UFC Betting Explained: Striking Styles (Muay Thai, Boxing, Kickboxing)

Here's what nobody tells you about betting strikers: everyone does it, and everyone loses money doing it. Knockouts are sexy. Highlight reels trend on Twitter. So casual bettors throw money at "the guy with the big punch" and wonder why their bankroll evaporates faster than their confidence. The truth? Within striking itself, there are three completely different games being played: boxing, kickboxing, and Muay Thai. Each one beats certain styles and loses to others in predictable ways.

Boxing: Precision, Volume, Footwork

Boxing in MMA is deceptively simple. Just hands, no kicks. But calling it "simple" is like calling chess "just moving pieces." Boxers win through footwork, head movement, combination punching, and tempo control that makes their opponents miss until they're too tired to care.

Core principles: Hand strikes only, head movement that makes opponents miss, footwork that creates angles and generates power, combination punching in one-two-three patterns, and distance management that keeps you at perfect striking range.

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Fighters & Fighting Styles

The Three Types of Boxers

Volume Punchers (Max Holloway, early Justin Gaethje):

• Throw 6-8 punches per exchange like they're getting paid per shot
• Land 40-60 significant strikes per 15 minutes
• Win through sheer output and accumulation
• Often fade in later rounds because throwing 200 punches is exhausting
• Market prices them correctly because the output is visible

Power Punchers (Francis Ngannou, Derrick Lewis):

• Throw maybe 20-30 strikes per 15 minutes
• Each one thrown with "I'm ending this right now" intent
• One punch can end the fight at any moment
• Preserve energy for late-round finishes
• Market underprices them because knockout probability is lower than hype suggests

Defensive Specialists (Tyron Woodley historically):

• Emphasize head movement and evasion over offense
• Counterstrike rather than lead
• Fewer total strikes but higher accuracy
• Win boring decisions without taking damage
• Market chronically underprices them because they don't finish fights

Strengths:

• Hand combinations are brutally effective at close range
• Footwork is energy-efficient (doesn't tire you like kicking does)
• Natural advantage against other strikers
• Works surprisingly well in clinch

Weaknesses:

• Vulnerable to kicks (boxers get caught with low leg kicks constantly)
• Wrestling completely neutralizes boxing
• Kicks to body and head land clean
• Limited options when pressed against cage

Betting implications: Volume punchers are often correctly priced because everyone sees the output. Power punchers are underpriced because knockout probability is lower than hype suggests. Defensive specialists are the most underpriced because they don't finish fights, but they win decisions all day.

Shurzy Tip: If you're betting a power puncher because "he could knock anyone out," congratulations. You're gambling, not betting. Knockout probability is like 15-20%, not the 40% you think it is.

Read more: Best Strikers in UFC History

Kickboxing: Power, Range, Leg Attacks

Kickboxing is boxing plus kicks, which sounds obvious but completely changes everything. Suddenly you're not just worrying about hands. You're defending legs, body, and head from kicks while trying to close distance. The emphasis shifts to leg kicks, distance management through push kicks, and range control.

Core principles: Punches plus kicks (shocking, right?), emphasis on leg kicks that accumulate damage invisibly, teeps (push kicks) that create distance without full commitment, and range control that keeps opponents at optimal striking distance where your weapons work and theirs don't.

The Three Types of Kickboxers

Leg Kick Specialists (Justin Gaethje now, Anthony Pettis historically):

• Target opponent's legs relentlessly
• Damage accumulates slowly, movement deteriorates gradually
• By Round 3, opponent's footwork is compromised
• Switch stance to kick from different angles
• Judges love this, casual bettors think "it's just leg kicks"

Distance Fighters (Israel Adesanya, Valentina Shevchenko):

• Use teeps to control range like a puppet master
• Strike from distance, retreat before counters land
• Use kicks for both offense and defense
• Frustrate aggressive opponents who can't close distance
• Leads to decisions rather than finishes

High-Volume Kickers (Joanna Jędrzejczyk):

• Mix kicks and punches at high tempo
• Land kicks from various heights (low, body, head)
• Create chaos through sheer output rather than power
• Win by accumulation, not devastation

Strengths:

• Leg kicks are both scoring and damaging (win-win)
• Extended range because kicks reach farther than punches
• Versatility through multiple attack angles
• Control momentum by keeping aggressive opponents at distance

Weaknesses:

• Kicks have setup time, which wrestlers exploit
• Overcommitted kicks create balance issues
• Leg damage is cumulative but doesn't end fights quickly
• Kicking leaves your stance open to wrestling

Betting implications: Leg kick specialists are chronically underpriced because their damage is subtle and cumulative. Casual observers see "just leg kicks" while the opponent's entire game deteriorates. Markets don't fully price the late-round advantage that 30+ leg kicks creates. By Round 3, the opponent can barely move, but the odds don't reflect this.

