Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Defensive Props (Sacks, INTs, Turnovers)

Best Super Bowl Defensive Props for Conference Championship Sunday

Best Bet #1: Sam Darnold to Throw 1+ Interceptions (-141)

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Sam Darnold has thrown 6 interceptions in 2 regular-season meetings vs. the Rams (4 INTs in Week 11, 2 INTs in Week 16), demonstrating structural vulnerability to Los Angeles' pass rush and coverage schemes.

At -141 odds (implied probability: 58.5%), Darnold needs to throw an interception in just 1 of 2 games to break even - but his history vs. LAR suggests a true 70%+ probability.

Why Darnold throws 1+ INTs:

• 6 INTs in 2 meetings vs. Rams (4 in Week 11, 2 in Week 16)
• 20 total turnovers in 2025 regular season (league-high)
• INTs in 12 of 17 games (70.6% hit rate)
• Rams' 42% pressure rate (7th-highest in NFL)
• Last year's Wild Card: Darnold threw 1 INT, took 9 sacks vs. Rams

Historical Context: Darnold has thrown 4+ interceptions in three different games during the 2025 season, with his Week 11 performance (4 INTs, 19-for-38, 185 yards) representing his worst statistical output. TheBostBet.ca's expert projects Darnold to throw 1-2 interceptions, citing the Rams' "much healthier and scarier defense".

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Sam Darnold 1+ Interceptions at -141 (Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel)
• Consider a 2-leg correlated parlay: Darnold 1+ INTs + Under 47.5 Total at +245 odds

Projected Line: Darnold 2 INTs, 241 yards, 0 TDs - Crushes the Over

Shurzy Tip: When a QB has 6 INTs in 2 games against a defense, you don't overthink it. You bet he throws at least one more.

Best Bet #2: Drake Maye to Throw 1+ Interceptions (+100)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Drake Maye has thrown interceptions in 4 of his last 6 games and faces his third top-5 defense in three weeks, with Denver's 68-sack pass rush (1st in NFL) and Pat Surtain II's elite coverage (Defensive Player of the Year) creating structural turnover probability.

At +100 odds (implied probability: 50.0%), Maye needs to throw an interception in just 1 of 2 games to break even - but historical trends suggest a true 65-70% probability.

Why Maye throws 1+ INTs:

• INTs in 4 of last 6 games
• 8 INTs in 17 regular-season games (0.47 per game)
• 5 turnovers in first 2 playoff games (including 2 fumbles)
• Denver forced 24 INTs during regular season (3rd-most in NFL)
• Surtain: 4 INTs, 25 catches allowed for 211 yards (7.4 YPA) in shadow coverage

Historical Context: In rookie QB's first road playoff start at altitude, historical data shows a 68% interception rate due to crowd noise limiting pre-snap adjustments and elite pass-rush units forcing quick decisions. RotoWire's expert model projects Maye for 1.2 interceptions (Over 0.5 INTs at +100).

The Texans vs. Patriots Divisional Round game showed similar INT prop value when rookie QBs face elite defenses in playoff road games.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Drake Maye 1+ Interceptions at +100 (FanDuel, DraftKings)
• Consider a 3-leg correlated parlay: Maye 1+ INTs + Under 41.5 Total + Broncos +4.5 ATS at +520 odds

Projected Line: Maye 1 INT, 207 yards, 1 TD - Hits the Over

Shurzy Tip: Rookie QB + altitude + 68-sack pass rush = automatic INT lean. Plus money on this is a gift.

Best Bet #3: Jarrett Stidham to Throw 1+ Interceptions (-176)

Game: Broncos vs. Patriots
Confidence: High (4 units)

Jarrett Stidham has thrown interceptions in 3 of his 4 career starts, with a career INT rate of 2.7% (well above league average of 2.0%). Against New England's rejuvenated pass defense (ranked 5th in defensive EPA/play) and hostile road environment, Stidham faces the most challenging matchup of his career.

Why Stidham throws 1+ INTs:

• INTs in 3 of 4 career starts (2.7% INT rate vs. 2.0% league average)
• Limited experience (just 5 career starts, playoff debut)
• Patriots forced 22 INTs during regular season (tied for 4th-most)
• 19 sacks in 2 playoff games demonstrates elite pressure
• RotoWire projects Stidham for 1.1 INTs

Betting Action:

• Place 3-4 units on Jarrett Stidham 1+ Interceptions at -176 (FanDuel, DraftKings)

Projected Line: Stidham 1 INT, 237 yards, 1 TD - Hits the Over

Best Bet #4: Total Sacks Over 13+ Combined (+120)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

The Patriots-Broncos matchup features two elite pass-rushing units (Denver: 68 sacks, 1st in NFL; New England: 47 sacks, 5th in AFC), creating structural Over value on the 13+ total sacks combined prop at +120 odds.

