NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Offensive Line Rankings and Trench Matchups

Offensive line quality is a huge driver of Super Bowl outcomes because it controls pressure, clean pockets and run efficiency, and the four contenders for Super Bowl LX bring very different trench profiles. In simple terms: Broncos and Rams have top-tier lines, Seahawks sit in the next tier with pass-pro questions, and the Patriots are functional but clearly the weakest unit of the four. This is your guide to OL-driven betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

2025 Offensive Line Rankings Snapshot

PFF and broader 2025 reviews have:

Broncos OL - Elite

Ranked No. 1 offensive line at season's end in a USA Today/PFF composite list
Also graded as a Tier-2 "established OL" in offseason previews, reflecting both talent and cohesion

Rams OL - High-End

Ranked No. 4 in those same end-of-year OL rankings
ESPN win-rate metrics list them as allowing the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL entering Championship weekend

Seahawks OL - Solid but Stressed in Pass Pro

Seattle's line isn't bottom-tier, but ESPN notes a trench contrast: Seahawks' pass rush generated the fourth-highest pressure rate (38.9%), while the Rams allowed the second-lowest, implying Seattle's own OL isn't on that Rams/Broncos level

Patriots OL - Weakest in This Group

An ESPN playoff-weakness piece flags one playoff team's line at 30th in pass block win rate (55.4%) and 32nd in run block win rate (68.3%), with things "not improved," describing an OL that's a clear liability among contenders

Likely Trench Matchups in a Super Bowl LX Scenario

Once the NFC and AFC winners are set, you'll be looking at some combination of these:

Rams OL vs AFC Front

Rams bring a top-5 line in composite rankings and the second-lowest pressure rate allowed, supporting deep-drop passing with Matthew Stafford and an efficient run game with Kyren Williams.

Against a Patriots or Broncos front, the Rams are likely to have a protection advantage, giving Stafford more time and keeping the full route tree available.

Betting Implications:

Favors Stafford passing-yards and completions Overs if the total script is even moderately pass-friendly
Supports fewer sacks allowed and helps Rams team-total Overs in neutral weather

Projected Matchup:

Rams OL (No. 4) vs Patriots DL (solid) = Clear Rams advantage Rams OL (No. 4) vs Broncos DL (elite 68-sack unit) = Strength-on-strength, slight Rams edge

Broncos OL vs NFC Front

Broncos' OL graded No. 1 in the league at year end, and was already touted as a top-tier unit in preseason analysis.

Against any NFC front, Denver's line is more likely to hold up in both pass and run, even if QB play (Stidham) is a downgrade from Nix.

Betting Implications:

Keeps Denver offense viable even as an underdog: better chance to sustain drives and protect a less-experienced QB
Sacks and pressure props against Denver should be priced more conservatively; the mismatch isn't as severe as the "backup QB" narrative suggests

Projected Matchup:

Broncos OL (No. 1) vs Rams DL (high-end) = Slight Broncos edge Broncos OL (No. 1) vs Seahawks DL (elite pressure rate) = Best-on-best, neutral

Shurzy Tip: When you see "No. 1 OL vs elite pass rush," don't auto-bet sack Overs. The best OLs neutralize even 68-sack defenses. Broncos OL is that good.

Seahawks OL vs AFC Front

Seattle's pass rush is elite, but their own line is not in that same top tier. Matchup previews for Rams-Seahawks lean on LA's protection as a key Rams edge.

In a Super Bowl vs an AFC pass rush, Seattle's OL would likely be a neutral to slight disadvantage, particularly on pure passing downs.

Betting Implications:

Slight lean toward Seahawks sacks allowed Overs and more volatile Darnold passing props (yards + INT risk)
Deep-shot props (JSN longest reception) depend heavily on how often they can protect for longer-developing concepts

Projected Matchup:

Seahawks OL (solid) vs Patriots DL (solid) = Neutral Seahawks OL (solid) vs Broncos DL (elite 68-sack unit) = Clear Denver advantage

Patriots OL vs NFC Front

With pass block win rate flagged near the bottom of the league and run block metrics also weak, New England's OL is the most fragile of the four units.

Against a Rams or Seahawks front that can generate pressure, Maye will likely face consistent heat, forcing quicker throws and making the run game more matchup-sensitive.

Betting Implications:

Sack and pressure props for NFC defenses gain value vs the Patriots
Maye's ceiling is still high, but you should be more cautious with extreme alt-yardage Overs and be open to interception or pressure-driven turnover props unless there's a clear schematic advantage

Projected Matchup:

Patriots OL (30th pass-block) vs Rams DL (high-end) = Clear Rams advantage Patriots OL (30th pass-block) vs Seahawks DL (elite pressure) = Clear Seattle advantage

How to Use OL Rankings in Super Bowl Betting

When a Team Has a Top-5 OL vs an Average Front:

Example: Rams, Broncos in most matchups

You can be more confident in QB Overs, RB efficiency, and lower sack totals.

Championship Sunday Application:

Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards becomes safer
Kyren Williams Over 78.5 Rushing Yards gains confidence
Rams sacks allowed Under 2.5 becomes viable

When One OL is Clearly a Bottom-Tier Unit vs a Strong Rush:

Example: Patriots in many scenarios

It's a green flag for:

Opponent sacks and defensive props
Shorter aDOT passing and more check-down volume

Championship Sunday Application:

Rams sacks Over 2.5 vs Patriots
Seahawks sacks Over 2.5 vs Patriots
Maye Under 223.5 Passing Yards (pressure forces quick throws)

In Close Spreads (Field-Goal Range):

A clear trench edge is often worth 1-2 points on the line in your own power ratings, and should be reflected in how aggressively you attack sides, team totals, and pass/rush props.

Best OL-Driven Bets for Championship Sunday

Best OL Bet #1: Rams Team Total Over 25.5 (-110)

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Rams' No. 4 OL allows 2nd-lowest pressure rate in NFL, supporting Stafford's deep passing and Kyren Williams' rushing efficiency.

Best OL Bet #2: Patriots Sacks Allowed Over 2.5 (+120)

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 3-4 units

Patriots' 30th-ranked pass-block OL vs any elite NFC front (Rams, Seahawks) creates sack opportunities.

Best OL Bet #3: Broncos +4.5 (+100)

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Broncos' No. 1 OL keeps them competitive even with backup QB Stidham, market overreacted to QB downgrade.

OL Injuries and Betting Impact

Rob Havenstein OUT (Rams RT):

Rams' pass-protection drops from 2nd-lowest pressure rate to middle-of-pack. Stafford sacks allowed increases 34%, Rams team total drops 2-3 points.

Betting Adjustment:

Stafford sacks allowed Over 2.5 becomes safer
Rams team total Under gains value
Kyren Williams rushing yards slightly impacted (run-block weaker)

Patriots OL Injuries:

Patriots' already-weak OL (30th pass-block, 32nd run-block) becomes critical liability with any additional injuries.

Betting Adjustment:

Opponent sacks Over becomes maximum confidence
Maye passing yards Under gains significant value
Rhamondre Stevenson rushing yards impacted

Final Thoughts

For Super Bowl LX, expect the Broncos and Rams to have clear OL advantages in most matchups, the Seahawks to sit in a competent middle tier, and the Patriots' OL to be a exploitable weakness.

When building your Championship Sunday card, OL matchups should be weighted heavily - they're worth 1-2 points on spreads and 2-3 points on team totals.

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