NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Unit-by-Unit Rankings Breakdown

A comprehensive positional comparison between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots to identify the edges that will decide Super Bowl LX. Understanding these nfl unit rankings reveals where the real mismatches exist and which team has the decisive advantages across the board.

February 9, 2026

QUARTERBACK: ADVANTAGE SEAHAWKS (Significant)

Sam Darnold (Seahawks)

Regular Season: 4,048 yards, 67.7% completion, 25 TDs/14 INTs, 8.5 YPA

Playoffs: Zero INTs in last 2 games, 69.8% completion vs Rams (346 yards, 3 TDs)

Play-action mastery: 11.4 YPA on play-action (2nd in NFL), 123.1 passer rating (5th)

Supporting cast: Elite weapons (JSN, Kupp, Shaheed, Walker)

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Regular Season: 4,048 yards, 72% completion, 28 TDs/8 INTs, MVP finalist

Playoffs: 55.8% completion (down from 72%), 177.7 YPG, 15 sacks in 3 games

Dual-threat ability: 65+ rushing yards in all 3 playoff games, only reliable offense

Supporting cast: No true #1 receiver, limited weapons

Edge: Seahawks +2. Darnold has been clean and efficient in playoffs with elite weapons, while Maye's passing has cratered despite heroic rushing performances.

Shurzy Tip: Darnold went from 20 turnovers in regular season to 0 INTs in last 2 playoff games. Maye went from 72% completion to 55.8%. One QB is ascending, one is collapsing under pressure. Bet Darnold props.

RUNNING BACKS: ADVANTAGE SEAHAWKS (Moderate)

Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks)

Workhorse role: 364 yards last 4 games (91 YPG), 4 TDs in 2 playoff games

Charbonnet out: Inherited 100% of goal-line work after Charbonnet's ACL

Big-play ability: Multiple 20+ yard runs, 4.2 YPC career

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Volume: 61.5 YPG in playoffs (53, 70, 71 yards on 10, 16, 25 carries)

No TDs: Zero rushing TDs in 3 playoff games despite heavy usage

Solid but not explosive: 4.0 YPC in playoffs, workhorse role

Edge: Seahawks +1.5. Walker has been scoring and explosive while Stevenson grinds without finding the end zone.

Shurzy Tip: Walker has 4 TDs in 2 playoff games. Stevenson has 0 TDs in 3 playoff games. Volume doesn't equal production when you can't score. Bet Walker props, fade Stevenson TDs.

WIDE RECEIVERS: ADVANTAGE SEAHAWKS (Massive)

Seattle's WR Corps

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: NFL leader 1,793 yards, 36% target share, 8th all-time single season

Cooper Kupp: Veteran red-zone weapon (TD vs Rams), still effective at 33

Rashid Shaheed: Elite speed, deep threat, return specialist (95-yard KR TD vs 49ers)

New England's WR Corps

Stefon Diggs: 1,013 yards but 33 years old, coming off ACL, struggling vs elite DBs

Mack Hollins: 550 yards, inconsistent downfield threat

DeMario Douglas: 447 yards, slot role, battling hamstring injuries

Kayshon Boutte: 551 yards, big-play ability but limited usage

Edge: Seahawks +3. JSN alone is a bigger weapon than the entire Patriots WR corps combined.

Shurzy Tip: JSN (1,793 yards) vs Patriots' entire WR corps (Diggs 1,013, everyone else under 600). This isn't close. Seattle has the NFL's best receiver, Patriots have aging role players. Stack JSN props.

TIGHT ENDS: ADVANTAGE PATRIOTS (Slight)

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Red-zone dominance: 22 RZ targets (1st on team), 7 TDs in regular season

Playoff TD: 28-yard score vs Chargers, Maye's security blanket

Usage: First in route rate (70%), second in target share (17.6%)

AJ Barner (Seahawks)

Limited role: Primary TE but not featured in passing game

Short-yardage weapon: 10-of-11 on "tush push" plays

Jake Bobo scored TD in NFC Championship (backup TE)

Edge: Patriots +0.5. Henry is a legitimate red-zone weapon while Seattle's TEs are role players.

OFFENSIVE LINE: PUSH (Both Average)

Seattle's O-Line

Pass/run blocking: 13th in pass blocking win rate, 10th in run blocking win rate

Concerns: Interior vulnerability vs elite DTs like Williams/Barmore

Solid run blocking: 128.9 YPG (10th), supports Walker well

New England's O-Line

Pass/run blocking: 5th in pass blocking win rate, 16th in run blocking win rate

Improved: Went from worst in 2024 to near top-10 in 2025

Playoff struggles: Maye sacked 15 times in 3 games (5 per game)

Edge: Even. Both lines are competent but not elite; Patriots better in pass pro, Seattle better in run blocking.

DEFENSIVE LINE: ADVANTAGE SEAHAWKS (Moderate)

Seattle's DL

Leonard Williams plus Byron Murphy II: 2nd in combined pressures (91), elite interior duo

Pressure rate: 38.9% pressure rate (4th in NFL) without heavy blitzing

Run defense: 3.7 YPC allowed (1st), 28-game streak without 100-yard rusher

New England's DL

Milton Williams plus Christian Barmore: 2nd-ranked DT tandem in NFL by PFF

Elite playoff pressure: Dominated Broncos' #1 O-line in AFC Championship

Pressure rates: Barmore 16.1%, Milton Williams 13.5%

Edge: Seahawks +1. Both DLs are elite, but Seattle's overall defensive scheme (nickel/dime 92.6% of snaps) and run defense edge out New England.

Shurzy Tip: Both teams have elite DT tandems (both rank #2 in NFL). Difference is Seattle's scheme (92.6% nickel/dime) maximizes their DL's impact. Seattle has the better defense overall.

