NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Seattle Seahawks Offense Deep Dive and Scoring Paths

The Seattle Seahawks offense enters Super Bowl LX as the NFL's 3rd-ranked scoring unit (28.4 PPG), built on a balanced, efficient attack that ranks 10th in rushing (2,096 yards) and features the league's leading receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,793 yards). Under first-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak (one of the hottest head coaching candidates this cycle), the Seahawks have transformed into a play-action-heavy, bootleg-friendly offense that exploits defenses with elite weapons and schematic creativity. Against the Patriots' historically dominant playoff defense (8.7 PPG allowed), Seattle's offense presents the toughest test New England has faced, with multiple scoring paths that should push them into the 24-27 point range.

February 9, 2026

Offensive Philosophy: Kubiak's Shanahan-McVay System

Kubiak, a product of the Shanahan-McVay coaching tree, has installed an offense centered on play-action passing, bootlegs, and creating explosive plays off a credible run threat.

The Seahawks deployed play-action on 26.9% of Darnold's dropbacks (8th-highest in NFL), generating elite efficiency. Darnold averaged 11.4 yards per attempt on play-action (2nd in NFL) with a 123.1 passer rating (5th in NFL).

Kubiak's Two Core Principles:

Run to set up play-action. Seattle ranks 10th in rushing (128.9 YPG) and uses four-man surfaces (under center, tight end attached) to create two-high safety conflicts where defenses must respect the run, opening up deep shots.

Bootlegs and designed rollouts. Darnold thrived in these situations at USC and with the Jets, and Kubiak has maximized his mobility by scheming clean pockets outside the tackle box.

Advanced Metrics:

According to TruMedia, Darnold was in the pocket 42% of plays (significant increase from Geno Smith's 23.4% under Ryan Grubb in 2024), showing Kubiak's preference for traditional dropbacks mixed with play-action and bootlegs.

Shurzy Tip: Kubiak's play-action offense ranks 2nd in NFL in yards per attempt (11.4) and 5th in passer rating (123.1). When you scheme bootlegs and clean pockets for a QB who can move, you get 28.4 PPG. Patriots have never faced this.

Sam Darnold: Efficiency Meets Explosiveness

Darnold has had a career renaissance under Kubiak, posting career highs in completion percentage (67.7%) and yards per attempt (8.5).

His 35 completions of 25+ yards ranked 6th in NFL, showing his ability to create big plays while maintaining efficiency.

Regular Season vs Playoff Performance

Regular Season stats:

4,048 passing yards, 25 TDs, 14 INTs
67.7% completion, 8.5 YPA
Led NFL with 20 total turnovers (14 INTs, 6 fumbles)

Playoffs transformation:

Zero INTs in last 2 games (4 TDs total)
69.8% completion in NFC Championship (346 yards, 3 TDs)
Passer rating 122.4 in NFC title game

Darnold's playoff transformation from turnover-prone in regular season to clean and efficient in postseason has been critical to Seattle's success. Head coach Mike Macdonald praised Darnold after NFC Championship: "He shut a lot of people up tonight."

Play-Action Mastery

Darnold's 11.7-yard average depth of target on play-action was a league-high, showing Kubiak's willingness to take deep shots off of bootlegs and designed rollouts.

Against the Patriots (who deploy man coverage on 50% of dropbacks and blitz heavily), Darnold's ability to hit deep crossers and seam routes off play-action will be critical.

Shurzy Tip: Darnold had 20 turnovers in regular season, then 0 INTs in last 2 playoff games. That's not luck, that's Kubiak scheming clean pockets and Darnold making smart decisions. Bet Darnold props with confidence.

Offensive Weapons: Multiple Ways to Score

Seattle's offense is loaded with weapons at every level, creating mismatches that no defense can fully contain.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The NFL's Elite Receiver

JSN led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards (105.5 YPG).

Historic Season:

8th-most single-season receiving yards in NFL history
Obliterated Seattle's franchise record (1,303 by Steve Largent)
36% target share (highest in league since 2019)
Accounts for 49.2% of Seattle's air yards

Versatility:

JSN's versatility allows him to dominate from slot, outside, or tight to formation, making him nearly impossible to shadow.

