NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Penalty Rankings and Hidden Yardage

Penalties are "hidden yardage" that shape field position, scoring, and close-game results, and the Super Bowl LX field shows a clear split. Rams, Patriots, and Seahawks are among the least-penalised teams in the NFL, while the Broncos are one of the most penalised and have the most penalty yards in the league. This is your guide to penalty-driven betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

2025 Penalties Per Game: Discipline Snapshot

Penalties per game (2025 regular season):

Rams: 4.5 per game (rank 1st - fewest in NFL)
Patriots: 5.5 per game (rank 4th)
Seahawks: 5.7 per game (rank 7th)
Broncos: 7.1 per game (rank 28th - near bottom)

Rams are the cleanest team in the league by flags. Patriots and Seahawks are also top-10 in fewest penalties, while Broncos commit about 2.5 more penalties per game than the Rams.

Penalty Yards:

Broncos: 7.3 penalties and 67.6 penalty yards per game, the most penalised team in a RotoWire study. StatMuse notes 1,149 penalty yards on the season, highest in the NFL.

This means Denver is regularly spotting opponents roughly 20+ more penalty yards per game than a team like the Rams.

Shurzy Tip: Rams commit 4.5 penalties per game (fewest in NFL). Broncos commit 7.1 per game (28th). That's 2.6 extra flags and ~25 extra penalty yards gifted to opponents. That's field position. That's points.

Hidden Yardage and Point Impact

League-level work shows:

Around 20 yards of field position difference is worth approximately 1-1.5 points on the scoreboard over time.

Chiefs-focused research put a 20.4 yard penalty-yardage edge at about 1.4 points per game for Kansas City in their runs.

Applied Here:

If the Broncos are giving away ~67.6 penalty yards per game and a team like the Rams is around 40-45, that 20-plus yard gap is material in a game where key numbers (3 and 7) decide so many ATS results.

That difference can be the hidden margin between covering -2.5 vs winning by 2 and missing.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams face Broncos:

Rams' 4.5 penalties vs Broncos' 7.1 = 2.6 extra flags for Denver
Broncos' 67.6 penalty yards vs Rams' ~42 = 25.6 extra yards gifted
25 yards of field position ≈ 1.5 points on scoreboard
Rams -2.5 gains 1.5-point hidden edge from penalties alone

How This Shapes Super Bowl LX Betting

1. Sides and Close Spreads

Rams, Patriots, Seahawks: top-10 in fewest penalties, so when you bet them on small spreads (±2.5, ±3), you're backing teams less likely to hurt themselves with drive-killing or drive-extending flags.

Broncos: as one of the most penalised teams, Denver introduces extra volatility. They can extend opponents' drives with flags or stall their own, which matters a lot in tight spreads and one-score games.

Practical Lean:

In a hypothetical Rams vs Broncos Super Bowl: hidden yardage and discipline modestly favor the Rams against the number, especially around 3 and 7.

Championship Sunday Examples:

Rams -2.5 vs Broncos: Rams' discipline creates 1-2 point edge
Patriots -3 vs Broncos: Patriots' 5.5 penalties vs Broncos' 7.1 = hidden edge
Seahawks -2.5 vs Broncos: Seattle's 5.7 penalties (7th) vs Denver's 7.1 (28th)

2. Totals and Game Flow

Teams that commit more penalties (especially defensive holds, DPIs, roughing) can inflate totals by extending drives and adding free yardage.

Conversely, disciplined defenses that avoid major fouls produce more "clean" stops and punts, nudging totals down.

So:

Broncos games can skew a bit more volatile for totals due to extra flags and yards. Rams/Patriots/Seahawks games are more likely to reflect underlying efficiency without as much penalty distortion.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Broncos face Patriots:

Broncos' 67.6 penalty yards per game extends Patriots' drives
Expect 3-4 drive-extending DPI/holding calls for Broncos defense
Patriots Team Total Over gains value (free yardage)
Game Over slightly favored (extra plays from penalties)

If Rams face Seahawks:

Both teams top-10 discipline (4.5 and 5.7 penalties)
Fewer drive-extending penalties = cleaner game
Under gains slight edge (no penalty inflation)

3. Props (Drives and Player Stats)

Penalties that extend drives (DPI, illegal contact) create extra plays and yards, benefiting QB and WR yardage Overs and sometimes RB attempts (more plays in total).

