The Thanksgiving Games: Tradition or Trap?

Favorites Go 35-13 ATS on Thanksgiving

The trap is that bettors often approach Thanksgiving with a "party card" mindset: multiple bets, multiple parlays, lots of action because the games are on all day.

That behavior increases exposure to vig and to correlated outcomes you didn't intend.

Public-betting resources emphasize how the public gravitates toward favorites and popular teams, and Thanksgiving is a perfect environment for that bias because the games are communal and narrative-heavy.

Why Thanksgiving is a trap:

• Favorites 35-13 ATS (72.9%) on Thanksgiving
• Short-rest games favor favorites (105-79-4 ATS, 57.1%)
• "Party card" mindset (multiple bets, parlays)
• Increases exposure to vig and correlated outcomes

What's interesting is that Thanksgiving isn't uniformly "favorites and overs."

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Thanksgiving Night Games Are Different

That same Thanksgiving trends piece noted that in Thanksgiving night games (a smaller sample since the primetime slot started in 2006), favorites went 12-2 ATS and unders went 10-4 (71.4%), while afternoon games didn't show the same under pattern.

It also flagged divisional Thanksgiving night games as particularly under-leaning (6-2 under).

The sharp content angle here is: Thanksgiving can be both "favorite-friendly" and "night-under-friendly," which means simplistic "holiday overs" assumptions can be wrong depending on kickoff window.

Thanksgiving night games:

• Favorites 12-2 ATS (since 2006)
• Unders 10-4 (71.4%)
• Divisional night games 6-2 under
• Afternoon games don't show same under pattern

So is it tradition or trap? It's both. It's tradition because the league schedules familiar brands and rivalries, and people want action. It's a trap when you let that tradition override the two things that matter most: price and structure.

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Actionable Discipline for Thanksgiving Betting

Bet fewer games, but bet them more intentionally. Standalone slates encourage overbetting.

Don't blindly fade or follow the trends. Use them as alerts. If the market is pricing a night total aggressively low because everyone expects "Thanksgiving under," you may be paying for the trend.

Treat Thanksgiving like prime time: check bet% vs money% and be cautious about the "TV side" premium.

Actionable Thanksgiving discipline:

• Bet fewer games, more intentionally (standalone slates encourage overbetting)
• Use trends as alerts, not rules (market may already be pricing them)
• Treat like prime time (check bet% vs money%, cautious about "TV side")

Thanksgiving edges exist, but they're rarely about loving the holiday narrative. They're about understanding that the holiday creates predictable betting behavior—and predictable behavior is exactly what sportsbooks price.

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The Bottom Line on Thanksgiving Games

Thanksgiving is a tradition for fans, a trap for many bettors. Combines standalone-game attention, holiday emotion, short-rest schedule spot. Favorites 35-13 ATS (72.9%) on Thanksgiving, short-rest games favor favorites 105-79-4 ATS (57.1%). "Party card" mindset increases exposure to vig and correlated outcomes. Thanksgiving night games are different: favorites 12-2 ATS, unders 10-4 (71.4%), divisional night games 6-2 under. 

Afternoon games don't show the same pattern. Thanksgiving can be both "favorite-friendly" and "night-under-friendly," simplistic "holiday overs" assumptions wrong depending on the kickoff window. Actionable discipline: bet fewer games more intentionally, use trends as alerts not rules, treat like prime time and check bet% vs money%. Thanksgiving edges exist, but they're about understanding holiday creates predictable betting behavior, and predictable behavior is exactly what sportsbooks price.

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