NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Red Zone Rankings and Touchdown Efficiency

Red zone rankings tell you how often drives become touchdowns instead of field goals, and they're a big reason the Rams, Seahawks, Broncos, and Patriots are the four left standing for Super Bowl LX. For betting, you care about both offensive red zone TD efficiency and defensive red zone TD prevention, because together they shape TD props, kicker props, and team totals. This is your guide to red-zone betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

Offensive Red Zone TD Efficiency (How Often They Finish Drives)

Key 2025 offensive red zone metrics:

Rams - Elite Volume and Strong Conversion

Led the NFL with 76 red zone trips and scored TDs on 63.2% of those drives (8th-best)
Also had the highest passing TD percentage in the league (about 7.5-8.0%), ahead of every other team
Red zone plus/minus: No. 1 in the league at +141, meaning they scored far more TDs than they allowed in the red zone

Seahawks - High-End TD Rate

Seahawks are listed among the top teams in Athlon's red zone plus/minus rankings, finishing just behind the Rams and 49ers, which implies above-average red zone TD efficiency
Passing TD% also sits top-5 in sample splits (around 7.3%), showing they're dangerous throwing near the goal line

Patriots - Efficient When They Pass in Scoring Areas

Patriots' passing TD percentage is listed at 6.6%, top-10 in the league
Combined with Maye's efficiency, New England are an above-average red zone passing team, though not as dominant as the Rams

Broncos - Middle of the Pack

Broncos' passing TD percentage is 5.1%, closer to league average and below the other three
Offensively they rely more on balance and individual matchups than pure red zone dominance

Takeaway for Overs:

Rams and Seahawks are the most TD-friendly offenses in this group, especially Rams.

Patriots are efficient but a half-step down. Broncos are more "average" and more script-dependent.

Shurzy Tip: Rams led the NFL with 76 red-zone trips AND had a 63.2% TD rate. That's volume + efficiency. Stack Rams TD props when they reach the 20.

Defensive Red Zone TD Prevention (How Often They Force FGs)

Key 2025 defensive red zone stats:

Broncos - Best Red Zone Defense in This Field

Ranked No. 1 in red zone TD rate allowed at 42.6%, per Fox Sports' defensive rankings

Rams - Strong Red Zone Defense

Ranked No. 3 in red zone TD rate allowed at 46.2%

Seahawks - Top-10 but Not as Stingy as DEN/RAM

Championship preview notes Seattle allows a 20.5% red zone TD rate in a specific sample (rank 8th), underscoring a very good situational defense that forces FGs often

Patriots - Around Mid-Tier Among Playoff Defenses

Fox and StatRankings data place New England outside the very top tier - they're solid but not as efficient at forcing FGs as Denver/Rams/Seattle

Takeaway for Unders:

Broncos and Rams defenses are most likely to turn opponents' red zone trips into 3 instead of 7.

Seahawks are also good. Patriots are the most targetable in this mini-pool.

Red Zone Plus/Minus: Who Wins the TD Trade

Athlon's Red Zone Plus/Minus combines how often teams score TDs on their own red zone trips and prevent them on defense:

Rams: No. 1 with a +141 red zone plus/minus, leading the league and underlining their TD conversion dominance on both sides of the ball.

Seahawks: Also in the top-3 in plus/minus. NFC West "dominates" the top of the list with Rams and Seahawks both grading out as red zone monsters.

Broncos and Patriots: Both appear positively but below the NFC West pair, meaning they're good but not as extreme in the TD vs FG trade.

For Super Bowl betting, plus/minus is a quick way to see who's structurally more likely to win 7-3 exchanges.

How to Apply This to Super Bowl LX Bets

1. Anytime TD vs Kicker Props

Rams & Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense:

Offense: high TD rates
Defense: Patriots are the weakest red zone D here

That setup favors Anytime TD Overs on primary weapons (Puka Nacua, JSN, Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker) over heavy reliance on kicker Overs.

Championship Sunday Application:

Puka Nacua Anytime TD (-150) vs Patriots maximum confidence
Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (+170) vs Patriots high confidence
Fade kicker Overs, prioritize TD props

Broncos vs Rams or Seahawks Defense:

Denver offense is average in TD rate. Rams/Broncos/Seahawks defenses are strong in the red zone.

That leans more toward FG makes and kicker points Overs than RB/WR TD overs, unless pricing is generous.

Championship Sunday Application:

Brandon McManus (Broncos) Over 7.5 Points (-110) strong play
RJ Harvey Anytime TD (+200) only at long odds
Prioritize kicker props over TD props

2. Team Totals and Alt Spreads

Teams with strong offensive and defensive red zone profiles (Rams, Seahawks) are better candidates to outperform their team totals and to cover alt spreads, because each scoring trip is more likely to be worth 7 than 3.

Teams with weaker red zone defense (Patriots) are likelier to give up TDs, making them more fragile as dogs if they can't match that TD efficiency.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams face Patriots:

Rams Team Total Over 25.5 (-110) maximum confidence
Rams Alt Spread -6.5 (+150) viable value
Patriots likely to give up 3-4 TDs

3. Live Red Zone Betting

Knowing these ranks helps in-game:

When Rams or Seahawks enter the red zone, "drive result = TD" live markets are worth a look at reasonable prices, given their top-end conversion rates.

When Broncos or Patriots face Denver/Rams in the red zone, "FG attempt" or "drive ends in a FG or turnover" is more likely than average relative to the rest of the league.

Quick Ranking for Touchdown Efficiency Context

On a combined offense + defense red zone basis:

Rams - best plus/minus (+141), high TD rate (63.2%), strong red zone D (46.2%)
Seahawks - excellent TD efficiency and top-10 red zone D
Broncos - elite red zone defense (42.6%), average offense
Patriots - good offense (6.6% passing TD%), but comparatively weakest red zone D in this four-team group

For Super Bowl LX, lean most heavily into Rams and Seahawks scoring TD props and Overs, be more FG-oriented against Denver's defense, and treat Patriots games as the likeliest to feature opponent TD spikes relative to their peers.

Best Red Zone Efficiency Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Red Zone Bet #1: Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-150) vs Patriots

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 3-4 units

Rams' 63.2% red-zone TD rate (8th in NFL) + 76 red-zone trips (1st) vs Patriots' mid-tier red-zone defense.

Best Red Zone Bet #2: Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (+170) vs Patriots

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Seahawks' top-5 red-zone efficiency vs Patriots' targetable red-zone defense, Walker's 12 red-zone carries in last 4 games.

Best Red Zone Bet #3: Brandon McManus Over 8.5 Points (-110) vs Seahawks

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Broncos' average red-zone offense (5.1% TD%) vs Seahawks' top-10 red-zone defense creates FG opportunities.

Final Thoughts

Red zone efficiency is where drives become points. For Super Bowl LX, the Rams' +141 plus/minus leads the NFL, Seahawks are close behind, Broncos have elite defense but average offense, and Patriots are the most targetable red-zone defense in this group.

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