The First Coach Fired Market: Coldest Job in Football

The Pete Carroll Example: 2-14 and 74 Years Old

To ground this in something concrete rather than vibes: Sportsbook Review used the Kalshi prediction market to price "who gets fired first" and cited Pete Carroll as the favorite at a 62% chance to be shown the door after Las Vegas fell to 2-14 under the 74-year-old coach.

That single data point tells you what the coldest job looks like: a high-profile coach, a disastrous record, and a franchise environment where change is viewed as likely rather than controversial.

The Pete Carroll template:

• 2-14 record (disastrous)
• 74 years old (age becomes narrative)
• High-profile coach (public embarrassment)
• Franchise environment where change is likely

Now, even if you don't want to treat that specific Carroll snapshot as your anchor for the next season (because coaching markets shift fast), it gives you the template for "coldest job" analysis.

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The Four Criteria for Coldest Job

1. Ownership impatience plus public embarrassment: A 2-14 season is a "something is broken" public signal, and that's exactly what owners react to most quickly because it affects ticket demand and brand credibility.

2. A roster that doesn't offer easy fixes: Some teams can plausibly say "we were hurt, we'll bounce back." Others have structural problems (QB uncertainty, poor line play, cap issues) that make a quick turnaround less credible. Those are the franchises where a coach becomes the easiest lever to pull.

3. The "expectation gap" is larger than the win gap: A coach on a rebuilding team can go 4-13 and survive if the organization sold patience. A coach on a team that expected 9-10 wins can go 6-11 and get fired if the season feels like collapse. The market is constantly trying to price that gap, not just the record.

4. Timing incentives create early-season danger: First coach fired is not Black Monday. It's often a midseason move to "save the season," reset the locker room, or signal accountability. If a team starts 1-5 and looks lifeless, the coach becomes a sacrificial piece.

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Three Danger Signals That Show Up Early

A disciplined way to bet or write about this market is to focus on three "danger signals" that show up early:

Point differential and non-competitive losses: Blowouts are owner-anger accelerants. If a team is losing by 20+ points regularly, the coach is in danger.

QB controversy: If the offense is collapsing and the QB situation is messy, the coach becomes the face of it. QB controversy is often the trigger for coaching changes.

Visible culture fractures: Public sideline conflicts, effort questions, or "anonymous quotes" stories. When the locker room breaks publicly, the coach is done.

The three danger signals:

• Point differential and non-competitive losses (blowouts)
• QB controversy (offense collapsing, messy QB situation)
• Visible culture fractures (public conflicts, effort questions)

You can also use "jobs already branded as unstable" as a proxy. Sportsbook Review's framing around the Raiders under Carroll implicitly treats that environment as unstable enough that a firing is not only possible but expected.

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Jobs Already Branded as Unstable

In content terms, that's the coldest job: the one where the coach doesn't just need to win. He needs to win immediately to thaw the seat.

Jobs already branded as unstable are the coldest because the narrative is already written. The coach is fighting uphill against media, fans, and ownership expectations.

Unstable job characteristics:

• Coach doesn't just need to win, needs to win immediately
• Narrative already written (coach on hot seat)
• Fighting uphill against media, fans, ownership
• One bad stretch and coach is gone

If you're betting "first coach fired," look for the job that's already unstable. Not the worst team. The most unstable environment.

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How to Identify the Next Cold Job

Don't list ten names. Pick one franchise archetype (like the Raiders example), explain why it's structurally cold, and then teach readers how to identify the next cold job by looking at ownership behavior and expectation gaps, not just wins and losses.

The framework:

• Look for ownership impatience (public embarrassment)
• Roster with no easy fixes (QB uncertainty, cap issues)
• Expectation gap larger than win gap (collapse vs rebuild)
• Early-season danger signals (blowouts, QB controversy, culture fractures)

The coldest job is the one with the worst mix of pressure, instability, and low-margin roster reality. Not the worst record. The worst environment.

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The Bottom Line on First Coach Fired

"First coach fired" is an organizational behavior question, not a football question. The coldest job isn't the worst team. It's the team with the worst mix of pressure, instability, and low-margin roster reality. Pete Carroll at 2-14 with Raiders was 62% favorite to be fired first: high-profile coach, disastrous record, franchise environment where change was likely. The four criteria: ownership impatience plus public embarrassment, roster with no easy fixes, expectation gap larger than win gap, timing incentives create early-season danger. The three danger signals: point differential and non-competitive losses, QB controversy, visible culture fractures. Look for jobs already branded as unstable, where coach needs to win immediately to thaw the seat.

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