NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Third Down Conversion Rankings

Third down is where drives live or die, so conversion rankings tell you how likely Super Bowl LX offenses are to stay on schedule and how often defenses actually get off the field. In this four-team pool, Seahawks, Broncos, and Patriots offenses are all converting at 50% in the playoffs, Rams a bit lower, while Seattle has the best third-down defense in football. This is your guide to third-down betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

Offensive Third Down: Who Stays on the Field

Playoffs-Only Third-Down Conversion (Through Championship Round):

Seahawks: 50.0%
Broncos: 50.0%
Patriots: 32.0% overall, 28.6% in last game; but in a separate playoff table they're grouped at 50% with Denver and Seattle (small-sample playoff split)
Rams: 31.0-31.1% range in the playoff table (31.03% listed)

Key Takeaways:

In the current playoff sample, Seahawks and Broncos have been the most efficient at moving the sticks, especially in shootout-type games.

Rams sit a tier down in playoff third-down rate (~31%), which can contribute to more punts and stalled drives unless big plays or red-zone efficiency bail them out.

Patriots' regular-season/playoff blend has them around 32% in one data cut, which is middle of the pack and clearly behind the top offenses in this field.

For Betting:

Teams around 50% in the playoffs (Seahawks, Broncos) support sustained drives, higher play volume, and healthier team-total and yardage Overs if matchups don't change drastically.

Rams and Patriots at ~31-32% are more prone to drive stalls - that's a subtle lean toward fewer sustained long drives unless they're winning via explosives and red-zone excellence.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Seahawks face Rams:

Seahawks sustaining drives at 50% creates team total Over value
Rams stalling at 31% creates punt volume, supports Under

If Broncos face Patriots:

Both around 50% (in playoff samples) creates back-and-forth, supports Over
High conversion rates = more plays = more scoring opportunities

Shurzy Tip: Seahawks and Broncos converting 50% of third downs in playoffs. That's elite. 50% means half of all drives continue. Bet team total Overs when elite third-down offenses face weak third-down defenses.

Defensive Third Down: Who Gets Off the Field

Opponent Third-Down Conversion Rate, Full 2025 Season:

Seahawks: 32.93% (rank 1st in NFL)
Broncos: 35.71% (rank 6th)
Rams: 37.35% (rank 10th)
Patriots: 37.44% (rank 11th)

Implications:

Seattle's defense is best in the league at getting off the field on third down, allowing conversions on less than one-third of attempts.

Broncos are close behind (top-6), Rams and Patriots are both top-11 but a step below Denver/Seattle.

For Betting:

Against Seattle, even strong offenses will see drives die more often, which can suppress team totals and passing/rushing volume if the offense can't consistently create explosives.

Against Denver, third-down defense is also very good - sustained drive Overs for opponents need strong matchup reasons.

Against Rams/Patriots, third-down defense is still good but not elite - good offenses can still move the chains at a league-average clip.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams face Seahawks:

Rams' 31% playoff third-down rate vs Seahawks' 32.93% allowed = drive stalls, supports Under
Expect more punts, fewer sustained drives

If Patriots face Broncos:

Patriots' 50% playoff rate vs Broncos' 35.71% allowed = neutral matchup
Broncos' elite defense caps Patriots' conversion advantage

How This Shapes Super Bowl LX Angles

Once the matchup is set:

High Offensive + Weak Defensive Third Down:

Example: Seahawks O (50% playoffs) vs Patriots D (37.44% allowed)

Better case for Over and team-total Overs - expect Seattle to extend drives more often than league average.

Championship Sunday Betting:

Seahawks Team Total Over 26.5 (-110) high confidence
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (sustained drives)
Game Over 48.5 (more plays = more scoring)

High Offensive vs Elite Defensive Third Down:

Example: Broncos O (50% playoffs) vs Seahawks D (32.93% allowed, 1st in NFL)

Offense's playoff 50% rate will likely regress - lean more conservative on drive-sustaining Overs and expect more punts/FGs.

Championship Sunday Betting:

Game Under 42.5 (drive stalls)
Broncos Team Total Under 17.5 (forced punts)
Brandon McManus Over 8.5 Points (FG opportunities from stalled drives)

Two Strong Third-Down Defenses:

Example: SEA vs DEN, or DEN vs LAR

Drives are more likely to stall - that leans slightly toward full-game Unders or FG-heavier scoring distributions, unless both offenses are hyper-explosive.

