NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Turnover Margin Rankings and Volatility

Turnover margin tells you how many extra possessions a team gains or loses on average, and it's one of the most predictive single stats for winning NFL games. For the Super Bowl LX field, Rams are the best season-long turnover team, Patriots are mildly positive, Broncos slightly positive, and Seahawks basically even, which shapes both side bets and volatility expectations. This is your guide to turnover margin betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

2025 Turnover Margin Snapshot

Regular-Season Turnover Margin Per Game:

Rams: +0.8 per game (2nd in NFL)
Patriots: +0.2 per game (10th)
Broncos: +0.1 per game (13th)
Seahawks: 0.0 per game (14th)

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Total Giveaways (Offense):

Rams: 17 giveaways (tied 5th-fewest)

Patriots/Broncos/Seahawks sit closer to the middle in giveaways and takeaways, producing their modest margins.

Interpretation:

Rams consistently win or break even in the turnover battle - structurally lower volatility and more "clean" wins.

Patriots/Broncos have slight positive edge, but not dominant.

Seahawks are essentially neutral - their results swing more game-to-game based on turnover luck and matchup.

Shurzy Tip: Rams +0.8 turnover margin (2nd in NFL) with only 17 giveaways (5th-fewest). That's elite ball security. Bet Rams sides with confidence - they don't beat themselves.

Why Turnover Margin Matters So Much

Studies and league-wide data show:

Teams that win the turnover margin win about 69-70% of games
A +1 turnover differential yields ~69.4% win rate
+2 jumps to ~82-83%
+3 is over 90%
A full-season study found a Pearson correlation of about 0.646 between turnover differential and winning percentage, a strong relationship in football terms

For Betting, That Means:

Teams with better season-long turnover profiles (like the Rams) are more likely to justify being favorites and to convert modest spreads into wins.

But turnover margin is also volatile week-to-week, which is why dogs with decent defensive takeaways can still upset cleaner teams.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams play Patriots:

Rams' +0.8 margin suggests they win turnover battle 58-62% of time
When Rams win turnover battle, they cover spread 78% of time
Rams -2.5 becomes safer bet

If Seahawks play Rams:

Seahawks' 0.0 margin suggests coin-flip turnover battle
When Seahawks win turnover battle, they're 11-0 under Mike Macdonald
Seahawks +2.5 or ML becomes live dog option

Volatility and These Four Teams

Turnover-margin per-game table also breaks out "Last 3" and "Last 1" games:

Rams: +0.8 on season, +2.0 over last 3, +3.0 in last game

Indicates they've recently enjoyed turnover-friendly games, which may regress toward their season norm.

Broncos: +0.1 on season, +1.7 over last 3, +4.0 in last game

Massive recent spike (e.g., a 4-0 turnover game), likely unsustainable but showing their ceiling when the pass rush and coverage click.

Seahawks: 0.0 on season, +1.3 last 3, +3.0 last game

Historically neutral, but currently in a positive stretch. Their 11-0 record when they win turnover margin under Mike Macdonald underscores how much their outcomes swing with takeaways.

Patriots: +0.2 on season, +1.0 last 3, +2.0 last game

Betting Takeaways:

Rams have highest baseline stability, but recent extreme +3 game suggests some short-term hot streak that can cool.

Seahawks are most obviously volatile - when they win turnovers, they almost never lose (11-0). When they lose the turnover battle, their record drops sharply.

Broncos/Patriots have modest positive trend - not as dominant as Rams but capable of big spikes (like Denver's +4 game).

How to Use Turnover Margin in Super Bowl LX Bets

Sides and Moneylines

Rams' +0.8 margin supports their status as a deserving favorite in many potential matchups - they're structurally less likely to beat themselves.

Seahawks' neutral season margin but strong record when positive (11-0 with positive margin) means any script where you expect them to win turnovers dramatically boosts their upset/cover chances.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Seahawks face Rams:

Seahawks +2.5 (-110) becomes strong play if you project Seattle winning turnover battle
Seahawks' 11-0 record when winning turnovers makes them dangerous live dog
If Seahawks get early takeaway, hammer Seahawks ML live

Totals and Volatility

High-turnover games create short fields and volatility.

Matchups involving Seahawks and Broncos, whose recent games include big positive margins, can lean toward higher-variance totals: more short fields, defensive scores, and sudden swings.

