NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Seattle Seahawks Player Props Breakdown

The Seahawks' playoff run has been defined by Sam Darnold's redemption arc and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's emergence as the NFL's elite receiver, creating a potent offensive attack that ranks third in scoring (28.4 PPG). Against a Patriots defense that has been historically dominant but vulnerable in the red zone (67.5% TD conversion rate allowed, 31st in NFL), these Seattle Seahawks player props offer significant value across passing, rushing, and receiving markets. Seattle's offense has multiple weapons, volume-based roles, and favorable matchups that create both high-floor and high-ceiling betting opportunities. The key is stacking JSN's volume (94.5 receiving yards), Walker's workhorse role (76.5 rushing yards), and Darnold's red-zone efficiency (Over 1.5 passing TDs).

February 9, 2026

Sam Darnold Props: The Redemption Narrative

Darnold has been clinical in the playoffs with zero interceptions and four TDs. His props offer value based on volume and red-zone efficiency.

Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-136) — BEST BET

This is the single best Darnold prop on the board.

Why This Hits:

Darnold has thrown 4 TDs in 2 playoff games (2 per game average):

Threw 3 TDs in NFC Championship vs Rams
All 3 TDs came inside the 20-yard line
Seattle went 4-for-5 in red zone vs Rams

Patriots Red-Zone Weakness:

The Patriots rank 31st in red-zone TD percentage allowed (67.5% conversion rate). If Seahawks reach red zone 3-4 times (conservative estimate given Patriots' struggles), Darnold should throw for at least 2 TDs.

CBS Sports' expert analysis backs Darnold Over 1.5 passing TDs with strong lean, noting Patriots' red-zone defense is even worse than Rams' secondary.

Patriots have allowed multiple passing TDs in 6 of their last 8 games, creating clear path for Darnold to hit Over.

Play: Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-136). Strong play despite juice.

Shurzy Tip: Patriots rank 31st in red-zone TD% allowed. Seattle went 4-for-5 in red zone vs Rams. When elite offense meets bad red-zone defense, stack TD props. This is money.

Sam Darnold Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-111) — STRONG PLAY

Darnold's passing yards prop sits at 230.5, right in line with his playoff average of 235 YPG.

Playoff Performance:

Wild Card vs 49ers: 124 yards (run-heavy blowout, 41-6)
NFC Championship vs Rams: 346 yards (offensive shootout)
Playoff average: 235 yards per game

Why He Goes Over:

Yahoo Sports' prop model projects Darnold at +16.9 yards above his line and gives Over 235.5 an A+ grade. Notes Seattle's need to throw against Patriots defense that will focus on stopping the run.

Patriots' pass defense has been vulnerable to volume passing attacks that target tight windows and intermediate routes. Darnold's 69.8% completion rate in playoffs suggests he's playing efficiently.

JSN's volume alone (10+ targets likely) should push Darnold over 230.5 yards.

Play: Darnold Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-111). Playable to 235.5.

Sam Darnold Under 0.5 Interceptions (+111) — VALUE PLAY

Darnold's interceptions line is 0.5 with slight juice to Under (+111).

Playoff Efficiency:

Thrown zero INTs in last 2 playoff games
Just 1 INT in 4 career playoff games (0.25 per game)
Threw 6 INTs vs Rams in regular season, but 0 INTs in NFC Championship (346 yards, 3 TDs)

Why This Has Value:

While Darnold led NFL in total turnovers during regular season (14 INTs, 20 total), his playoff performances suggest he's playing more conservatively. According to PFF, 10 QBs (including Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford) committed more turnover-worthy plays than Darnold this season.

Many of Darnold's INTs came after bouncing off receivers' helmets or hands. Seattle has 5-1 record when Darnold commits 2+ turnovers, but his recent clean play suggests he's minimized risk.

At +111, Under 0.5 interceptions offers slight value as correlation to clean Seahawks win.

Play: Darnold Under 0.5 Interceptions (+111 at Caesars). Small to moderate stake.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Props: The NFL's Best Receiver

JSN led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards and accounts for 46.2% of Seattle's air yards. His props are the safest plays on the board.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-113) — BEST BET

This is the single best prop in Super Bowl LX.

Elite Season:

Led NFL with 1,793 receiving yards (8th all-time single-season)
Accomplished this with fewer than 170 targets
Elite efficiency: 16.1 yards per catch
36% target share (highest in league since 2019)

Recent Dominance:

Caught 10 of 12 targets for 153 yards and TD in NFC Championship
Scored in both playoff games
Gone over 94.5 receiving yards 10 times during regular season (including playoffs)

Volume Advantage:

JSN's receiving yards prop opened at 94.5, more than double any other player in game. He accounts for:

49.2% of Seattle's air yards
48.8% Air Yards Share (2nd in NFL)
44.4% First Read Target Share (2nd in NFL)
44.8% Designed Target Share (5th in NFL)

Even if Patriots assign Christian Gonzalez to shadow him, JSN's versatility (slot, tight formation, wide) makes him nearly impossible to neutralize. Darnold will need to feed him 8-10 targets to move chains.

Play: JSN Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-113). Playable to 99.5.

Shurzy Tip: JSN gets 46% of Seattle's air yards, just dropped 153 on the Rams, and his prop is set at 94.5 (more than double any other player). This is the safest prop in the entire Super Bowl. Hammer it.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+100 to +106) — STRONG VALUE

JSN has scored in both playoff games and 10 of last 17 games overall (58.9% hit rate).

Underpriced Value:

His anytime TD odds are priced at +100 to +106, implying just 48-51% probability. This is underpriced given his red-zone role and Seattle's efficiency.