Championship Sunday Betting:

Game Under (both defenses getting off field)
Kicker points Overs (FG opportunities)
Punt volume Overs (live market)

Third Down and Play Volume

High Third-Down Conversion = More Plays = More Prop Opportunities

When teams convert 50% of third downs (Seahawks, Broncos in playoffs), they:

Run 8-12 more plays per game
Create 2-3 more scoring opportunities
Generate more yardage props hitting Overs

Championship Sunday Application:

Seahawks converting 50% vs Patriots D (37.44% allowed):

Seahawks projected 68-72 plays (vs 62 average)
More plays = Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving yards Over more likely
More plays = Kenneth Walker III rushing attempts Over more likely

Low Third-Down Conversion = Fewer Plays = More Prop Unders

When teams convert 31% of third downs (Rams in playoffs), they:

Run 6-10 fewer plays per game
Create fewer scoring opportunities
Generate more yardage props missing Overs

Championship Sunday Application:

Rams converting 31% vs Seahawks D (32.93% allowed):

Rams projected 54-58 plays (vs 62 average)
Fewer plays = Puka Nacua receiving yards Under more likely
Fewer plays = Kyren Williams rushing attempts Under more likely

Best Third-Down Efficiency Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Third-Down Bet #1: Seahawks Team Total Over 26.5 (-110) vs Patriots

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 3-4 units

Seahawks' 50% playoff third-down rate vs Patriots' 37.44% allowed creates sustained drives, more plays, more scoring.

Best Third-Down Bet #2: Game Under 42.5 (-110) when Broncos face Seahawks

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 3-4 units

Broncos' 50% offense meets Seahawks' 32.93% allowed (1st in NFL) = drive stalls, punts, FGs instead of TDs.

Best Third-Down Bet #3: Rams Team Total Under 23.5 (-110) vs Seahawks

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Rams' 31% playoff third-down rate vs Seahawks' 32.93% allowed = massive drive-stalling matchup.

Third Down and Game Script

Trailing Teams Convert More Third Downs:

When trailing by 10+ points, teams become more aggressive on third down:

4th-down conversions increase 18%
Pass attempts on third-and-medium increase 22%
Overall conversion rate increases 6-8%

Championship Sunday Application:

If Broncos trail Rams 14-0 at halftime:

Broncos' third-down aggression increases
Expect more 4th-down attempts (Either Team 4th-Down Conversion Yes prop)
Jarrett Stidham passing attempts Over gains value

Leading Teams Become Conservative on Third Down:

When leading by 10+ points, teams:

Run on third-and-short 68% of time (vs 42% when tied)
Punt more frequently on 4th-and-medium
Overall conversion rate decreases 4-6%

Championship Sunday Application:

If Seahawks lead Patriots 21-7 at halftime:

Seahawks run Kenneth Walker III on third-and-short
Walker rushing attempts Over gains value
Seahawks punts Over gains value (live market)

Third Down Conversion and Player Props

High Third-Down Conversion Offense Creates:

QB passing yards Overs (more plays, more attempts)
RB rushing attempts Overs (sustained drives, more carries)
WR1 receptions Overs (more targets per drive)

Championship Sunday Examples:

Seahawks (50% conversion) vs Patriots (37.44% allowed):

Sam Darnold Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Kenneth Walker III Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)

Low Third-Down Conversion Offense Creates:

QB passing yards Unders (fewer plays, fewer attempts)
RB rushing attempts Unders (drive stalls, fewer carries)
Kicker points Overs (more FG opportunities from stalled drives)

Championship Sunday Examples:

Rams (31% conversion) vs Seahawks (32.93% allowed):

Matthew Stafford Under 251.5 Passing Yards (+110)
Kyren Williams Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts (+120)
Matt Gay Over 8.5 Points (-110)

Final Thoughts

At a high level for Super Bowl LX: Seahawks and Broncos offenses have shown the best recent third-down form, but Seattle's defense is the real third-down trump card (32.93% allowed, 1st in NFL), followed by Denver (35.71%, 6th), with Rams and Patriots good but more beatable in this specific metric.

Third-down efficiency is where drives continue or die. Stack your Super Bowl bets accordingly.

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