In NFC Championship, he caught 10 of 12 targets for 153 yards and a TD, showcasing his ability to elevate in high-leverage games.

Cooper Kupp: Veteran Red-Zone Weapon

At 33, Kupp is past his prime but remains a critical piece in Seattle's offense, especially in red zone.

He caught 4-of-5 targets for 36 yards and a TD in NFC Championship, showing his veteran savvy and ability to find soft spots in zone coverage.

Kupp's slot role allows JSN to play outside more frequently, creating favorable matchups for both receivers. Despite injury concerns (heel, hamstring) and reduced production (42 YPG in 7 games), Kupp's red-zone presence makes him a plus-money TD bet.

Rashid Shaheed: Deep Threat and Return Specialist

Acquired at trade deadline from Saints, Shaheed reunites with Kubiak after playing in his offense in New Orleans in 2024 (20 catches, 349 yards, 3 TDs in 6 games before ACL injury).

Shaheed clocked the 8th-fastest 40-yard dash time on an 87-yard TD in Week 5, and his speed creates a vertical dimension that forces defenses to respect deep shots.

In NFC Championship, Shaheed caught a 51-yard gain on opening drive, immediately impacting game with his explosiveness. Kubiak knows how to manufacture touches for him via speed sweeps, jet sweeps, and deep crossers.

Kenneth Walker III: Workhorse Back After Charbonnet Injury

Walker has been on a tear since Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in divisional round.

Recent Production:

116 yards and 3 TDs against 49ers
364 yards over last 4 games (91 YPG)
With Charbonnet out, Walker is Seattle's primary ball-carrier and red-zone hammer
Averaging 20+ carries per game in playoffs

Offensive Coordinator Praise:

Klint Kubiak praised Walker after Charbonnet's injury: "The film speaks for itself. Walker can play high-level football, and we have complete faith in him to handle an increased load."

Walker finished regular season with 1,027 rushing yards and 5 TDs, plus 31 receptions for 282 yards as a receiver.

Walker's ability to break tackles and create yards after contact makes him a volume-based prop target, and his workhorse role (18-22 touches likely) should push him over 76.5 rushing yards.

Shurzy Tip: JSN accounts for 49.2% of Seattle's air yards, Walker gets 20+ carries, Kupp finds red-zone soft spots. Seattle has too many weapons for Patriots to cover. Stack Seahawks props and watch the cash roll in.

Offensive Line: Pass Protection Concerns, Run Blocking Solid

The Seahawks' offensive line is a mixed bag.

Solid in run blocking but vulnerable in pass protection. According to Pro Football Focus, Seattle ranks 13th in pass blocking win rate and 10th in run blocking win rate.

Challenge vs Patriots:

The Patriots' interior defensive line led by Milton Williams and Christian Barmore (2nd-ranked DT tandem in NFL) will test Seattle's guards and center, particularly on obvious passing downs.

If Williams and Barmore can collapse pockets and force Darnold into quick throws, Seattle's offense will become one-dimensional.

Run Blocking Strength:

However, Seattle's run blocking has been effective all season, ranking 10th in rushing yards (2,096) despite deploying nickel and dime packages on defense that leave offense with shorter fields.

If Walker can create consistent 4-5 yard gains on first and second down, Darnold will face manageable third downs where play-action and bootlegs thrive.

Red Zone Offense: Efficient When They Get There

The Seahawks rank 14th in red-zone TD conversion rate (57.14%), which is middle-of-the-pack but significantly better than the Patriots' 31st-ranked red-zone defense (67.5% TD rate allowed).

Seattle went 4-for-5 in red zone against Rams in NFC Championship, with Darnold throwing all 3 TDs inside the 20.

Seattle's Red-Zone Weapons:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Primary target on slants, fades, back-shoulder throws
Cooper Kupp: Veteran slot presence who finds soft spots in zone
Kenneth Walker III: Power back who punches in short-yardage TDs
AJ Barner (TE): Used on "push plays" in short-yardage situations

Projection:

If Seattle reaches red zone 3-4 times (realistic projection given Patriots' defensive struggles inside the 20), they should score 2-3 TDs, putting them at 14-21 points before accounting for field goals or explosive plays outside red zone.

