NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: New England Patriots Player Props Breakdown

The Patriots' playoff run has been defined by elite defense and Drake Maye heroics, but their offensive statistics reveal serious vulnerabilities that create both value and land mines in the prop betting markets. New England has averaged just 18 points per game in the playoffs (lowest by any Super Bowl team since 1979), and Maye's passing numbers have cratered against elite defenses. He's completing only 55.8% of passes (down from 72% regular season) and averaging 177.7 passing yards per game. Against Seattle's top-ranked scoring defense (17.2 PPG allowed, first in NFL), these New England Patriots player props require careful navigation between Maye's dual-threat ability and the reality of a struggling offensive attack. The key is finding volume-based plays (Maye rushing, Stevenson carries) while avoiding touchdown props that require New England to score 3+ TDs.

February 9, 2026

Drake Maye Props: The Engine of the Patriots Offense

Maye is the entire Patriots offense right now. His legs have been more reliable than his arm, creating clear prop value.

Drake Maye Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113) — BEST BET

This is the single best Patriots prop on the board.

Recent Performance:

Rushed for 65, 66, and 65 yards in three playoff games
Had double-digit rushing yards in every game this season except one
Averaged 10 carries per playoff game
His 28-yard run on third-and-nine vs Denver was the momentum play

Why He Goes Over:

Maye's rushing has been the Patriots' most reliable offense:

Accounted for their only TD against Denver (7-yard scramble)
Three of their five longest plays in AFC Championship were Maye scrambles
If Patriots can't move ball through air (86 yards vs Denver), they lean on his legs

Matchup Advantage:

Seattle's defense is elite against the run (3.7 YPC allowed, first in NFL), but they ranked eighth in rushing EPA allowed and have been vulnerable to mobile QBs who create outside the pocket.

At 33.5 yards, this line is a gift. Maye has hit 65+ in all three playoff games.

Play: Maye Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113). Playable to 36.5.

Shurzy Tip: Maye rushed for 65, 66, and 65 yards in three straight playoff games. Over 33.5 is basically free money. He hits that number even if Patriots get blown out and he only scrambles 4-5 times.

Drake Maye Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Maye's passing yards prop sits at 221.5, roughly 37 yards below his regular-season average.

Playoff Passing Breakdown:

Wild Card vs Chargers: 268 yards (weak pass defense)
Divisional vs Texans: 179 yards (elite defense)
AFC Championship vs Broncos: 86 yards (season low, in snow)

Why He Stays Under:

Seattle's defense ranks first in scoring (17.2 PPG), fifth against the pass:

Lowest third-down conversion rate allowed (32.1%)
Elite secondary led by Devon Witherspoon
Heavy man coverage to take away Maye's first reads

Expert projections have Maye Under 225.5 passing yards as consensus play. Covers' computer model projects 223.5 yards (a push), but that's optimistic given he failed to hit 200 yards in two of three playoff games.

If Patriots fall behind early, Maye could sneak over 221.5. But more likely script is low-scoring defensive game where New England leans heavily on Maye's legs and short, safe throws.

Play: Maye Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-110). Strong play to 225.5.

Drake Maye Anytime TD (+360 to +380) — STRONG VALUE

Maye scored the Patriots' only TD in AFC Championship on seven-yard scramble.

Why This Has Value:

Led NFL in total scrambles during regular season
Second in scrambles per game behind Mahomes
If Patriots get inside Seattle's 10-yard line, he's legitimate scoring option via designed QB runs or improvisation

At +360 to +380, Maye offers significant value as anytime TD scorer, especially if Patriots struggle to move ball consistently through air.

This is small-stake, high-upside play that correlates with Patriots upset or close game.

Play: Maye Anytime TD (+360 to +380). Small stake (0.5-1 unit).

Rhamondre Stevenson Props: Volume-Dependent Upside

Stevenson has been the workhorse in the playoffs, but Seattle's run defense is historically elite.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110) — SOLID PLAY

Stevenson's playoff performance has been consistent.

Recent Numbers:

53 yards on 10 carries vs Chargers
70 yards on 16 carries vs Texans
71 yards on 25 carries vs Broncos
Averaged 61.5 rushing yards per playoff game
Gone Over 56.5 yards in 2 of 3 postseason games

Volume Advantage:

Stevenson significantly out-touched rookie TreVeyon Henderson in AFC Championship (25 carries vs 3 touches). He's likely to lead backfield again with 15+ carries.

The Challenge:

Seattle's defense ranks first against the run:

3.7 YPC allowed
91.9 rushing yards per game allowed
Haven't allowed 100-yard rusher in 28 straight games

Why He Still Goes Over:

Patriots ranked 25th in rushing EPA on season but third since Week 10, showing significant improvement. Stevenson's volume alone (15+ carries likely) should push him over 56.5 yards.