Red-Zone Usage:

Seahawks went 4-for-5 in red zone vs Rams in NFC Championship
Darnold threw all 3 TDs inside the 20
JSN caught 1 of those TDs, primary red-zone target alongside Kupp

Patriots Vulnerability:

Patriots rank 31st in red-zone TD percentage allowed (67.5% conversion rate). That's massive liability against offense like Seattle's that converts efficiently.

Caesars offers best price at +106, but even +100 at most books is solid value.

Play: JSN Anytime TD (+106 at Caesars, +100 elsewhere). Playable to -105.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8+ Receptions (+131)

JSN's receptions line is 6.5 (Over -141), but 8+ receptions prop at +131 offers better value for volume believers.

Volume Stats:

Averaged 7.1 receptions per game during regular season (119 catches in 17 games)
Caught 10 in NFC Championship
Hit 8+ receptions in 8 of 19 games (42%) this season including playoffs

Why This Hits:

At +131, market is pricing this at roughly 43% probability. Patriots will likely deploy heavy man coverage and try to take away Seattle's deep shots, which should funnel targets to JSN on shorter, high-percentage routes.

If Patriots focus on stopping Walker and force Darnold to throw 32-35 times, JSN should see 11-13 targets and catch 8-10.

Play: JSN 8+ Receptions (+131 at Caesars). Moderate stake.

Kenneth Walker III Props: Workhorse Role

Walker has been on a tear since Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL, averaging 91 rushing yards per game over last four games.

Kenneth Walker III Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110) — STRONG PLAY

Walker is seeing massive workload with Charbonnet out.

Recent Performance:

116 yards and 3 TDs on 19 carries vs 49ers
62 yards plus 4 receptions for 49 receiving yards vs Rams
364 rushing yards over last 4 games (91 YPG average)

Volume Indicators:

Rushing attempts line: 18.5
Combined rushing + receiving yards: 103.5
Should see 18-22 touches in Super Bowl

Why He Goes Over:

Walker's volume alone (18+ carries likely) should push him over 76.5 yards, even against Patriots run defense that has been elite in playoffs (2.03 YPC to RBs, zero rushing TDs).

Walker has shown ability to create yards after contact and make defenders miss. He's had multiple 20+ yard runs in games against Rams and 49ers.

If Seattle controls game and runs clock in fourth quarter, Walker could easily hit 90-100+ yards.

Play: Walker Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110). Playable to 79.5.

Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (-180) — CORE BET

Walker is heavy favorite to score at -180 to -195.

Playoff Production:

Scored in both playoff games
3 TDs against 49ers
4 playoff TDs total in 2 games
5 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD during regular season

Red-Zone Usage:

His red-zone usage has spiked with Charbonnet unavailable. Seahawks will need him to punch in short-yardage scores if they get inside Patriots' 10-yard line.

At -180, this is expensive, but it's clean correlation with Seattle win and way to bet on Seahawks' ground game dominating.

Play: Walker Anytime TD (-180). Moderate to strong stake (1-1.5 units).

Shurzy Tip: Walker has 4 TDs in 2 playoff games with Charbonnet out. He's getting 18+ carries, Seattle should score 24-27 points, and at least one is coming from Walker. Expensive at -180 but it hits.

Secondary Weapons: Kupp and Shaheed Props

Seattle's secondary weapons offer plus-money value for diversification.

Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (+300 to +350) — VALUE PLAY

Kupp is past his prime but still a red-zone weapon.

Why This Has Value:

Caught TD in NFC Championship (4 of 5 targets for 36 yards and TD vs Rams)
Used primarily on high-leverage plays and in red zone
Receiving yards line just 32.5 (reduced role), but TD odds underpriced

At +300 to +350, Kupp offers value as anytime TD scorer given his veteran savvy and Seattle's red-zone efficiency.

This is small-stake play (0.5-1 unit) that diversifies your Seahawks TD exposure away from just JSN and Walker.

Play: Kupp Anytime TD (+300 to +350). Small stake.

Rashid Shaheed First TD (+2000) — LOTTERY TICKET

Pure longshot play grounded in Seattle's tendency to get Shaheed involved early.

Why This Could Hit:

Caught 51-yard gain on opening drive in NFC Championship
Returned opening kickoff for TD in divisional round
Speed threat that Seattle targets on deep shots early in games

At +2000, Shaheed offers massive value as first TD scorer given his speed and Seattle's willingness to script deep shots early.

If Seattle scripts deep shot to Shaheed on opening drive (realistic given his impact in both playoff games), this bet pays 20-to-1.

Play: Shaheed First TD (+2000 at bet365). Tiny stake only (0.25-0.5 unit).

Final Seahawks Player Props Card

Here's your complete betting card for super bowl props Seattle Seahawks based on volume, value, and realistic scoring expectations.

Core Plays (1.5-2 units each):

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-113) — BEST BET
Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-136) — BEST BET
Kenneth Walker III Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110) — STRONG PLAY
Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (-180)

Secondary Plays (0.5-1 unit each):

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+106 at Caesars) — STRONG VALUE
Sam Darnold Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Sam Darnold Over 20.5 Completions (-109)
Sam Darnold Under 0.5 Interceptions (+111)
JSN 8+ Receptions (+131 at Caesars)
Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (+300)

Longshot Plays (0.25-0.5 unit each):

Rashid Shaheed First TD (+2000 at bet365)
Kenneth Walker Over 16.5 Longest Rush (-115)

Shurzy Tip: The Seahawks' offensive props revolve around JSN's elite volume (46% air yards), Darnold's efficient passing (zero playoff INTs), and Walker's workhorse role (18+ carries). With Seattle likely to score 24-27 points, focus on volume-based props and avoid low-probability novelty markets. Patriots' red-zone defense (31st in NFL) makes Seattle's TD scorers all strong value plays.

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