NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Picks and Predictions

Super Bowl LX is here, and it's not the shootout everyone wanted. The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are about to turn Levi's Stadium into a defensive clinic on February 8, 2026. Seattle's rolling in as 4.5 to 5-point favorites with the total sitting at 46.5, and sharp money has already spoken loud and clear. Let's break down why these super bowl picks favor Seattle, what the super bowl predictions tell us, and where the real nfl betting picks value hides.

February 9, 2026

Quick Summary: What You Need to Know

Here's everything you need in 30 seconds before diving into the full breakdown.

Best Bet: Seahawks -4.5 (-110)

Sharp money moved this from -3.5 to -5 overnight. Seattle's got the #1 scoring defense allowing 17.2 PPG, and the Patriots offense has averaged a pathetic 18 PPG in the playoffs.

Best Total: Under 46.5 (-110)

Both defenses are elite. Patriots scored 20+ only once in three playoff games. Seattle held opponents to 17.2 PPG all season.

Best MVP: Sam Darnold (+250)

If Seattle wins, Darnold's the overwhelming favorite with zero playoff picks and four TDs.

Best Props:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Drake Maye Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
JSN Anytime TD (+106)

Biggest Mistake: Betting Patriots because of their defense

Yeah, they've allowed 26 points in three playoff games, but they haven't faced an offense like Seattle's yet. The Seahawks score 28.4 PPG and just put up 31 on the Rams.

Shurzy Tip: When sharp money moves a Super Bowl line 1.5 points in 24 hours, you follow it. The smart money landed on Seahawks -4.5. Don't overthink it.

The Betting Market: Where the Sharp Money Went

The line movement tells the whole story. Follow the smart money and you'll find the edge.

The opening line was Seahawks -3.5. Within hours, sharp action pushed it to -4.5, briefly touching -5 at some books before settling around -4.5 to -5.

Big Money Moves:

Sportsbooks reported massive action immediately:

$36,000 wager on Seattle -4.5
$55,000 wager on Patriots +4.5
Both bets placed within seconds of line posting

That's professionals finding their spots fast.

What the Movement Means:

But here's the key: the line kept moving toward Seattle. That tells you everything.

Sharp money found value on the Seahawks and pushed the number up a full point from the lookahead lines. The total opened at 46.5 and hasn't budged much, sitting right at -110 both ways.

That's the market saying "we nailed this number."

Expected Betting Patterns:

Books are expecting the usual Super Bowl script:

Public hammers the favorite and the Over
A chunk of casual money bets Patriots moneyline for the upset story
If it lands between 1-4 points, the house wins big

Current Odds:

Spread: Patriots +4.5 (-110) | Seahawks -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Patriots +185 to +195 | Seahawks -225 to -230
Total: 46.5 points (Over/Under -110)

Shurzy Tip: Line movement from -3.5 to -5 in hours isn't public bias. That's sharps with models and info betting into Seattle hard. When the smart money moves a line that fast, you listen.

Patriots Offense vs. Seahawks Defense: Mismatch Alert

This is where the game gets decided. The Patriots offense is broken, and Seattle's defense is built to break it further.

Patriots Offensive Collapse:

The Patriots averaged 28.8 PPG in the regular season with 0.12 EPA per play. Elite numbers.

In the playoffs? They're scoring 18 PPG, the lowest by any Super Bowl team since the 1979 Rams. That's brutal.

Drake Maye's Playoff Struggles:

Maye's passing has completely fallen apart:

Completion rate: 55.8% (down from 72% regular season)
Passing yards per game: 177.7 YPG
Season-low: 86 yards against Denver in AFC Championship
Sacks taken: 15 in three games (5 per game average)

If that continues, he's on pace to set the all-time single-postseason sack record.

Maye's Saving Grace:

But Maye's legs have kept them alive:

Rushed for 65, 66, and 65 yards in three straight playoff games
Scored the only Patriots TD against Denver on a gutsy scramble
His 28-yard run set up the game-winning field goal
His seven-yard bootleg on third-and-five sealed it with under two minutes left

His rushing is the Patriots' most reliable source of offense right now.