LINEBACKERS: ADVANTAGE SEAHAWKS (Significant)

Seattle's LBs

Ernest Jones IV: Second-team All-Pro, "quarterback of defense"

Elite run-stopping: 150+ tackles, critical fourth-down stop vs Rams

Versatility: Nick Emmanwori (18 QB pressures, led all DBs)

New England's LBs

Solid depth but no All-Pro talent

Limited impact in passing game compared to Seattle's hybrid defenders

Edge: Seahawks +1.5. Ernest Jones is the best LB on the field, and Seattle's hybrid defenders (Emmanwori, Witherspoon) create mismatches.

SECONDARY: ADVANTAGE SEAHAWKS (Moderate)

Seattle's DBs

Devon Witherspoon: 5th overall pick (2023), 3x Pro Bowl, second-team All-Pro

Elite ball-hawks: 25 takeaways (6th in NFL), 18 INTs

Versatility: Witherspoon can play slot, box safety, or corner

New England's DBs

Christian Gonzalez: Elite corner (6 tackles, 1 INT vs Broncos), can shadow JSN

Marcus Jones: Return specialist with pick-six vs Texans

Ball-hawking: 9 turnovers forced in 3 playoff games

Edge: Seahawks +1. Witherspoon's versatility and Seattle's disguised coverages give them a slight edge over Gonzalez's lockdown ability.

Shurzy Tip: Gonzalez is elite, but Witherspoon is more versatile (slot, box safety, corner). Seattle's secondary creates turnovers (25 in regular season) while Patriots' secondary is solid but not game-changing.

SPECIAL TEAMS: ADVANTAGE SEAHAWKS (Moderate)

Seattle's ST

Rashid Shaheed: 95-yard kickoff return TD vs 49ers in divisional round

Field position: Shaheed's speed creates explosive return potential

Jason Myers: Reliable kicker (32-of-35 FG in regular season)

New England's ST

Marcus Jones: Elite return specialist, 26-yard pick-six vs Texans

Nick Folk: Reliable kicker, converted FGs in all 3 playoff games

Solid but not explosive: Limited impact compared to Shaheed

Edge: Seahawks +0.5. Shaheed's TD upside and explosiveness give Seattle a slight edge.

COACHING: PUSH (Both First-Year, Excellent)

Mike Macdonald (Seahawks)

First year: Transformed defense from 25th (2023) to 1st (2025)

Innovative scheme: 92.6% nickel/dime rate, highest in NFL history

Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak: Elite play-action system, 11.4 YPA

Mike Vrabel (Patriots)

First year: Led team from 4-13 to Super Bowl, historic turnaround

Defensive mastermind: 8.7 PPG allowed in playoffs, best since 2000 Ravens

Player as Super Bowl champion: Won 3 rings with Patriots, elite pedigree

Edge: Even. Both coaches are first-year Super Bowl rookies who have transformed their teams. Macdonald's defensive innovation vs. Vrabel's playoff defensive dominance is a wash.

Shurzy Tip: Macdonald (defense from 25th to 1st in one year) vs Vrabel (4-13 to Super Bowl in one year). Both are coaching masterclasses. Coaching is a wash, bet on talent instead.

TOTAL UNIT RANKINGS (Out of 10)

Quarterback: Seahawks 8.5, Patriots 7.0 (SEA +1.5)

Running Backs: Seahawks 8.0, Patriots 7.0 (SEA +1.0)

Wide Receivers: Seahawks 9.5, Patriots 5.5 (SEA +4.0)

Tight Ends: Seahawks 6.5, Patriots 8.0 (NE +1.5)

Offensive Line: Seahawks 7.0, Patriots 7.0 (Even)

Defensive Line: Seahawks 9.0, Patriots 8.5 (SEA +0.5)

Linebackers: Seahawks 8.5, Patriots 6.5 (SEA +2.0)

Secondary: Seahawks 8.5, Patriots 8.0 (SEA +0.5)

Special Teams: Seahawks 7.5, Patriots 7.0 (SEA +0.5)

Coaching: Seahawks 9.0, Patriots 9.0 (Even)

TOTAL: Seahawks 81.5, Patriots 73.5 (SEA +8.0)

KEY MATCHUP ADVANTAGES

Seahawks' Biggest Edges

WR vs CB (+4.0): JSN vs Gonzalez is a mismatch; Seattle has 3 legitimate receiving threats

LB corps (+2.0): Ernest Jones plus hybrid defenders are best in game

QB efficiency in playoffs (+1.5): Darnold clean (0 INTs in 2 games) vs Maye struggling (55.8% completion)

Patriots' Biggest Edges

TE red-zone usage (+1.5): Hunter Henry is best TE on field with 22 RZ targets

QB dual-threat ability (+1.0): Maye's rushing (65+ YPG) gives Patriots dimension Seattle's Darnold can't match

Shurzy Tip: Seahawks have +8.0 unit advantage across the board. That's massive. The only positions Patriots win are TE and QB rushing. Not enough to cover +4.5 or win outright.

BETTING IMPLICATIONS

These nfl unit rankings show the Seahawks are the better team at almost every position, and the market has correctly priced them as 4.5-point favorites. The +8.0 total unit advantage is the largest in any Super Bowl matchup since 2018 (Patriots vs Rams). Seattle's dominance at WR, LB, and QB efficiency in playoffs creates multiple paths to covering -4.5, while the Patriots' limited edges at TE and QB rushing aren't enough to keep this close. This offense vs defense matchup heavily favors Seattle's balanced attack over New England's one-dimensional, Maye-dependent offense. Bet accordingly.

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