Tips for Betting on the Long Shot in the NFL

Spot the Value in NFL Odds by Week

Each week, oddsmakers drop fresh lines. And with those lines come opportunities. While most bettors chase favorites, smart players look for value in the underdogs—especially the road ones.

Let’s say the Bears are +7.5 underdogs on the road against a top-tier defense. Most of the betting public sees a blowout coming. But you know better. Maybe the starting QB just returned. Maybe the favorite’s defense is banged up. That’s a classic long shot spot.

Watch for line movement and where the money’s going. If the point spread betting shifts against the underdog even as bets flood in on the favorite, that’s your cue. It’s the kind of sharp signal buried under the public noise.

Don’t Sleep on the NFL Betting Props

Long shot bets don’t stop at spreads and totals. NFL betting props are a goldmine for bold plays.

Take touchdown scorer props. Every book’s got a big list of names, but most folks scroll straight to the stars. Instead, look for that backup tight end who gets red zone targets. The third-string back who returns kicks. One play, one break, and boom—cash.

In last year’s playoffs, a guy named Travis Homer cashed as first TD scorer at +3200. Most people didn’t even know he was active. That’s long shot energy.

Mix props into your card for high-risk, high-reward fun that doesn’t hinge on a full game outcome.

Ride the NFL Betting Public—Then Fade Them

Everyone’s got that one buddy who hammers the favorite every week. And loses every week.

The NFL betting public loves winners. The teams with the hype. The quarterbacks in every highlight. That creates inflated lines and bad value.

Let’s say 80% of bets are on the Chiefs to cover -10. The NFL odds in Vegas haven’t budged. That’s a red flag. Books are daring you to take the favorite. You? You take the long shot. That’s a savvy fade.

In games where the public piles in heavy, contrarian betting pays off. Especially in primetime when casual bettors swing the lines more than they should.

Know the Futures Market—and Strike Early

Futures aren’t just about picking the Super Bowl champ. They’re about timing. Find a long shot early, and you get max value.

Think: betting the Texans to win the division before their rookie QB shows up. Or grabbing MVP odds on a dark horse after a hot preseason game.

The trick is to spot upside before the NFL odds and predictions catch up. That’s how bettors locked in Joe Burrow at +8000 his rookie year and laughed all the way to the bank.

Watch training camp buzz. Beat reports. Schedule strength. Then place your futures before Week 1 when everyone else catches on.

Underdogs Win—But Not Always the Game

Here’s the thing. Long shots don’t need to win outright. That’s where nfl betting spreads come in.

Let’s say the Jets are +9.5 underdogs. Everyone’s fading them hard. But you notice their defense is top five. The weather sucks. The over under is low.

That’s a grind-it-out game. Perfect for an underdog cover.

Underdogs don’t win all the time, but they cover way more than people think. Especially when they’re undervalued, ignored, or just plain ugly to bet on. That’s why you bet them.

And when they do win outright? That’s bragging rights.

Use NFL Odds and Scores to Spot Patterns

Betting smart means tracking how NFL teams are ranked and how they perform against the number.

Is a team always covering as an underdog? Do they start slow but crush the second half spread? Look at the NFL odds and scores week to week. Find those habits.

Example: In 2023, the Giants were 10-2 ATS as underdogs. That’s not luck. That’s a system waiting to be bet.

These little trends hide in plain sight. But if you watch close—or just let our toolset do it for you—you’ll find them.

Smash the Overreaction Window

Every Monday, the public reacts. A team gets blown out. A quarterback throws four picks. Suddenly, the NFL odds swing hard the other way.

That’s your long shot opening.

NFL betting is emotional. The books know it. So when a team looks awful on Sunday, but gets a juicy underdog line on Thursday, ask yourself: was that just one bad game?

Overreaction lines are where the value lives. Take the team everyone’s writing off, and you’ll be the one laughing when they bounce back big.

Wrap It Up: Trust the Ugly Picks

Betting the long shot in the NFL means trusting the bet that makes you squirm. The one your buddy Dave says is dumb. The team you almost skip.

But that’s where the edge is.

Look for value. Fade the noise. Trust the ugly dogs. Mix in some props and futures. And always—always—shop lines.

Check out our full betting toolset to start spotting profitable lines.