The Sporting News highlights Stevenson's Over as one of their "best early Seahawks vs Patriots player prop bets," noting his consistent volume and Patriots' need to control clock.

Play: Stevenson Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110). Playable to 59.5.

Shurzy Tip: Stevenson had 25 carries vs Denver. Even at 3.5 YPC (bad efficiency), that's 87.5 yards. He only needs 4 YPC on 15 carries to hit Over 56.5. Volume is king.

Hunter Henry Props: Red-Zone Weapon

Henry is the Patriots' go-to red-zone target, and Seattle's defense is vulnerable inside the 20.

Hunter Henry Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110) — SOLID PLAY

Henry leads the team in red-zone usage and has been Maye's security blanket.

Key Stats:

22 red-zone targets during regular season (team leader)
Scored 7 TDs in regular season
First in route rate (70%) among Patriots pass-catchers
Second in target share (17.6%)

Recent Performance:

Caught 4 receptions for 52 yards vs Chargers. Covers' computer model projects Henry at 41.6 receiving yards (essentially a push).

Matchup Advantage:

Several tight ends have put up solid numbers against Seattle's defense:

Luke Musgrave: 52 yards
Brock Bowers: 46 yards
Zach Ertz: 106 yards

Seattle's defense is vulnerable in red zone (54.2% TD conversion rate allowed during regular season). Henry's size (6-5) and reliability make him plus-money target in this matchup.

If Maye throws 25-30 passes, Henry should see 5-7 targets and clear 41.5 yards.

Play: Henry Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110).

Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+220 to +240) — STRONG VALUE

Henry has scored in 3 of last 4 games dating back to regular season.

Red-Zone Dominance:

Found end zone in Wild Card round with 28-yard TD catch vs Chargers
10 targets against the blitz
11 first-half red-zone targets

Why This Has Value:

At +220 to +240, he offers solid value as anytime TD scorer, especially given Patriots will need at least one TD in red zone to stay competitive.

Seattle's defense allowed 54.2% red-zone conversion rate during regular season. Henry's size (6-5) and reliability make him plus-money target worth backing.

Multiple experts highlight Henry as top anytime TD play, with Action Network giving him +210 grade and noting Seattle has allowed disproportionate number of TDs to tight ends this season.

Play: Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+220 to +240). Strong value.

Shurzy Tip: Henry at +220 to score is the best TD value on Patriots side. He's 6-5, leads team in red-zone targets, and Seattle allowed 54.2% red-zone TD rate. If Patriots score 2 TDs, one is probably Henry.

Props to Avoid

Not every prop is worth betting. These super bowl props New England Patriots should be skipped entirely.

Drake Maye Under 1.5 Passing TDs

Juice too high at -158 to -170. Maye has thrown 1.67 passing TDs per playoff game, but heavy juice makes this unplayable.

Pass: Not worth the juice.

Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+220 to +240)

Stevenson has not scored rushing TD in playoffs despite heavy volume. Patriots have scored only 2 rushing TDs in 3 playoff games (both by Maye).

Better value exists with Hunter Henry and Maye rushing TD.

Pass: Better options available.

TreVeyon Henderson Props

Henderson's minimal role (3-12 carries per game) makes all his props too risky. He's rushed for 15, 12, and 10 yards in three playoff games with longest gain of 6 yards.

His rushing attempts line is 5.5, suggesting backup role only.

Pass: Minimal volume, too risky.

DeMario Douglas Props

Douglas has been non-factor in playoffs. His receiving yards line sits at just 12.5, reflecting minimal role.

Against Denver, he was active but saw minimal snaps due to hamstring issues. Too much injury risk and too little volume.

Pass: Very low-value play.

Final Patriots Player Props Card

Here's your complete betting card for New England Patriots player props based on volume, value, and realistic scoring expectations.

Core Plays (1-2 units each):

Drake Maye Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113) — BEST BET
Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+220 to +240) — STRONG VALUE
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110) — SOLID PLAY

Secondary Plays (0.5-1 unit each):

Drake Maye Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Hunter Henry Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Drake Maye Anytime TD (+360 to +380)

Avoid Entirely:

Drake Maye Under 1.5 Passing TDs (juice too high)
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (no playoff TDs)
TreVeyon Henderson props (minimal volume)
DeMario Douglas props (injury concerns, low volume)

Shurzy Tip: The Patriots' offense revolves entirely around Drake Maye's legs and Hunter Henry's red-zone role. With New England likely to score 14-20 points at most, focus on volume-based props (Maye rushing, Stevenson rushing, Henry targets) and avoid TD props that require Patriots to score 3+ TDs.

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