NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Special Teams Rankings and Field Position

Special teams and field position are a real edge in Super Bowl handicapping. In this final four, Seahawks clearly have the best special teams, Patriots are also top-tier, Broncos are average, and Rams are the weakest unit but enjoy strong starting field position anyway. This is your guide to special-teams betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

Special Teams Efficiency Rankings

Composite special-teams efficiency (EPA / ESPN metric):

Seahawks: Rank 1st in the NFL on both special-teams EPA and ESPN's special-teams efficiency metric

Patriots: 5th in special-teams efficiency

Broncos: 13th in special-teams efficiency

Rams: 27th in special-teams efficiency - "worst in this group," and 2 of their 3 losses were directly tied to special-teams mistakes

This means:

Seattle frequently wins the hidden ST battle (coverage, returns, kicking).

New England is also reliably good.

Denver is roughly league average.

Rams are a genuine liability on ST, despite being an elite team overall.

Shurzy Tip: Seahawks rank 1st in ST efficiency. Rams rank 27th. That's the widest gap in this Super Bowl field. In one-score games, ST mistakes decide outcomes. Bet the Seahawks ST edge.

Field Position: Average Drive Starts

Average starting field position (own-yard-line delta; higher = better):

Rams: +6.5 (rank 9th)
Patriots: +6.4 (rank 16th)
Broncos: +5.6 (rank 14th)

These numbers (from a StatMuse field-position table) show:

Rams and Patriots consistently start drives in better-than-average field position.

Broncos are also above average but not at the very top.

Seattle's precise rank isn't in that excerpt, but given their No. 1 special-teams efficiency, they contribute positively to field position as well.

Championship Sunday Translation:

Better field position = shorter drives to score. Every 5 yards of field position advantage is worth approximately 0.5 points per game.

Rams' +6.5 field position vs league average = ~0.6-0.8 points per game edge, despite their 27th-ranked ST efficiency (offense/defense creates good field position via turnovers and defensive stops).

Betting Impact for Super Bowl LX

1. Sides and Tight Spreads

Seahawks and Patriots: top-5 ST units reduce variance on returns and FGs, and help tilt short-field opportunities in their favor.

Rams: despite elite offense and defense, their 27th-ranked special teams can cost them in one-score games with missed kicks, poor coverage, or return miscues.

Broncos: ST won't usually decide games for them, but they also don't get the built-in edge Seattle and New England enjoy.

In a pick'em-type Super Bowl, that's a small but real edge toward Seahawks or Patriots vs Rams, all else equal.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Seahawks face Rams:

Seahawks 1st in ST vs Rams 27th = massive edge
Expect Seattle to win field-position battle
Seahawks +2.5 or ML gains 0.5-1 point hidden value from ST
Rams -2.5 vulnerable to ST mistakes (2 of 3 losses caused by ST errors)

If Patriots face Broncos:

Patriots 5th in ST vs Broncos 13th = moderate edge
Patriots more reliable in coverage, kicking, returns
Patriots -3 slightly favored by ST edge

2. Totals and Scoring Props

Better ST (Seahawks, Patriots) → more made FGs, better return field position, and fewer disastrous miscues, which can support higher "clean" scoring and kicker-points Overs.

Rams' weak ST → more risk of missed kicks or coverage busts. That can either suppress points (missed FGs) or spike them (short fields, return TDs) and adds variance to totals.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Seahawks face any opponent:

Seahawks' 1st-ranked ST creates reliable FG makes (Jason Myers)
Seahawks Team Total Over safer (fewer ST mistakes)
Opponent field position worse (better Seahawks coverage)

If Rams face Seahawks:

Rams' 27th-ranked ST creates volatility
Potential missed FGs (79% team FG rate)
Potential return TDs for Seattle (coverage issues)
Game total becomes higher variance (swing of 7-10 points either way)

3. Field Position and Drive Props

Strong field-position teams (Rams, Patriots, likely Seahawks) are more likely to start outside their own 25-30, shortening drives and helping team totals.

If a matchup pits a top ST team vs Rams, expect Rams' field-position advantage to be less pronounced, making it a bit harder for them to exceed very aggressive team-total numbers.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams face Seahawks:

Rams' +6.5 field position (9th) neutralized by Seahawks' 1st-ranked ST
Seahawks' coverage pushes Rams back to own 20-22 (vs usual 26-28)
Rams Team Total Under gains value (worse field position = harder to score)

Simple Hierarchy for Super Bowl LX ST/Field-Position Edge

Best special teams: Seahawks (clear No. 1), then Patriots
Middle: Broncos (around league average)
Weakest: Rams (27th ST efficiency), even though their average starting field position is strong thanks to offense/defense

When you're splitting hairs on Super Bowl LX sides and totals, treat Seahawks and Patriots as having a meaningful special-teams/field-position advantage, and Rams as the one contender that can still be tripped up by ST errors, despite their dominance in other phases.

Best Special Teams Bets for Championship Sunday

Best ST Bet #1: Seahawks ML (+120) vs Rams

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Seahawks' 1st-ranked ST vs Rams' 27th-ranked ST creates 0.5-1 point edge in one-score game. Rams lost 2 of 3 games due to ST mistakes.

Best ST Bet #2: Jason Myers (Seahawks) Over 8.5 Points (-110)

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Seahawks' elite ST creates reliable FG opportunities, Myers 85.9% FG rate (41/48 in 2025), longest 57 yards.

Best ST Bet #3: Patriots -3 (-110) vs Broncos

Confidence: Medium
Stake: 1-2 units

Patriots' 5th-ranked ST vs Broncos' 13th-ranked ST creates moderate edge in coverage, returns, kicking.

Special Teams and Game Script

Leading Teams Protect ST Advantage:

When leading by 10+ points:

Punt more frequently (protect lead)
ST coverage becomes more important
Field position battle intensifies

Championship Sunday Application:

If Seahawks lead Rams 17-7 in Q3:

Seahawks' 1st-ranked ST coverage pins Rams deep
Rams' drives start at own 15-20 (vs usual 26-28)
Seahawks 2H spread gains value

Trailing Teams Take ST Risks:

When trailing by 10+ points:

Onside kicks increase
Fake punts increase
Return aggression increases

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams trail Seahawks 21-10 in Q4:

Rams might attempt onside kick (McVay aggressive)
Rams' 27th-ranked ST creates higher risk of failed trick play
Seahawks 2H ML becomes safer

Return Game Impact

Seahawks Return Game (Elite):

Average starting field position reflects strong returns. Seahawks' 1st-ranked ST efficiency driven by returns + coverage.

Rams Return Game (Weakness):

27th-ranked ST efficiency suggests poor coverage, higher risk of allowing long returns.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Seahawks face Rams:

Expect 1-2 Seahawks returns of 25+ yards
Rams' coverage issues create short fields for Seattle
Seahawks Team Total Over gains value

Final Thoughts

When you're splitting hairs on Super Bowl LX sides and totals, treat Seahawks (1st in ST) and Patriots (5th) as having a meaningful special-teams/field-position advantage, and Rams (27th) as the one contender that can still be tripped up by ST errors, despite their dominance in offense and defense.

Special teams decides one-score games. In Super Bowl LX, that's the difference between covering and losing.

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