NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Teaser Bets and Teaser Strategy

Teaser betting is the most mathematically sound strategy in NFL wagering, allowing bettors to buy 6, 6.5, or 7 points on spreads and totals at reduced payouts while crossing critical key numbers (3, 7, 10) that determine 25% of all NFL final margins. For Super Bowl LX, the Conference Championship matchups offer exceptional teaser value through "Wong teasers" - 6-point moves that cross both 3 and 7, creating 75.8% historical win rates that exceed the 72.4% break-even hurdle. This guide explains teaser mechanics, key number strategy, and the best Championship Sunday teaser opportunities.

February 9, 2026

Teaser Basics: How They Work

What Is a Teaser Bet?

A teaser is a parlay where you buy points on spreads or totals. For a 6-point teaser at -110 odds, you move each leg 6 points in your favor in exchange for reduced payouts.

Example 6-Point Teaser:

Original: Seahawks -2.5 vs. Rams → Teased: Seahawks +3.5
Original: Patriots -4.5 vs. Broncos → Teased: Patriots +1.5
Combined: Seahawks +3.5 / Patriots +1.5 at -110 odds (risk $110 to win $100)

Key rule: All legs must win (or push) for the teaser to cash. One loss = entire teaser loses.

The Mathematics: 72.4% Hurdle Rate

To break even on a 6-point teaser at -110, each leg must win 72.4% of the time.

Break-Even Formula:

Teaser odds: -110
Implied probability per leg: 72.4%
Combined probability (2 legs): 72.4% × 72.4% = 52.4%
Payout: -110 → EV = 0% (break-even)

Sharp benchmark: Target legs that historically cover 75%+ after being teased.

Key Numbers: Why 3, 7, and 10 Matter

Key numbers are margins that occur most frequently in NFL games.

Most Common Final Margins:

3 points: 15.8% of games
7 points: 9.3% of games
10 points: 6.2% of games
Combined 3 and 7: 25.1% of games

Critical insight: Games end at 3 or 7 a combined 25.1% of the time - crossing both creates massive value.

Wong Teaser Strategy

Stanford Wong's "Basic Strategy Teaser":

Tease favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 down to -1.5 to -2.5 (crossing 3 and 7)
Tease underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 up to +7.5 to +8.5 (crossing 3 and 7)

Historical Performance:

Favorites -7.5 to -8.5 teased to -1.5 to -2.5: 76.8% win rate (218-66)
Underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 teased to +7.5 to +8.5: 75.2% win rate (374-123)
Combined Wong teasers: 75.8% win rate (592-189) - far exceeds 72.4% hurdle

The Super Bowl Spread Picks guide explains exactly how key numbers impact spread betting and teaser value.

Best Teaser Bets for Conference Championship Sunday

Best Teaser #1: 6-Point Wong on Rams +8.5

Original Line: Rams +2.5 (-110)
Teased Line: Rams +8.5 (-110)
Historical Win Rate: 75.2% (crosses 3 and 7) | EV: +2.8% per unit

The Rams are +2.5 underdogs - perfect for a Wong teaser that moves them through +3, +4, +6, +7 to +8.5, capturing four key numbers. Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Seattle and has won 4 of 6 games at Lumen Field.

Key Edges:

Rams +8.5 covers if Seattle wins by 8 or fewer (realistic outcome given split regular-season results)
Home underdogs in NFC Championship Games are 6-2 ATS since 2010
Wong teasers on +1.5 to +2.5 underdogs hit 75.2% historically

Betting Action:

Place 3-4 units on 6-point teaser: Rams +8.5 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)

Projected Outcome: Seahawks 24, Rams 20 (Rams cover +8.5) - Teaser hits

Shurzy Tip: Wong teasers aren't guessing. They're math. You're buying through the two most common margins in football. That's a 75% win rate over 500+ games. Bet accordingly.

Best Teaser #2: 6-Point Wong on Broncos +10.5

Original Line: Broncos +4.5 (-110)
Teased Line: Broncos +10.5 (-110)
Historical Win Rate: 75.2% (crosses 3 and 7) | EV: +2.8% per unit

The Broncos are +4.5 home underdogs - perfect for a Wong teaser that moves them through +3, +4, +6, +7 to +10.5, capturing four key numbers. Denver is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games as underdogs.

