Points)

Patriots' only path to 20+ points is forcing 2-3 Seattle turnovers and scoring off short fields.

The Reality:

If defense creates pick-six or fumble recovery inside Seattle territory, Patriots can score quickly without needing long, sustained drives.

Least Likely Path:

Given Sam Darnold's clean playoff performances (zero INTs in last 2 games) and Seattle's ball security, this is least likely path.

However, if Patriots' defense delivers its best game and forces Darnold into 2-3 mistakes, New England could sneak into low 20s.

Betting Angle: Patriots moneyline (+185 to +195) as small sprinkle only if you believe in turnover variance and defensive dominance.

Shurzy Tip: Patriots have 3 realistic scoring paths: 10-13 points (FGs only), 14-17 points (clock control + 1 TD), or 20-24 points (turnover luck). Bet Under 20.5 because Path 3 requires miracles.

Final Verdict: Limited Offense, Unlikely to Reach 21 Plus

The Patriots' offense is built to survive, not thrive. They rank last among Super Bowl teams in playoff PPG (18.0) and scored one or fewer TDs in 2 of 3 games.

Against Seattle's Elite Defense:

Patriots will need historic performance from Maye's legs and perfect execution in red zone to reach 20+ points.

Most Realistic Outcome:

14-17 points, with Patriots relying on: