UFC Betting Explained: Best Grapplers in UFC History

Certain grapplers changed how UFC fights are won, and if you're still betting like grappling is optional, your bankroll is learning the hard way why it's not. Khabib Nurmagomedov, Charles Oliveira, Demian Maia, Georges St-Pierre, and early pioneers like Royce Gracie are consistently ranked among the greatest MMA grapplers ever, thanks to dominant control, historic submission numbers, and game-changing effectiveness on the mat. For bettors, these fighters embody different types of grappling dominance: relentless top control, pure submission hunting, or complete MMA wrestling and BJJ blends.

Khabib Nurmagomedov: Template for Control-Dominant Grappling

Khabib is routinely placed at or near the top of "best grapplers in MMA history" lists, with a background in wrestling, judo, and combat sambo and an undefeated 29-0 record in MMA. His game combined high-efficiency takedowns with suffocating top pressure and "Dagestani handcuff" control positions that kept opponents pinned while he struck or advanced position. He also owns one of the highest single-fight takedown counts in UFC history: 21 takedowns in one bout, still the all-time record.

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Fighters & Fighting Styles

Betting implications on Khabib-style wrestlers: Elite wrestlers with chain takedowns and top control dramatically suppress opponents' striking volume and finishing chances, making their own moneylines more robust than "standard" favorites. The opponent can't strike if they're on their back.

Their fights skew strongly toward inside the distance via ground-and-pound or submission against overmatched grapplers, and toward clear 30-25 or 30-26 decisions against durable but outmatched opponents who survive but never threaten.

For current Dagestani-style wrestlers (elite sambo wrestlers with high takedown rates like Islam Makhachev), over-rounds can still be live in five-round fights, but opponent knockout or submission props are usually overvalued narratives rather than realistic paths. The striker isn't knocking out someone they never hit clean.

Example: Dagestani wrestler versus striker. Market prices wrestler -200 (66.7% implied). But wrestler's true win probability is closer to 80% because they control where the fight happens completely. Betting wrestler straight is value, but betting "wrestler by decision" at +150 when true probability is 50%+ offers even more value because the market overprices submission and underprices grinding decisions.

Shurzy Tip: When you see a Dagestani wrestler with a sambo background, bet them and bet Over rounds. They win by suffocating control, not quick finishes. The market expects violence. Reality is 25 minutes of exhausting domination.

Read more: Grappling Styles (BJJ, Wrestling, Judo, Sambo)

Charles Oliveira & Demian Maia: Submission Specialists

Charles Oliveira is statistically the most accomplished submission artist in UFC history. He holds the all-time record for submission wins in the promotion (17 and counting), as well as the most finishes overall and a long streak of submissions across multiple divisions. Oliveira has tapped opponents with a wide variety of techniques: rear-naked chokes, guillotines, anaconda, armbars. Versatility and opportunism define his game.

Demian Maia is frequently ranked just behind Oliveira among pure BJJ grapplers, with 11 UFC submission wins and a reputation for back-takes and rear-naked chokes against high-level opposition. Analyses of submission artists note Maia's unusual ability to take the back from many positions and finish with the same high-percentage choke over and over and over.

Betting implications on submission specialists: For Oliveira and Maia archetypes, submission props carry far more of their true win equity than standard inside-the-distance lines. Oliveira in particular has an outlier proportion of wins by submission compared with knockouts or decisions. He's not grinding you out. He's tapping you.

Against wrestlers who are comfortable grappling but have shown defensive lapses, submission lines are often severely mispriced because markets label the wrestler "the grappler" and underestimate the risk of getting caught in transitions. Both can grapple, but only one is hunting submissions constantly.

Against elite anti-grapplers with strong positional awareness, these fighters can be dragged into slower decision losses. Overs and "opponent by decision" gain value when the matchup strongly suppresses their back-take or front-headlock entries.

Example: Oliveira versus wrestler. Market prices Oliveira knockout at +300, submission at +250, decision at +400. But Oliveira's true method distribution is submission 60%, decision 30%, knockout 10%. Betting submission at +250 when true probability is 60% (fair odds approximately +67) offers massive value because the market spreads his win equity too evenly across all methods.

Shurzy Tip: When a submission specialist with 10+ submission wins faces a wrestler with average submission defense, bet submission at +300 or higher. Market sees "two grapplers" and prices for decision. Reality is the submission specialist taps the wrestler.

Read more: Striking Styles (Muay Thai, Boxing, Kickboxing)

Georges St-Pierre: MVP of MMA Wrestling

Georges St-Pierre (GSP) is repeatedly cited as one of the greatest MMA grapplers ever, despite not being a lifetime wrestler. His technical mastery of MMA takedowns, timing, and top control defined his championship run. He holds the record for most takedowns in UFC history and used a mix of level changes, timing-based doubles, and reactive shots to dictate where fights took place.

Analysts often point to him as the blueprint for "MMA wrestling": striking to set up takedowns, passing guard safely, and winning rounds with positional dominance rather than hunting constant submissions. Safe, smart, dominant.

Betting implications on GSP-style champions: Elite wrestling plus conservative top control equals high decision probability. Many of his title defenses went to the cards with lopsided control stats but limited finishing attempts because finishing attempts create risk, and risk is unnecessary when you're already winning.

