NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Secondary Rankings and Coverage Strengths

Among the four Super Bowl LX contenders, secondaries rank roughly Broncos and Seahawks at the top, Rams in the next tier, and Patriots as solid but most attackable in this group. This is your guide to pass defense betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

Overall Pass-Defense Hierarchy

Using 2025 pass-defense metrics (EPA/DVOA and ranking summaries):

Broncos - Best Pure Pass Defense Here

A Reddit summary of 2025 defensive ranks has Denver No. 1 in pass defense among the final four, ahead of Seattle, Rams, and Patriots.

ESPN notes they are one of the NFL's best defenses overall, led by pass rush and coverage, but with a specific weakness vs slot receivers (27th in DVOA vs slot, 7.6 yards per attempt allowed).

Seahawks - Elite Overall, Especially in Coverage Structure

MatchQuarters' season review lists Seahawks among the top defenses in overall and pass defensive EPA, alongside Texans and Vikings. Rams and Broncos also appear in that top group.

Another analytical article notes that Seahawks, Rams, Texans are the only defenses ranking top-5 in defensive DVOA, pass defense, and run defense, confirming Seattle as a top-tier coverage unit.

Rams - Strong, but a Half-Step Behind DEN/SEA in Pass D

That same DVOA cluster (top-5 overall, pass, run) includes the Rams, indicating a well-rounded defense with solid secondary play.

In the "four teams remaining" post, Rams are listed as 11th in pass defense in one ranking set, behind Denver and Seattle but still well above average.

Patriots - Good, but Weakest Pass Defense of the Four

The "four remaining teams" note shows New England as 9th in pass defense in one ranking and 15th in another, behind Denver/Seattle and just ahead of or slightly behind the Rams depending on metric.

They are strong relative to the league, but in this specific mini-pool, they're the most targetable secondary.

Shurzy Tip: Broncos are #1 in pass defense but 27th vs slot receivers. That's your exploit. Target slot WRs and TEs in the middle of the field, not boundary bombs.

Coverage Strengths and Vulnerabilities

Broncos Secondary

Strength: Top-tier outside coverage plus elite pass rush → they rank No. 1 or No. 2 in pass defense depending on source.

Weakness: ESPN flags a clear hole vs slot receivers, with Denver 27th in DVOA vs slot, allowing 7.6 YPA.

Betting Notes:

Better at limiting perimeter WR1s and deep shots. Slot WRs and TEs in the middle of the field are the best way to attack them.

In a Super Bowl vs Rams/Seahawks/Patriots, look first at slot-based WR/TE reception and yardage Overs rather than boundary explosives.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Broncos face Rams: Target Puka Nacua (slot usage) Over 92.5 Receiving Yards, Tyler Higbee Over 28.5 Receiving Yards.

If Broncos face Seahawks: Target Jaxon Smith-Njigba (slot usage) Over 88.5 Receiving Yards.

If Broncos face Patriots: Target DeMario Douglas (slot) Over receiving yards props.

Seahawks Secondary

Strength: Scheme-driven, top-5 in defensive DVOA vs both pass and run. Overall defense ranked among the very best in the league.

They pair tight coverage with a strong pass rush, helping drive No. 1 scoring defense status under Mike Macdonald.

Betting Notes:

Very tough environment for outside WR yardage Overs - you usually need volume, not just efficiency, to get there.

Opposing offenses may need to use backs/TEs and quick game to move the ball, giving some value to shorter-aDOT props rather than deep-shot ladders.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Seahawks face Rams: Stafford Under 251.5 Passing Yards gains value, target Kyren Williams Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (checkdown volume).

If Seahawks face Patriots: Maye Under 223.5 Passing Yards, target Rhamondre Stevenson Over 3.5 Receptions (checkdowns).

Rams Secondary

Strength: Balanced, top-5 in defensive DVOA including pass. Good enough to avoid obvious target flags, but not as suffocating as Denver/Seattle on the back end.