Seattle's Defensive Dominance:

Seattle's defense is the worst possible matchup for New England:

Finished first in scoring defense at 17.2 PPG
Fifth against the pass
First against the run
Front seven is dominant with Leonard Williams, Ernest Jones, and Devon Witherspoon

Elite Run Defense:

The Seahawks allow just 34% success rate on designed runs, the lowest in the NFL. They've allowed -34 first downs over expectation on rushing plays, by far the best in the league.

If they neutralize the Patriots ground game (128.9 rushing yards per game, sixth in NFL) and contain Maye's scrambling, New England struggles to hit 20 points.

Shurzy Tip: Maye's been sacked five times per game in the playoffs. Seattle's front seven is going to tee off on him. Patriots offense hitting 20 points would be a minor miracle against this defense.

Seahawks Offense vs. Patriots Defense: Can Anyone Score?

The Patriots defense has been historically great in the playoffs, but they haven't faced anything like Seattle's balanced attack.

Patriots Historic Playoff Defense:

The Patriots defense has been absolutely insane in the playoffs:

Allowed 26 points total across three games (8.7 PPG average)
Only the legendary 2000 Ravens allowed fewer points in a single postseason (16 total)
Held opposing running backs to 61 rushing yards on 30 carries with zero TDs
That's 2.03 yards per carry, which is historic

Defensive Scheme:

They deployed man coverage on 50% of dropbacks against Denver:

Blitzed over 40% of the time
Held Jarrett Stidham to 2.5 yards per attempt against the blitz
Christian Gonzalez has been lockdown in the secondary

Seattle's Balanced Attack:

But Seattle's offense is a completely different animal than Houston, LA Chargers, or Denver.

The Seahawks ranked third in scoring at 28.4 PPG during the regular season.

Sam Darnold's Playoff Excellence:

Darnold has been clinical in the playoffs:

69.8% completion rate
Four TDs, zero interceptions
Torched the Rams for 346 yards and three TDs in the NFC Championship
Exorcised his demons after throwing six INTs in two regular-season meetings with LA

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The X-Factor:

JSN led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards and accounted for 46.2% of Seattle's air yards:

Destroyed the Rams for 10 catches, 153 yards, and a TD in the title game
His Super Bowl receiving yards prop opened at 94.5, more than double any other player
Scored in both playoff games

Kenneth Walker III's Workload:

Walker has rushed for 364 yards over Seattle's last four games with three games of 97-plus yards. He's carrying the full load without Zach Charbonnet (torn ACL).

Red Zone Efficiency:

Seattle went 4-for-5 in the red zone against a Rams defense that ranked third in red-zone defense. Darnold threw all three TDs inside the 20.

That's a problem for New England, which allowed a 67.5% red-zone conversion rate during the regular season, worst among playoff teams.

Shurzy Tip: Patriots haven't faced an offense like Seattle's yet. The Seahawks score 28.4 PPG and just hung 31 on the Rams' elite defense. New England's playoff run defense is historic, but Seattle's passing attack is the real threat here.

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Best Bets: Where the Value Is

These are the plays that make sense based on matchup, market movement, and value. Stack your card around these core positions.

Seahawks -4.5 (-110) — MAX PLAY

Sharp money moved this from -3.5 to -5 within hours. That's not an accident.

Why Seattle Covers:

Better offense (28.4 PPG vs 18 PPG Patriots playoff average)
Better defense (#1 scoring defense at 17.2 PPG allowed)
Better coaching (Mike Macdonald's first Super Bowl as HC but elite defensive mind)
Better QB play (Darnold zero playoff picks vs Maye's struggles)

Patriots' Achilles Heel:

Maye's been under siege all playoffs with 15 sacks in three games. Seattle's front seven is going to make life miserable.

Meanwhile, Darnold has zero playoff picks and JSN is unstoppable. Seattle wins comfortably.

Play: Seahawks -4.5 (-110). Playable to -6.5.