Rams games are slightly more "controlled," which can favor favorites and standard totals rather than wild alt spreads.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Broncos face Patriots:

Both teams have recent +2.0 and +4.0 games (volatile)
Expect short fields, defensive TDs, wild swings
Lean toward alt spreads rather than main number
Consider defensive TD props (Broncos Defense to Score +140)

Props and Derivative Markets

Strong pass rush + positive margin trend (Broncos) feeds into sack, INT, and defensive TD props.

Offenses with low giveaways (Rams) justify more confidence in QB turnover Unders and WR/RB yardage Overs without as much fear of drive-killing mistakes.

Championship Sunday Application:

Rams' 17 giveaways (5th-fewest):

Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 INTs (-150) high confidence (8 INTs all season)
Puka Nacua Over 92.5 Receiving Yards safer (no drive-killing mistakes)

Broncos' +1.7 last 3 games:

Broncos Defense 2+ Sacks (+110) strong play
Opponent QB 1+ INTs gains value

Quick Ranking for Turnover Edge and Volatility

From a Betting Lens:

Turnover Edge (Season):

Rams (+0.8) - clear structural advantage, 2nd in NFL
Patriots (+0.2) - slight edge, 10th
Broncos (+0.1) - slight edge, 13th
Seahawks (0.0) - neutral, 14th

Volatility (Swinginess):

Highest: Seahawks (neutral baseline, but strong win/loss splits tied to turnover results - 11-0 when winning turnover margin)

Next: Broncos (recent +4 game and big pass-rush spikes)

Lower: Rams (consistently on the right side of turnover splits)

Patriots: Moderate

Turnover Margin and Game Script

Trailing Teams Create More Turnovers:

When trailing by 10+ points, teams:

Throw 22% more passes (INT risk increases)
Take riskier chances on 4th down (turnover on downs increases)
Force throws into tighter windows (INT rate increases 34%)

Championship Sunday Application:

If Patriots trail Rams 14-3 in Q2:

Drake Maye forced to throw more (INT risk increases)
Drake Maye 1+ INTs (+150) gains value
Rams Defensive TD (+180) becomes live

Leading Teams Protect the Ball:

When leading by 10+ points, teams:

Run 68% of plays (fumble risk minimal)
Throw shorter passes (INT rate decreases 28%)
Play more conservatively (giveaway rate drops 42%)

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams lead Seahawks 17-7 in Q3:

Rams protect ball with Kyren Williams runs
Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 INTs becomes safer
Rams turnover margin likely stays positive

Best Turnover Margin Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Turnover Bet #1: Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 INTs (-150) vs Any Opponent

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 3-4 units

Stafford threw only 8 INTs all season (7th-fewest in NFL), Rams' +0.8 margin (2nd in NFL) reflects elite ball security.

Best Turnover Bet #2: Seahawks +2.5 (-110) IF You Project Seattle Winning Turnover Battle

Confidence: High (conditional)
Stake: 2-3 units

Seahawks are 11-0 when winning turnover margin under Mike Macdonald. If weather/matchup suggests takeaways, Seahawks become dangerous dog.

Best Turnover Bet #3: Broncos Defense 1+ Turnovers (-200) vs Any Opponent

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Broncos' 68-sack defense (5th-most in NFL history) + recent +1.7 margin over last 3 games creates forced fumbles and INTs.

Turnover Regression and Betting

Rams' Recent +3.0 Game:

Rams had +3.0 turnover margin in their last game, which is 2.2 better than their season average (+0.8).

Regression Expectation:

Extreme positive games regress toward season mean 68% of time. Expect Rams' next game turnover margin closer to +0.8 than +3.0.

Betting Adjustment:

Don't stack Rams defensive TD props expecting another +3 game. Their true talent is +0.8 (elite but not +3.0 every week).

Broncos' Recent +4.0 Game:

Broncos had +4.0 turnover margin in their last game, which is 3.9 better than their season average (+0.1).

Regression Expectation:

Massive spike likely regresses heavily. Expect Broncos' next game turnover margin closer to +0.1 than +4.0.

Betting Adjustment:

Broncos' +4.0 game was outlier (likely against weak opponent or special circumstance). Don't bet Broncos defensive TD props expecting repeat performance.

Final Thoughts

For Super Bowl LX, you can safely treat the Rams as the most turnover-stable side (+ 0.8 margin, 2nd in NFL), and Seahawks/Broncos as higher-variance teams whose ATS and upset chances rise sharply if you think the matchup or weather favors them in the turnover battle.

Turnover margin wins games. When Rams win the turnover battle, they cover 78% of spreads. When Seahawks win it, they're 11-0. Bet accordingly.

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