Shurzy Tip: Seattle went 4-for-5 in red zone vs Rams. Patriots rank 31st in red-zone defense (67.5% TD rate allowed). This is the mismatch that breaks the game open. Bet Seahawks TD scorers with confidence.

Scoring Paths for Seahawks vs Patriots

Given Seattle's offensive balance and Patriots' defensive vulnerabilities, here are the three most likely scoring trends nfl to watch.

Path 1: Balanced Attack Plus Red Zone Efficiency (24-27 Points)

This is the Seahawks' most likely scoring path and represents the foundation of Seattle Seahawks offense ranking analysis.

The formula is balanced offensive performance where Walker controls clock (18-22 carries, 80+ yards), JSN dominates through air (10+ targets, 100+ yards, 1 TD), and Darnold efficiently manages game (240+ yards, 2-3 TDs, 0 INTs).

The Math:

If Seattle reaches red zone 3-4 times and converts 2-3 into TDs, they'll score:

14-21 points via touchdowns
Plus 1-2 field goals (3-6 points)
Total of 24-27 points

This aligns with expert projections and historical data showing Seattle's offense thrives when they control tempo and win time of possession.

Betting Angle: Seahawks team total Over 23.5 (-110) + Seahawks -4.5 as correlated pair. If Seattle scores 24-27, they cover comfortably.

Path 2: Explosive Play-Action Attack (28-31 Points)

If Patriots commit to stopping Walker and play man coverage across board, Darnold can exploit them with deep play-action shots to JSN, Shaheed, and Kupp.

Darnold's 11.4 yards per attempt on play-action (2nd in NFL) creates explosive-play potential, and Seattle has shown ability to score quickly when defenses sell out against run.

In This Script, Seattle Scores Via:

2-3 passing TDs (Darnold to JSN, Kupp, or Shaheed)
1-2 Walker rushing TDs
1-2 field goals

This pushes them into 28-31 point range, which would be a blowout if Patriots score their projected 14-17 points.

Betting Angle: Sam Darnold Over 1.5 passing TDs (-136) + JSN Anytime TD (+106) as correlated pair. If Seattle explodes via passing, both cash easily.

Path 3: Grinding, Ball-Control Offense (20-24 Points)

If game stays close and Seattle prioritizes clock control, they can lean heavily on Walker (22-25 carries) and short, safe passes to JSN and Kupp underneath.

This Script Would Produce:

1-2 passing TDs
1-2 Walker rushing TDs
2-3 field goals

This puts Seattle at 20-24 points, still enough to cover -4.5 if Patriots score 14-17.

Betting Angle: Kenneth Walker Over 76.5 rushing yards (-110) + Walker Anytime TD (-180) as correlated pair. If Seattle grinds, Walker sees 20+ touches and finds end zone.

Shurzy Tip: Seattle has 3 realistic scoring paths, and all 3 put them at 20+ points. Patriots have 3 realistic scoring paths, and 2 of them put them under 17 points. That's why Seattle is -4.5.

Final Verdict: Multiple Paths to 24-27 Points

The Seahawks have the NFL's 3rd-ranked scoring offense for a reason. They have multiple ways to score (run, pass, play-action, red zone) and elite weapons across the board (JSN, Kupp, Shaheed, Walker). Against the Patriots' defense (vulnerable in red zone and susceptible to play-action), Seattle should reach 24-27 points comfortably. The Patriots' offense has averaged just 18 PPG in playoffs, meaning Seattle only needs to score 21-24 to cover -4.5. With Kubiak's schematic creativity, Darnold's clean playoff performances, and an elite receiving corps, the Seahawks are positioned to dominate. This Seattle Seahawks offense ranking and scoring trends nfl analysis confirms Seattle has the firepower to blow past 24 points while covering -4.5 against a Patriots offense that can't keep pace. Bet the Seahawks' offense to deliver 24-27 points, cover -4.5, and cash JSN/Walker/Darnold props along the way.

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