Example: Fighter A (leg kick specialist) versus Fighter B (striker with mediocre leg defense). By Round 3, A has landed 30+ leg kicks. B's movement is compromised. B's takedown defense actually gets worse because footwork is shot. A controls the fight late. Over 2.5 rounds and Method of Victory: Decision are both value because A dominates through accumulation, not devastation.

Shurzy Tip: If you see a leg kick specialist facing someone with questionable leg defense, bet Over rounds and Decision. The damage is invisible to casual bettors but judges see it clear as day.

Read more: Grappling Styles (BJJ, Wrestling, Judo, Sambo)

Muay Thai: "Art of Eight Limbs"

Muay Thai is called the "art of eight limbs" because you're weaponizing everything: punches, kicks, elbows, and knees. The emphasis is on clinch work, tight range striking, and devastating close-range attacks that boxing and kickboxing simply don't have.

Core principles: Punches, kicks, elbows, knees (all of them). Heavy emphasis on clinch work where you control the opponent's posture and land knees and elbows from inside their reach. Tight range striking that happens at distances where boxers and kickboxers feel uncomfortable.

The Three Types of Muay Thai Fighters

Clinch Fighters (Jose Aldo, Dominick Cruz historically):

• Control distance by moving inside opponent's reach
• Land knees and elbows from clinch
• Reset positions constantly to maintain control
• Frustrate distance fighters who can't maintain their optimal range
• This style is effective but undervalued because clinch work looks "boring"

Elbow Specialists (Joanna Jędrzejczyk):

• Heavy emphasis on elbow strikes, especially in clinch
• Elbows are harder to time and defend than punches
• Come from weird angles that punches can't
• Create significant cuts and accumulated damage
• Judges see bleeding and reward it heavily

Body Kickers (Rodrigo Nascimento):

• Target body extensively (ribs, liver, solar plexus)
• Body damage slows opponents dramatically, affects cardio
• Setup for head strikes (hurt body first, then go upstairs)
• This is slow strategic game that wins rounds
• Doesn't create early finishes that casual bettors expect

Strengths:

• Clinch dominance creates control points that judges reward heavily
• Elbows are devastating and underrated defensively
• Body damage limits cardio (effects compound over entire fight)
• Range versatility means you can strike from any distance

Weaknesses:

• Clinch wrestling can backfire (opponent might reverse or throw you)
• Elbows require precise positioning
• Body damage is slow accumulation (doesn't produce quick finishes)
• Elite wrestlers neutralize clinch completely

Betting implications: Muay Thai fighters are often undervalued in striking matchups because judges reward their clinch control and elbows more than the market prices. However, they're systematically overvalued against wrestlers because clinch control doesn't matter if the wrestler is actually in control, not you.

Example: Fighter A (Muay Thai clinch specialist) versus Fighter B (volume striker without clinch skills). A controls distances, lands clinch knees, accumulates damage through elbows. Market might price them evenly if both are "strikers," but A's clinch dominance gives them a massive scoring advantage. Method of Victory: Decision favors A. Over rounds favors A (clinch fighters slow fights down, go decisions).

Shurzy Tip: Muay Thai clinch fighters are the most systematically underpriced strikers in UFC betting. Judges love clinch control. Casual bettors think it's boring and bet against it. That gap between what judges reward and what casual bettors value is where your money lives.

Read more: Hybrid Styles (MMA-Integrated Systems)

How These Styles Collide

Boxing vs. Kickboxing

What happens: Pure distance battle. Boxer wants hands. Kickboxer wants range via kicks. It's that simple and that complicated.

Critical factor: Does the boxer close distance fast enough to neutralize kicks, or does the kickboxer maintain range and accumulate leg kick damage over time?

Typical outcome: If boxer wins, they close fast and overwhelm with hand combinations in tight. If kickboxer wins, they maintain distance and leg kicks damage the boxer's movement until footwork is compromised.