Betting Notes:

Opponent WR1s can still reach receptions and yardage Overs with enough volume, especially if the Rams' offense pushes shootout scripts.

Rams are less likely to completely erase a star WR than Broncos/Seahawks, making WR props more matchup- and script-driven than "auto-fade."

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams face Patriots: Stefon Diggs Over 59.5 Receiving Yards viable, Drake Maye Over 223.5 Passing Yards strong play.

If Rams face Broncos: Courtland Sutton Over 58.5 Receiving Yards at plus-money creates value.

Patriots Secondary

Strength: Top-10ish pass defense by several metrics; the "four remaining teams" post lists them as 9th in pass defense.

Weakness: In this group, they're clearly the least imposing secondary, sitting behind Denver, Seattle, and sometimes the Rams in pass-D ranks.

Betting Notes:

In a Super Bowl vs an elite passing offense (Rams, Seahawks), Patriots are the most likely to concede big WR games, especially if pass rush doesn't dominate.

WR1/WR2 Overs and explosive-play props are more viable against New England than against Denver/Seattle.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Patriots face Rams: Puka Nacua Over 92.5 Receiving Yards maximum confidence, Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards strong play.

If Patriots face Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 88.5 Receiving Yards, Sam Darnold Over 248.5 Passing Yards.

How to Use Secondary Strength in Super Bowl LX Betting

If Broncos Are In:

Fade some slot coverage (target slot WR/TE Overs) but respect outside CBs and overall pass D. Lean more into middle-field weapons than pure boundary bombs.

Best targets:

Slot WRs receiving yards Overs
TE receiving yards Overs (Higbee, Henry)
Underneath receptions props

If Seahawks Are In:

They bring one of the best all-around coverage units. Expect lower efficiency for opposing WRs, more checkdowns, and value in RB/TE receiving props rather than aggressive WR alt-ladders.

Best targets:

RB receiving yards Overs
TE receptions Overs
QB passing yards Unders

If Rams Are In:

Treat them as a solid but beatable secondary. WR1 can still have a day depending on pass rush and script.

Best targets:

WR1 receiving yards Overs
QB passing yards standard lines
Longest reception props

If Patriots Are In:

They're the most targetable back end. WR props and passing Overs for a Stafford/JSN-type passing attack are more likely to be live.

Best targets:

WR1 receiving yards Overs
QB passing yards Overs
Longest reception props
Multiple WR Overs (spread coverage thin)

Best Secondary-Driven Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Secondary Bet #1: Puka Nacua Over 92.5 Receiving Yards vs Patriots (-115)

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 3-4 units

Patriots' 9th-ranked pass defense (weakest in this group) vs Nacua's 129 receptions (1st in NFL) and 113.7 YPG average.

Best Secondary Bet #2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 88.5 Receiving Yards vs Broncos (-114)

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Broncos' 27th-ranked slot coverage (7.6 YPA allowed) vs JSN's 35.8% target share and slot usage.

Best Secondary Bet #3: Drake Maye Under 223.5 Passing Yards vs Seahawks (-111)

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 3-4 units

Seahawks' top-5 defensive DVOA pass defense vs Patriots' 30th-ranked OL creates sack/pressure environment.

Slot Coverage Exploitation Strategy

Broncos' Slot Weakness (27th DVOA):

Target these slot-heavy players:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (35.8% target share, heavy slot usage)
DeMario Douglas (Patriots slot)
Tyler Higbee (Rams TE in slot)

Championship Sunday Application:

When Broncos face any opponent, prioritize slot WR/TE props over boundary WR props.

Betting Action:

JSN Over 88.5 Receiving Yards vs Broncos (-114)
Tyler Higbee Over 28.5 Receiving Yards vs Broncos (+110)
DeMario Douglas Over 38.5 Receiving Yards vs Broncos (+130)

Final Thoughts

Net: in this Super Bowl field, Denver and Seattle give you reason to be cautious with opposing WR overs, the Rams are matchup-neutral, and New England is the closest thing to a "green light" passing matchup, especially if their pass rush doesn't dominate.

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