Key Edges:

Broncos +10.5 covers if Patriots win by 10 or fewer (includes outright Broncos wins)
Backup QB Jarrett Stidham creates conservative game scripts that keep games close
Home underdogs in AFC Championship Games are 6-2 ATS since 2010

Betting Action:

Place 3-4 units on 6-point teaser: Broncos +10.5 (DraftKings, FanDuel)

Projected Outcome: Patriots 24, Broncos 17 (Broncos cover +10.5) - Teaser hits

Best Teaser #3: 6-Point Teaser on Seahawks +3.5

Original Line: Seahawks -2.5 (-112)
Teased Line: Seahawks +3.5 (-110)
Historical Win Rate: 76.8% (crosses -3 and -7) | EV: +3.4% per unit

Teasing Seattle from -2.5 to +3.5 captures -3, -4, -6, -7, creating a massive buffer against a Rams upset. The Seahawks are 14-3 straight-up and 13-5 ATS (72.2%), the best cover rate in the NFL.

Key Edges:

Seahawks +3.5 covers if Rams win by 3 or fewer (includes outright wins and narrow losses)
Favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 teased to -1.5 to -2.5 hit 76.8% historically
Seattle at -2.5 is close enough to Wong threshold to create similar value

Betting Action:

Place 2-3 units on 6-point teaser: Seahawks +3.5 (FanDuel, DraftKings)

Projected Outcome: Rams 27, Seahawks 24 (Seahawks cover +3.5) - Teaser hits

Best Teaser #4: 6-Point Teaser on Patriots +1.5

Original Line: Patriots -4.5 (-105)
Teased Line: Patriots +1.5 (-110)
Historical Win Rate: 76.8% (crosses -3 and -7) | EV: +3.4% per unit

Teasing New England from -4.5 to +1.5 captures -3, -4, -6, -7, creating a massive buffer against a Broncos upset. The Patriots are 14-5 ATS (73.7%) and 8-0 on the road during the regular season.

Betting Action:

Place 2-3 units on 6-point teaser: Patriots +1.5 (FanDuel, DraftKings)

Projected Outcome: Broncos 21, Patriots 20 (Patriots cover +1.5) - Teaser hits

Super Bowl Teaser Trends

Super Bowl Teaser Performance (58 Games):

Favorites: 38-19 (66.7%)
Underdogs: 39-17-1 (69.6%)
Combined: 77-36-1 (68.1%)

Recent Trends (Last 23 Seasons):

Favorites: 13-10 (56.5%)
Underdogs: 20-3 (87.0%)
Combined: 33-13 (71.7%)

Key Insight: Super Bowl underdog teasers have dominated, with 87% win rate on 6-point teasers over the last 23 years.

The Super Bowl Moneyline Bets guide breaks down why underdogs perform better in high-stakes championship games.

Super Bowl LX Teaser Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks (-3) vs. Patriots (+3)

Best Teaser: Patriots +9 (6-point teaser)
Historical Win Rate: 87% (last 23 Super Bowls)
Thesis: Underdogs in Super Bowls are 20-3 (87%) on 6-point teasers

Alternate Matchup: Rams (-1.5) vs. Broncos (+1.5)

Best Teaser: Broncos +7.5 (6-point teaser)
Historical Win Rate: 87% (crosses 3 and 7)

Teaser Bankroll Management

The 5-Unit Max Rule

Sharp bettors never risk more than 5% of bankroll per teaser, even with +EV edges.

Example 100-Unit Bankroll ($5,000):

1 unit = $50
6-point teaser (2 legs): Bet 3 units ($150)
6-point teaser (3 legs): Bet 2 units ($100)
7-point teaser (2 legs): Bet 1.5 units ($75)

Shurzy Tip: Teasers are the closest thing to a "safe bet" in NFL betting when done right. 75% win rate on Wong teasers beats almost every other bet type. But you still need bankroll management because that 25% loss rate will hit you in streaks.

Final Thoughts

The four best teasers for Championship Sunday are Rams +8.5 (6-point Wong teaser, 75.2% historical win rate), Broncos +10.5 (6-point Wong teaser, 75.2% win rate), Seahawks +3.5 (6-point teaser, 76.8% win rate), and Patriots +1.5 (6-point teaser, 76.8% win rate).

Wong teasers crossing key numbers 3 and 7 are the highest-probability bets in NFL playoffs. For Super Bowl LX, expect similar teaser value on underdogs, with 87% historical win rate.

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