Betting angle: Over 1.5 rounds if boxer is favored (likely closes distance early for fast finish). Over 2.5 if kickboxer is favored (keeps fight at range, goes distance through accumulation, not devastation).

Muay Thai vs. Boxing

What happens: Range control battle. Muay Thai fighter wants clinch. Boxer wants distance and footwork. It's a game of inches.

Critical factor: Can the boxer control distance without getting clinched? Can the Muay Thai fighter secure and maintain clinch position?

Typical outcome: If Muay Thai wins, they get clinch and land knees and elbows for control points. If boxer wins, they stay at punching range and avoid clinch entirely through superior footwork.

Betting angle: Method of Victory decisions favor Muay Thai (clinch control scores but doesn't finish). Over rounds favors Muay Thai (clinch slows fights, goes later rounds, judges reward control).

Muay Thai vs. Kickboxing

What happens: Both want range and kicks, but Muay Thai emphasizes clinch while kickboxing emphasizes distance. Technical chess match.

Critical factor: Who controls the clinch exchanges? Who maintains optimal distance for their weapons?

Typical outcome: Relatively balanced (both skilled strikers), likely decision. High-level technical fight that goes the distance.

Betting angle: Over rounds favored (both elites, neither finishes easily). Significant strikes over average (high output from both). Decision method most likely (probably 70%+ probability).

Read more: How Styles Clash in UFC Fights

Striking Against Wrestling: Where Edges Vanish

This is where all striking technical mastery matters exactly zero. A striker's beautiful footwork, precision hands, and highlight-reel kicks become completely irrelevant if they're being taken down every 90 seconds.

Key metrics for strikers versus wrestlers:

• Takedown Defense (TDD): What percentage of takedown attempts does the striker successfully defend? This is the only number that matters.
• Scramble ability: Once down, can they get back up quickly or are they stuck on their back?
• Defensive BJJ: If on their back, can they prevent damage or escape submission attempts?

Typical outcomes: Striker with 60% TDD versus elite wrestler means the wrestler likely wins 2 of 3 rounds (takes them down, controls, wins the round automatically). Striker with 80%+ TDD versus wrestler means the fight stays standing more often, and the striker's technical advantage actually matters.

Betting implications: Markets systematically underprice wrestlers against strikers with mediocre TDD. A striker who "looks elite" in highlight reels but has 65% TDD is priced like they'll keep the fight standing. In reality, they'll be on their back regularly, and all their striking becomes irrelevant.

Example: Striker with 70% TDD versus elite wrestler with 85% takedown accuracy. Striker is priced -150 (favorite) because casual money loves strikers. But the wrestler takes them down 1-2 times per round, controls 5 minutes per round, and likely wins 2 rounds minimum. Wrestler at +130 is absolutely massive value that the market completely misses because everyone's betting the knockout that never comes.

Shurzy Tip: If a striker has less than 75% takedown defense and they're facing an elite wrestler, bet the wrestler every single time. The market underprices wrestling so consistently it's basically free money if you're patient.

Read more: Best Grapplers in UFC History

Weight Class Striking Variations

Heavyweight striking: Power over technique always. One punch ends everything. Markets systematically overprice Over rounds because the true finish rate is way higher than casual bettors expect. Everyone thinks heavyweight "wars" go the distance. Reality: they finish early approximately 65% of the time.

Lightweight striking: Technique over power. More decisions because skill matters more than physical attributes. Markets are more efficient here because it's the most watched division with the most sharp money. Look for specific stylistic edges rather than general patterns.

Featherweight striking: Volume and speed dominate everything. High-output fighters (Max Holloway) are chronically underpriced because they don't finish with highlight KOs. But they win decisions decisively through sheer accumulation. Casual bettors want knockouts. Judges reward volume. That gap is value.

Read more: Style Matchups That Create Betting Value

Conclusion

Understanding striking styles transforms you from betting on "the knockout guy" to betting on specific technical matchups that create systematic edges. Boxing emphasizes hands and footwork. Kickboxing adds range and leg attacks. Muay Thai brings clinch control and elbows. Each beats certain styles and loses to others in predictable ways.

The biggest edge in striking? Markets overprice strikers generally because knockouts are sexy and trend on social media. They underprice defensive strikers who win boring decisions. They dramatically underprice clinch specialists who control fights without finishing. And they catastrophically underprice wrestlers against strikers with mediocre takedown defense.

That's where the money lives. Not in betting knockouts. In betting the technical realities that determine who actually wins when the cage door closes.

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