The Most Overhyped Team Every Offseason

The Chicago Bears Are the Cleanest Overhyped Profile

For 2026 specifically, the early futures board and early handle commentary points to the Chicago Bears as the cleanest "overhyped-by-default" profile.

They're sitting at +2500 to win Super Bowl LXI on the early BetMGM board, which puts them in the same pricing neighborhood as legitimate elite-tier contenders (not favorites, but clearly respected).

And more importantly, BetMGM's early money list has the Bears near the top. VegasInsider reported the top five in early Super Bowl futures money were Broncos, Bears, Chiefs, Seahawks, Bills.

Why Chicago showing up high in early money matters:

• High in money, not just ticket count (big bets, not casual bets)
• Market already crowded (odds you're paying premium, not finding value)
• Priced at +2500 ahead of Bengals and Cowboys at +3000
• Narrative velocity driving price as much as true probability

When a team is showing up high in money (not just ticket count), that's a sign the market is already crowded, which increases the odds you're paying a premium rather than finding value.

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Why Chicago Gets Overhyped Structurally

The "ascending team" tax: Bettors love buying the next leap because it feels like you're early to a story. Teams coming off a season where they were "close" (or had a playoff moment that looks like a stepping-stone) become magnets for optimistic priors. On the VegasInsider board, the Bears are priced ahead of teams with more established year-over-year floors like the Bengals and Cowboys at +3000, which is exactly the kind of ordering that can be driven by narrative velocity as much as true probability.

The "QB leap plus coordinator fix" fantasy bundle: This is the single most common offseason overhype engine. Fans and bettors tend to believe player development is linear ("Year 2 or 3 means jump"), and they over-credit coordinator changes as if scheme alone fixes protection, injuries, and depth. That bundle is powerful enough to inflate prices by a tier because it's coherent and easy to sell in one sentence on TV.

The "new toys" bias: Offseason is the season of additions. Draft picks and free agents are "pure upside" in the public mind, while departures and aging curves are "details." That asymmetry pushes prices toward optimism, especially for teams with flashy skill-position headlines.

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Overhype Doesn't Mean "Wrong"

Now, why the Bears (or any overhyped team) can still be a good bet anyway:

Overhype is not the same as "wrong." It simply means the bar is higher. If you believe Chicago's true Super Bowl probability is meaningfully higher than implied by +2500, then the price is fine.

But the default bettor mistake is assuming that because a team is exciting, it must be a value. Exciting teams are often the worst values, because excitement is exactly what the sportsbook is pricing.

When overhyped teams can still be good bets:

• Your thesis: Chicago's true probability higher than +2500 implies
• You have specific reason market is underestimating them
• You're betting on concrete improvement, not excitement
• You're not just buying "they're fun to imagine"

Exciting teams are often the worst values because excitement is exactly what books price.

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How to Use the "Overhyped Team" Concept

A more nuanced way to use the "overhyped team" concept is to shift from "fade them" to "fade the specific markets where hype is most toxic." In practice:

Super Bowl futures are where hype gets concentrated earliest (long hold, high public demand). Chicago at +2500 is precisely the kind of number that can look tempting in February and then look "obvious" in August, meaning you rarely get a better price later, but you also rarely get a clean reason to believe it's mispriced now.

Division and conference odds can be where you find better discipline. Instead of paying for the whole championship tail, you can bet "make playoffs," "win division," or season win totals once those markets are fully shaped by schedule and roster clarity.

Where to avoid overhype tax:

• Super Bowl futures (hype concentrated earliest)
• Long hold, high public demand markets
• Chicago at +2500 looks tempting in February, obvious in August
• Rarely get better price later, rarely get clean reason it's mispriced now

Where to find better discipline:

• Division and conference odds (less hype tax)
• "Make playoffs" or "win division" (more information before bet)
• Season win totals (shaped by schedule and roster clarity)

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The Denver Broncos Are the Other Overhyped Candidate

The other overhyped candidate is the Denver Broncos, not because they're a bad team, but because they're absorbing enormous early money.

BetMGM's early money list has Denver at the very top, and they're also No. 2 in ticket count behind Seattle.

Denver is priced at +2000 to win Super Bowl LXI, which is a strong number for a team that lost the AFC Championship 10-7 at home.

Why Denver absorbing enormous early money matters:

• Denver at very top of early money list
• No. 2 in ticket count behind Seattle
• Priced at +2000 after losing AFC Championship 10-7 at home
• Money doesn't automatically mean hype, but price has less room to be generous

Money doesn't automatically mean hype, but it does mean the price has less room to be generous.

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The Bottom Line on Overhyped Teams

The most overhyped team is usually the one that is (a) priced like it has already arrived, and (b) already drawing a disproportionate share of early futures money. On that lens, Chicago (and possibly Denver) fits the definition right now. Chicago at +2500 is near the top of early money, priced ahead of Bengals and Cowboys at +3000. Denver at +2000 is absorbing enormous early money, No. 1 in money and No. 2 in tickets. Both are priced like they've already arrived, which means you're paying for excitement, not finding value.

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