With backup QB Jarrett Stidham facing pressure and Drake Maye's 57 sacks allowed during the regular season (2nd-most), the game projects for 7-8 combined sacks - well above the 6.5 threshold needed to clear 13+.

Why Total Sacks goes Over 13+:

• Denver: 68 sacks (9.3% sack rate, 1st in NFL)
• Nik Bonitto: 14 sacks, 47 pressures
• Patriots OL: 58 sacks allowed (4th-most)
• Backup QB Stidham starting (playoff games with backup QBs average 8.4 total sacks)
• Maye allowed 57 sacks during regular season (2nd-most)

Historical Context: Playoff games with backup QBs average 8.4 total sacks, with elite pass-rushing units pushing that number to 10+. Denver's 68-sack total represents a 9.3% sack rate (1st in NFL), with Nik Bonitto (14 sacks, 47 pressures) and Zach Allen (73 pressures, highest among DL) leading the charge.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Total Sacks Over 13+ Combined at +120 (Hard Rock Bet, DraftKings)
• Consider the alternate total: 14+ Total Sacks Combined at +190 for 2-unit exposure

Projected Line: 8 total sacks (Denver: 5, New England: 3) - Hits the Over

Best Bet #5: Any Defense to Score a Touchdown (+140)

Game: Championship Sunday (Both Games)
Confidence: High (3-4 units)

Defensive touchdowns have occurred in 27 of 59 Super Bowls (45.8% hit rate), with 2 defensive TDs in the last 3 Super Bowls. At +140 odds (implied probability: 41.7%), bettors need 1 defensive TD in Championship Sunday to cash - and with 4 turnovers combined (Darnold: 2 INTs, Maye: 1 INT, Stidham: 1 INT), the probability exceeds 50%.

Why Any Defense Scores TD:

• 27 of 59 Super Bowls featured defensive TDs (45.8% hit rate)
• 2 defensive TDs in last 3 Super Bowls
• Pat Surtain II: 4 INTs, 2 career pick-sixes
• Denver's 68-sack pass rush creates strip-sack opportunities
• Seattle's defense scored 3 defensive TDs in 2025

Key Edge: Pat Surtain II leads all CBs with 4 interceptions and has returned 2 interceptions for TDs in his career, demonstrating elite ball skills. Denver's elite pass rush (68 sacks) creates strip-sack opportunities, with Nik Bonitto recording 3 forced fumbles during the regular season.

Betting Action:

• Place 2-3 units on Any Defense to Score a Touchdown at +140 (Hard Rock Bet, DraftKings)
• Consider the alternate prop: 1+ Interception Returned TD at +140 for similar payout

Projected Line: 1 defensive TD (Surtain pick-six) - Cashes +140

Advanced Interception Bets Strategy

Target Backup QBs and Turnover-Prone QBs

Sharp bettors prioritize interception props when backup QBs start or turnover-prone QBs face elite defenses.

Backup QBs:

• Jarrett Stidham (5 career starts, 2.7% INT rate)

Turnover-prone QBs:

• Sam Darnold (20 turnovers in 2025, league-high)

Sack Props: Pressure Rate + OL Quality

Total sacks props are driven by pass-rush pressure rate and offensive line quality.

Elite pass-rushing units:

• Denver (68 sacks, 9.3% sack rate)

Poor offensive lines:

• Patriots (58 sacks allowed, 4th-most)

Defensive TD Value: Turnovers = TD Probability

Defensive touchdowns correlate strongly with total turnovers.

4+ combined turnovers: 58% defensive TD rate historically

Elite ball-hawking DBs: Pat Surtain II (4 INTs, 2 career pick-sixes)

Shurzy Tip: When you've got 4+ projected turnovers in a game (Darnold 2, Maye 1, Stidham 1), at least one is getting taken to the house. Bet Any Defense TD.

Super Bowl LX Defensive Props Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks vs. Patriots

• Total Sacks: 5.5 (lean Under)
• Defensive TD: +150 (lean Yes)

Sharpest bet: Any Defense to Score TD +150

Highest-Sack Potential: Rams vs. Broncos

• Total Sacks: 7.5 (lean Over)
• Stidham 1+ INTs: -180 (lean Yes)

Sharpest bet: Total Sacks Over 7.5

Final Thoughts

The five best defensive props for Championship Sunday are Sam Darnold 1+ Interceptions (-141), Drake Maye 1+ Interceptions (+100), Jarrett Stidham 1+ Interceptions (-176), Total Sacks Over 13+ Combined (+120), and Any Defense to Score TD (+140) - all backed by elite matchup data and sharp value.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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