Disciplined defenses (Rams, Seahawks, Patriots) are less likely to bail out opponents on 3rd and long, slightly supporting opponent 3rd-down Unders and punt-related props.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Drake Maye faces Broncos defense:

Broncos' 7.1 penalties = more DPI/holding bailouts
Maye Over 223.5 Passing Yards gains value (free completions)
Stefon Diggs Over receiving yards (penalty yardage added)

If Matthew Stafford faces Seahawks defense:

Seahawks' 5.7 penalties (7th-fewest) = clean coverage
Fewer bailouts on 3rd down
Stafford Under 251.5 Passing Yards viable

Simple Ranking for Penalty/Hidden-Yardage Edge

From a discipline standpoint:

Rams - cleanest team (4.5 penalties per game, fewest in NFL)
Patriots - very disciplined (5.5 penalties, 4th)
Seahawks - also in top-10 (5.7 penalties, 7th)
Broncos - most penalised team (7.1 penalties, 28th), most penalty yards (1,149 total, 67.6 per game)

For Super Bowl LX, factor this in as a secondary but real edge: disciplined teams gain a small built-in advantage in field position and close-game margins, while Denver's penalty profile adds variance and slightly hurts their ATS and ML profile in tight spreads.

Penalty Types and Betting Impact

Defensive Pass Interference (Most Damaging):

Average DPI penalty: 28 yards (spot foul)
Impact: Automatic first down + massive field position swing

Championship Sunday Application:

Broncos defense commits DPI at higher rate (more penalties overall). When betting Broncos as underdog, factor in 2-3 potential DPI calls that gift opponent 80+ free yards per game.

Offensive Holding (Drive Killer):

Average holding penalty: -10 yards
Impact: Turns 2nd-and-5 into 2nd-and-15, kills drives

Championship Sunday Application:

Rams' 4.5 penalties means fewer drive-killing holds. Rams team total Overs safer (fewer self-inflicted stalls).

Pre-Snap Penalties (False Starts, Delay of Game):

Average impact: -5 yards
Frequency: Broncos commit more pre-snap penalties (discipline issue)

Championship Sunday Application:

Broncos' penalty profile suggests offensive rhythm issues. Broncos 1H Team Total Under viable (early penalties stall drives).

Best Penalty-Driven Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Penalty Bet #1: Rams -2.5 (-110) vs Broncos

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Rams' 4.5 penalties (1st) vs Broncos' 7.1 penalties (28th) creates 1.5-point hidden edge via field position and discipline.

Best Penalty Bet #2: Patriots Team Total Over 24.5 (-110) vs Broncos

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Broncos' 67.6 penalty yards per game extends Patriots drives via DPI/holding, creates extra scoring opportunities.

Best Penalty Bet #3: Game Under 48.5 (-110) when Rams face Seahawks

Confidence: Medium
Stake: 1-2 units

Both teams top-10 discipline, fewer drive-extending penalties, cleaner game flow supports Under.

Penalty Trends and Live Betting

First-Half Penalty Count Predicts Second-Half:

Teams with 4+ penalties in 1H:

Average 5+ penalties in 2H (regression to mean)
Total penalties typically 9-11 for game
Undisciplined teams stay undisciplined

Championship Sunday Live Application:

If Broncos have 5 penalties in 1H:

Expect 5-6 more in 2H (total 10-11)
Opponent 2H team total Over gains value
Live bet opponent 2H spread

Disciplined Teams Stay Disciplined:

Teams with 0-2 penalties in 1H:

Average 2-3 penalties in 2H
Total penalties typically 3-5 for game

Championship Sunday Live Application:

If Rams have 2 penalties in 1H:

Expect 2-3 more in 2H (total 4-5)
Rams 2H spread gains confidence
Clean game supports Rams covering

Final Thoughts

For Super Bowl LX, factor penalties in as a secondary but real edge: disciplined teams gain a small built-in advantage in field position and close-game margins (1-1.5 points), while Denver's penalty profile (67.6 yards per game, 1,149 total, most in NFL) adds variance and slightly hurts their ATS and ML profile in tight spreads.

Penalties are hidden yardage. 25 extra yards = 1.5 points. In Super Bowl betting where spreads are 2.5-3.5, that matters.

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