Modern GSP-style fighters (high takedown volume, limited submission aggression) tilt markets toward:

• Strong "by decision" pricing as the most realistic win condition
• Overs and "fight goes the distance" even as sizable favorites
• Method of Victory splits that overprice knockout and underprice decision

When such fighters face dangerous submission artists off their back (Oliveira or Maia types), the decision versus submission split tightens, and generic inside-the-distance prices can become inefficient relative to method splits.

Example: GSP-style wrestler versus durable opponent. Market prices wrestler -250 (71.4% implied), decision at +180 (35.7% implied). But wrestler's decision probability is actually 60%+ because they don't chase finishes. Betting decision at +180 when true probability is 60% (fair odds approximately +67) offers massive value.

Read more: Hybrid Styles (MMA-Integrated Systems)

Royce Gracie and Early-Generation BJJ Pioneers

Historical lists almost always include Royce Gracie among the best grapplers in UFC history due to his dominance in the earliest UFC tournaments, where he won three of the first four events, often by submission over much larger wrestlers and strikers. His early UFC success proved that specialized grappling, especially BJJ, could neutralize size and striking advantages completely.

From a modern betting standpoint, early Gracie-era fights don't map cleanly onto current markets (no time limits, different rules), but they matter conceptually. They explain why modern odds often start from the assumption that grappling dominance is the default path to reliable winning, and striking-only fighters must prove their defensive grappling works.

Data analyses of modern UFC still show grapplers outperforming pure strikers at the top level when they can reliably enforce their game. Royce Gracie proved this 30 years ago. The market still forgets it every time a popular striker fights a boring wrestler.

Other Elite Grapplers: Werdum, Chimaev, Modern Hybrids

Rankings of all-time MMA grapplers also highlight fighters such as Fabrício Werdum, Jacaré Souza, and newer names like Khamzat Chimaev, who blend world-class grappling with enough striking to force opponents into bad choices.

Werdum brought ADCC-level BJJ into heavyweight MMA and submitted elite opponents while also developing functional Muay Thai that made takedowns easier to secure.

Jacaré combined high-caliber BJJ with powerful top control and judo-influenced takedowns that created immediate dominant positions.

Khamzat Chimaev's recent title-fight performance featured 12 of 17 takedowns (70.5% success) and over 21 minutes of control time. Numbers described as "wrestling clinic" level and among the highest takedown totals ever in a UFC title bout. Comparisons in that analysis explicitly place his control metrics alongside or above those of Khabib and GSP in individual fights.

Betting implications for modern hybrids:

Werdum/Jacaré archetypes: High submission equity and enough striking to enter exchanges safely. Against non-elite grapplers, submission props plus inside-the-distance can both be live. Against strong wrestlers, look more toward decisions and slower fights.

Chimaev-style pressure wrestlers with ground-and-pound and opportunistic submissions: All-around finishers whose dominant grappling drives both knockout and submission paths. Markets may overfocus on "submission" when they actually finish via ground strikes frequently as well. Inside-the-distance often better captures their true finishing spread than a single method line.

Example: Chimaev versus striker. Market prices submission at +200, knockout at +300, decision at +150. But Chimaev finishes by both submission and ground-and-pound with similar frequency. Betting inside-the-distance at -120 when true probability is 65% offers better value than splitting between submission and knockout separately.

Read more: How Styles Clash in UFC Fights

How to Turn "Best Grappler" Knowledge into Bets

Best-grappler lists and records (like Oliveira's all-time submission mark, Maia's rear-naked choke mastery, GSP's takedown record, Khabib's control metrics) are more than trivia. They point to structural tendencies you can apply to similar archetypes on current cards.

Control-Dominant Wrestlers/Sambo Fighters (Khabib/GSP/Chimaev)

Expect: High decision probability versus durable opponents and dominant inside-the-distance versus overmatched ones.

Betting angles: "By decision" and over-rounds often more positive expected value than knockout-only props unless opponent has known quitting tendencies or cardio collapse history.

Submission Specialists (Oliveira/Maia)

Expect: Submission props disproportionately carry win equity. Inside-the-distance often undervalues how submission-heavy their finish distributions are.

Betting angles: Overs or opponent-by-decision gain appeal when facing strong positional grapplers who rarely expose limbs or neck.

Old-School BJJ-First with Limited Wrestling

Expect: Extremely dangerous if they can get the fight down. Extremely limited if they can't.

Betting angles: Polarized outcomes. Live submission dogs versus mediocre wrestlers, but poor favorites versus elite anti-grapplers with defensive wrestling.

Modern Hybrids

Expect: Grappling is their offensive backbone, but they can strike enough to keep opponents guessing, increasing takedown and submission opportunities.

Betting angles: Look for misalignment where the market prices them as primarily strikers or primarily wrestlers when their real edge is the combination creating unpredictability.

Shurzy Tip: When you see a grappler with 10+ submission wins, don't bet them straight at -200. Bet their specific method of victory where the real value lives. Markets spread win equity too evenly. You capitalize on the concentration.

Read more: Best Strikers in UFC History

Conclusion

The "best grapplers" in UFC history show how different grappling archetypes win, how often they finish, and how they interact with strikers and other grapplers. Using those patterns, backed by record books and analytics on takedowns, submissions, and control, you can structure moneyline, method-of-victory, and total bets that reflect how real fights are actually decided on the mat.

Khabib showed that suffocating control wins championships. Oliveira showed that submissions work at the highest level. GSP showed that safe wrestling wins decisions. Royce Gracie showed that grappling beats striking when enforced properly.

Stop betting highlight reels. Start betting grappling dominance. That's where the money lives.

Read more: Style Matchups That Create Betting Value

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