The Backup QB Problem: Why Depth Wins Futures

66 Quarterbacks Made at Least One Start

FOX Sports' backup QB ranking piece framed this reality directly: it ranked the top 10 backups and opened with the fact that 66 QBs made a start, which is why you must know who you trust off the bench.

It also highlighted Joe Flacco as its No. 1 backup entering 2024, noting he won Comeback Player of the Year in 2023 after coming off the couch midseason and leading the Browns to the playoffs when Deshaun Watson got injured.

That's a perfect example of "depth wins futures": Cleveland didn't just survive a QB injury. It stayed alive as a playoff-level outcome because the backup play was competent enough to keep the season's floor from collapsing.

Why 66 QBs starting matters:

• Huge chunk of league plays "Plan B quarterback football"
• Futures bets aren't just on QB1
• Bets on how organization survives chaos
• Joe Flacco example: led Browns to playoffs off couch

Before Sunday hits, hit the Content Lab. Fast reads. Smarter picks.

What Is the "Backup QB Problem" From a Betting Standpoint?

1. Futures assume a baseline that often includes QB health: Most win totals, division odds, and Super Bowl odds are built on a projected starter playing most of the season. That's not a conspiracy. It's just how projections work. But when you accept that dozens of teams will start multiple QBs, you realize many futures prices are secretly fragile.

2. Backups create nonlinear downside: If you have an elite QB and a replacement-level backup, one injury doesn't just cost you "a little." It can flip your offensive identity (you become run-heavy), your third-down conversion rate, your explosive-pass rate, and your turnover profile. That kind of shift is why a "top contender" can become a .500 team instantly. Futures are pricing the contender version, but the real distribution includes the "backup weeks" version.

3. Books and bettors often overreact to the name, not the fit: A famous backup (veteran with a resume) can move lines, but fit matters just as much: Is the coordinator willing to adapt? Is the offensive line strong enough to protect a slower processor? Does the backup's skill set match the base offense? The public tends to price the backup as a single number ("good" or "bad"), but the reality is more matchup and scheme dependent. That's where a bettor can still create edge in weekly markets and in futures hedging.

The backup QB problem:

• Futures assume QB health (baseline fragile)
• Backups create nonlinear downside (contender to .500 instantly)
• Books and bettors overreact to name, not fit

Think you can call this week's chaos? Jump into Gridzy. It's free. It's quick. And it's built for Sunday flexes.

Why Does Depth Win Futures Specifically?

Because futures are about staying in the race long enough for your top-end outcomes to remain available. Most Super Bowl winners aren't just "best team in Week 6." They're teams that:

• Avoid catastrophic injury spirals
• Maintain competence through inevitable roster churn
• Peak late

Backup QB quality is one of the few depth factors that can single-handedly prevent a season from falling off a cliff.

Why depth wins futures:

• Stay in race long enough for top-end outcomes
• Avoid catastrophic injury spirals
• Maintain competence through roster churn
• Backup QB prevents season from falling off cliff

Don't let the hype win. Check the Content Lab first. We break down the matchups so you don't have to.

How to Evaluate Backup QB Depth Like a Futures Bettor

Track the "backup is playable" tier: FOX Sports' list is useful as a starting map of which backups are perceived as trustworthy, with Flacco as a lead example and an explicit mention of his ability to "lead Indianapolis to some wins" if needed. You don't have to agree with every ranking. You just need to recognize that the market itself believes certain backups can preserve a team's baseline.

Price the backup through the schedule: A backup starting Weeks 4 to 6 against weak defenses is survivable. A backup starting Weeks 15 to 18 in division games is a futures killer. This is why teams that can survive a short stretch matter so much: they keep the season's optionality alive.

Pair backup QB depth with defensive floor: The easiest way to survive backup QB football is defense. A strong defense can turn "backup QB" into "don't lose the game" rather than "win a shootout." This matters for division futures: a team can win a division at 10-7 with a midseason backup stretch if the defense keeps the floor high.

Use depth as a tiebreaker in tight futures tiers: If two teams have similar Super Bowl prices, the one with better QB2 stability is often the better long-run portfolio pick, because the distribution of outcomes is less fragile.

How to evaluate backup QB depth:

• Track "backup is playable" tier (FOX Sports rankings)
• Price backup through schedule (Weeks 4-6 survivable, 15-18 killer)
• Pair backup depth with defensive floor
• Use depth as tiebreaker in tight futures tiers

Waiting for kickoff? Piggy Arcade has this week's top casino picks lined up.

The Bottom Line on Backup QB Depth

The NFL is no longer a league where you can treat "starting QB" as a constant. If 66 quarterbacks are starting in a season, the "backup QB problem" isn't an edge case. It's the environment. And in that environment, depth doesn't just win games, it protects futures. FOX Sports ranked top 10 backups, opened with 66 QBs made at least one start. Joe Flacco No. 1 backup, won Comeback Player of Year 2023, led Browns to playoffs off couch when Watson injured. 

Futures assume QB health baseline (secretly fragile), backups create nonlinear downside (contender to .500 instantly), books and bettors overreact to name not fit. Depth wins futures because teams stay in race long enough for top-end outcomes, avoid catastrophic injury spirals, maintain competence. Evaluate backup depth: track playable tier, price through schedule, pair with defensive floor, use as tiebreaker in tight futures tiers.