NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Seattle Seahawks Best Bets and Betting Angles

The Seattle Seahawks enter Super Bowl LX as 4.5 to 5-point favorites over the New England Patriots, marking their fourth Super Bowl appearance and first since falling to these same Patriots after the 2014 season. For Seahawks backers, the value lies in betting an offense that has multiple ways to score against a Patriots defense that has been historically dominant but vulnerable in the red zone, combined with a Seattle defense that allows the lowest rushing success rate in the NFL. These Seattle Seahawks betting picks focus on their elite two-way dominance, JSN's volume advantage, and red-zone efficiency that should overwhelm New England.

February 9, 2026

The Case for Seahawks -4.5 to -5

Sharp money moved this line from the -3.5 opener to -4.5 and as high as -5 within hours, signaling professional confidence in Seattle.

Elite on Both Sides

Seattle finished the regular season third in scoring offense (28.4 PPG) and first in scoring defense (17.2 PPG):

One of only three teams this decade to rank top-three in both categories
Point differential of +11.2 per game was best in NFL
Dominated the NFC all season

Run Defense Dominance

The Seahawks' defense allows just 34% success rate on designed runs, the lowest in the NFL:

Opponents managed minus-34 first downs over expectation when rushing
EPA per play against the run: -0.15 (best in football)
Haven't allowed 100-yard rusher in 28 straight games

Patriots Offense Anemic in Playoffs

New England has averaged just 18 points per game in the playoffs, the fewest by any Super Bowl team since the 1979 Rams:

Drake Maye completed only 55.8% of passes in postseason (down from 72% regular season)
Threw for season-low 86 yards in AFC Championship
Scored one TD or fewer in 2 of 3 playoff games
Managed only 10 points against Denver

Against Seattle's elite defense, expecting New England to reach 20 points is optimistic at best.

Historical Trends

While underdogs have covered five straight Super Bowls, teams that win the Super Bowl are 50-7-2 ATS all-time. When a team wins outright, they almost always cover.

Seattle has every statistical and schematic advantage. If you believe Seattle wins (which the market, sharps, and advanced metrics all suggest), then laying 4.5 to 5 points is the correct play.

Play: Seahawks -4.5 (-110). Playable to -6.

Shurzy Tip: Sharp money doesn't move Super Bowl lines 1.5 points overnight for fun. They found value on Seattle -4.5 to -5 and hammered it. When pros push a line that hard that fast, you follow.

Best Bets: Seattle Seahawks Betting Picks

These are the core plays for Seahawks backers who believe in two-way dominance and offensive firepower.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

JSN led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards during regular season, ranking eighth all-time for single-season receiving yards.

Elite Efficiency

He accomplished this with fewer than 170 targets:

16.1 yards per catch
Turns short and intermediate targets into explosive gains
Accounts for 46.2% of Seattle's air yards
36% target share, highest in league since 2019

Recent Performance

In the NFC Championship, JSN caught 10 of 12 targets for 153 yards and a TD against a Rams defense that had held him in check during two prior regular-season meetings. He's now scored in both playoff games.

Volume Advantage

JSN's receiving yards prop opened at 94.5, more than double any other player in the game, reflecting his volume and efficiency. He's gone over 94.5 receiving yards 10 times during regular season (including playoffs).

The Patriots will likely assign Christian Gonzalez to shadow him, but JSN's versatility (slot, tight formation, or wide) makes him nearly impossible to neutralize.

Even if the Patriots focus on taking JSN away, Darnold will need to feed him 8-10 targets to move chains, and that volume alone should push him over 94.5 yards.

Play: JSN Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-113). Playable to 99.5.

Shurzy Tip: This is the single best prop on the board. JSN gets 46% of Seattle's air yards, just dropped 153 on the Rams, and his prop is set at 94.5 (more than double any other player). Hammer it.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+100 to +106)

JSN has scored in both playoff games and in 10 of his last 17 games overall, a 58.9% hit rate.

Underpriced Value

His anytime touchdown odds are priced at +100 to +106, implying just a 48-51% probability. This is underpriced value given his red-zone role and Seattle's offensive efficiency.

Red Zone Usage

The Seahawks went 4-for-5 in the red zone against the Rams in NFC Championship:

Darnold threw all three TDs inside the 20
JSN caught one of those touchdowns
Primary red-zone target alongside Cooper Kupp

Patriots Vulnerability

The Patriots rank 31st in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed during regular season (67.5% conversion rate). That's a massive liability against an offense like Seattle's that converts efficiently.

Play: JSN Anytime TD (+106 at Caesars, +100 elsewhere). Playable to -105.

Kenneth Walker III Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Walker has been on a tear since Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in the divisional round.

Recent Performance

116 yards and 3 TDs on 19 carries vs 49ers
62 yards plus 4 receptions for 49 receiving yards vs Rams
364 rushing yards over last four games (91 YPG average)

Massive Workload

With Charbonnet out, Walker is seeing huge volume:

Rushing attempts line: 18.5
Combined rushing + receiving yards: 105.5
Should see 18-22 touches in Super Bowl

Patriots Run Defense Strong But...

The Patriots' run defense has been historically dominant in playoffs (2.03 YPC to RBs, zero rushing TDs), but Walker has shown ability to create yards after contact and make defenders miss.

Walker's volume alone (18+ carries likely) should push him over 76.5 yards, even against an elite run defense. If Seattle controls the game and runs clock in fourth quarter, Walker could easily hit 90-100+ yards.

Play: Walker Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110). Playable to 79.5.

Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (-180 to -195)

Walker is the heavy favorite to score at -180 to -195, reflecting his role as Seattle's primary ball-carrier with Charbonnet out.

Playoff Production

Scored in both playoff games
Three touchdowns against 49ers
Five rushing TDs and one receiving TD during regular season
Four playoff TDs in two games

Red Zone Usage

His red-zone usage has spiked with Charbonnet unavailable. The Seahawks will need him to punch in short-yardage scores if they get inside the Patriots' 10-yard line.

At -180, this is expensive, but it's clean correlation with a Seattle win and a way to bet on Seahawks' ground game dominating.

Play: Walker Anytime TD (-180). Small to moderate stake (1-1.5 units).

Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-130 to -136)

Darnold threw three touchdowns in NFC Championship and has been clean in playoffs.

Playoff Efficiency

69.8% completion rate
Four TDs, zero interceptions
Passer rating: 122.4 in NFC Championship

Patriots Red Zone Weakness

The Patriots' red-zone defense has been a weakness all season:

Ranked 31st in red-zone TD percentage (67.5% conversion rate allowed)
Seattle went 4-for-5 in red zone vs Rams
Darnold threw all three TDs inside the 20

If the Seahawks reach the red zone 3-4 times (conservative estimate), Darnold should throw for at least two touchdowns.

Play: Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-130). Playable to -140.

Shurzy Tip: Patriots rank 31st in red-zone TD% allowed. Seattle went 4-for-5 in red zone vs the Rams. When elite offense meets bad red-zone defense, stack TD props. Darnold Over 1.5 passing TDs is free money.

Advanced Betting Angles for Seahawks Backers

These matchup edges create additional Seattle Seahawks best bets opportunities beyond the obvious plays.

Red Zone Domination

The Patriots' red-zone defense is a glaring weakness:

Allowed 67.5% TD conversion rate during regular season (31st in NFL)
Seattle's red-zone offense: 54.2% TD conversion rate regular season
4-for-5 vs Rams in NFC Championship

This matchup heavily favors Seattle. If the Seahawks reach the red zone 3-4 times, they should score 2-3 touchdowns, which alone would put them at 14-21 points before accounting for field goals or explosive plays.

Betting Angle: Hammer Seahawks TD scorers (JSN, Walker, Darnold passing TDs) given Patriots' red-zone struggles.

Defensive Efficiency Against the Run

Seattle's defense allows lowest rushing success rate in NFL (34%):

Held opponents to minus-34 first downs over expectation when rushing
Patriots' offense built around Drake Maye's rushing (33.5 YPG in playoffs) and Rhamondre Stevenson's volume

If the Patriots can't run the ball, they'll face predictable passing situations on second-and-long and third-and-long, where Seattle's pass rush and secondary thrive.

Third Down Dominance

The Seahawks rank first in third-down conversion rate allowed (32.1%), which is a death sentence for an offense like New England's that has struggled on third down in playoffs.

Betting Angle: Back Seahawks team total Over 23.5 or Seahawks to win by 7+ points, as Patriots' offense will struggle to keep pace.

Sam Darnold's Playoff Efficiency

Darnold led NFL in turnovers during regular season (14 INTs, 20 total turnovers), but he's been clean in playoffs:

Four TDs, zero INTs
Playoff passer rating: 122.4 in NFC Championship
Playing within system, not forcing throws

The market has priced Darnold's interceptions line at 0.5 with heavy juice to Under (+111), suggesting books expect him to remain clean.

If Darnold avoids turnovers and Seattle's defense creates 1-2 takeaways (realistic given Patriots' offensive struggles), game script tilts heavily in Seattle's favor.

Betting Angle: Bet Sam Darnold Under 0.5 Interceptions (+111) as correlation to clean Seahawks win.

Correlated Same-Game Parlay for Seahawks Backers

For those looking to build correlated parlay around Seahawks blowout or comfortable win, these Seattle Seahawks betting picks stack perfectly together.

Seahawks Dominance Parlay

Seahawks -4.5 (core bet)
JSN Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (volume + efficiency)
Kenneth Walker Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (Seahawks control clock)
Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs (red-zone efficiency)

This parlay pays approximately +900 to +1200 depending on book and reflects script where Seattle dominates on both sides of ball, with JSN and Walker leading offense and Darnold managing game efficiently.

Shurzy Tip: Don't build 10-leg lottery tickets. This 4-leg correlated parlay tells one story: Seattle dominates, JSN gets volume, Walker controls clock, Darnold throws 2+ TDs. Simple, correlated, smart.

Final Verdict: Seahawks as Dominant Favorites

The Seahawks are -4.5 to -5 for good reason. They're the better team on both sides of the ball, they have the better quarterback performance in the playoffs, and they match up extremely well against a Patriots offense that has averaged just 18 PPG in the postseason.

Seattle's defense is elite (17.2 PPG allowed, #1 in NFL), their offense has multiple weapons (JSN, Walker, Kupp, Shaheed), and they've been battle-tested all season against top competition.

The Patriots have a great story and an elite defense, but asking them to score 21-24 points against the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense while holding Seattle under 24 is unrealistic.

These Seattle Seahawks best bets don't require a blowout. They just require Seattle to do what they've done all season: control both lines of scrimmage, dominate in the red zone, and force opponents into predictable situations.

The Seahawks should win comfortably, and backing them to cover -4.5 to -5, combined with JSN's receiving props, Walker's rushing, and Darnold's passing TDs, is the cleanest betting card for Super Bowl LX.

Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Patriots 17. Seattle covers -4.5.

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