Shurzy Tip: When the market moves a full point toward a favorite and settles there, respect it. Sharp money found Seattle at -4.5 to -5 and pounded it. Follow the smart money.

Under 46.5 (-110) — STRONG PLAY

Both defenses are elite, and both offenses have struggled to sustain drives in different ways.

Why the Under Hits:

Patriots scored 20+ only once in three playoff games
Seattle allowed 17.2 PPG all season
Sharp analysts project scores like 24-20, 23-17, 27-14
Public loves Super Bowl Overs, which creates Under value

Defensive Metrics:

Both teams rank top-3 in defensive EPA. The Patriots held playoff opponents to 0.72 points per drive. Seattle's defense hasn't allowed more than 27 points since Week 13.

This screams defensive slugfest.

Play: Under 46.5 (-110). Playable to 45.5.

Sam Darnold MVP (+250) — VALUE

If Seattle wins, Darnold's the overwhelming MVP favorite.

Why Darnold Gets MVP:

Zero picks in the playoffs with four TDs
Just exorcised his Rams demons with 346 yards and three TDs in NFC Championship
QB bias in MVP voting (31 of 57 Super Bowl MVPs are QBs)
At +250 to +280, he's the cleanest correlation play with a Seattle win

Play: Sam Darnold MVP (+250).

Shurzy Tip: MVP betting is essentially a leveraged side bet. If you're backing Seattle -4.5, stacking Darnold MVP at +250 is the smart correlation play. He's the engine of that offense.

Player Props: The Sharp Plays

These props offer real value based on usage, matchup, and pricing inefficiencies. Focus your prop card here.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

JSN led the NFL with 1,793 yards and torched the Rams for 153 in the NFC Championship.

Why JSN Goes Over:

Hit this number 10 times this season (including playoffs)
Accounts for 46.2% of Seattle's air yards
Darnold's security blanket, especially in big games
Gonzalez will shadow him, but JSN creates separation against anyone

Play: JSN Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Drake Maye Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Maye rushed for 65, 66, and 65 yards in three straight playoff games.

Why Maye Goes Over:

Had double-digit rushing yards in every game this season except one
Averaged 10 carries per playoff game
If the Patriots can't pass (he threw 86 yards vs Denver), they'll lean on his legs
Seattle's defense will force predictable situations, and Maye's scrambling is the escape valve

Play: Maye Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+106)

JSN scored in both playoff games and 10 of his last 17 overall.

Why JSN Scores:

He's getting plus money to score despite 50% implied probability
Seattle went 4-for-5 in the red zone vs the Rams
Darnold threw all three TDs inside the 20 in the NFC Championship
Red-zone target share makes this a value play at plus money

Play: JSN Anytime TD (+106 at Caesars, +100 elsewhere)

Shurzy Tip: JSN Over 94.5 receiving yards is the best prop on the board. He's Darnold's security blanket, gets 46% of air yards, and just dropped 153 on the Rams. Hammer it.

Final Prediction: Seahawks Roll

Here's how we see Super Bowl LX playing out based on matchup edges, market positioning, and playoff trends.

Score: Seahawks 27, Patriots 17

How Seattle Wins:

Seattle controls the game from the second quarter on:

Darnold manages the offense efficiently (220 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs)
JSN delivers another 100-yard performance (8 catches, 112 yards, 1 TD)
Kenneth Walker scores twice (18 carries, 78 yards, 2 TDs)
Seahawks defense holds Maye under 200 total yards (passing + rushing)

How Patriots Keep It Respectable:

The Patriots score late to make it respectable:

Maye hits a garbage-time TD drive with 3 minutes left
Patriots defense forces two punts in the fourth quarter
But Seattle's balanced attack is too much

The Bottom Line:

The Patriots have been a great story, but the Seahawks are the better team. Sharp money knows it. The market knows it. Now you know it.

These super bowl predictions favor Seattle covering -4.5 comfortably, with the game staying Under 46.5 in a defensive grind. Stack your nfl betting picks accordingly.

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