Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Kicker Props, Field Goals, and Longest FG Bets

Best Super Bowl Kicker Props for Conference Championship Sunday

Best Bet #1: Jason Myers Over 8.5 Total Points (-120)

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Jason Myers led the NFL with 43 field goals made during the 2025 regular season (2nd-most) and ranks as the #1 fantasy kicker for Championship Sunday, projecting for 11.5 total points (3 FGs + 2 XPs) based on Seattle's red-zone struggles and conservative offensive approach.

At 8.5 total points, Myers needs just 2 field goals + 3 extra points (or 3 FGs alone) to clear his line - a low floor given Seattle's 28.4 PPG average.

Why Myers crushes Over 8.5:

• 43 FGs made in 2025 regular season (2nd-most in NFL)
• 9 total points vs. 49ers in Divisional Round (3-for-3 FGs)
• Seattle's 52.8% red-zone TD rate (28th in NFL) creates FG opportunities
• Seahawks settle for FGs on 47.2% of red-zone trips
• RotoWire ranks Myers as #1 kicker, projects 3.2 FGs made

Historical Context: In the two 2025 regular-season matchups vs. the Rams, Myers recorded 11 combined FG attempts (5-for-6 in Week 11, 3-for-5 in Week 16), averaging 9.5 FG attempts per game - well above the league average of 7.2 attempts per playoff game.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Jason Myers Over 8.5 Total Points at -120 (FanDuel, DraftKings)
• Consider the alternate total: Myers Over 10.5 Total Points at +140 for 2-unit exposure

Projected Line: Myers 12 points (3 FGs, 3 XPs) - Crushes the Over

Shurzy Tip: When a team ranks 28th in red-zone TD rate, their kicker is eating. Myers gets volume. Bet Over.

Best Bet #2: Harrison Mevis Over 6.5 Total Points (-115)

Game: Rams at Seahawks
Confidence: High (4 units)

Harrison Mevis ranks as the #2 fantasy kicker for Championship Sunday and has recorded 7+ total points in 12 of 17 regular-season games, demonstrating consistent volume in the Rams' #1-ranked offense (30.5 PPG).

At 6.5 total points, Mevis needs just 2 FGs + 1 XP (or 2 FGs alone) to clear his line - a low floor given the Rams' explosive scoring potential.

Why Mevis clears Over 6.5:

• 7+ points in 12 of 17 regular-season games
• 11 total points vs. Chicago in Divisional Round (2-for-2 FGs, 2-for-2 XPs in 20-17 OT win)
• Rams' 62% red-zone TD rate (top-5 in NFL) creates XP opportunities
• Seattle's elite pass defense forces Rams into FG attempts on stalled drives
• Athlon Sports ranks Mevis as #2 kicker for Championship Sunday

Betting Action:

• Place 3-4 units on Harrison Mevis Over 6.5 Total Points at -115 (FanDuel, DraftKings)

Projected Line: Mevis 9 points (2 FGs, 3 XPs) - Clears the Over

Best Bet #3: Andy Borregales Over 7.5 Total Points (-118)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Andy Borregales ranks as the #3 fantasy kicker for Championship Sunday and has recorded 8+ total points in 13 of 17 regular-season games, projecting for 10.2 total points (2 FGs + 4 XPs) based on New England's balanced offensive attack and conservative play-calling.

At 7.5 total points, Borregales needs just 2 FGs + 2 XPs (or 2.5 FGs alone) to clear his line - a low floor given the Patriots' 27.8 PPG average.

Why Borregales crushes Over 7.5:

• 8+ points in 13 of 17 regular-season games
• 10 total points vs. Houston in Divisional Round (2-for-2 FGs, 4-for-4 XPs)
• Patriots' 58.4% red-zone TD rate (18th in NFL) creates FG opportunities
• Denver's #2 scoring defense limits scoring but forces high-leverage FG attempts
• Patriots settle for FGs on 41.6% of red-zone trips

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Andy Borregales Over 7.5 Total Points at -118 (FanDuel, DraftKings)
• Consider a 2-leg correlated parlay: Borregales Over 7.5 + Patriots -4.5 ATS at +280 odds

Projected Line: Borregales 11 points (2 FGs, 5 XPs) - Crushes the Over

Best Bet #4: Wil Lutz Under 5.5 Total Points (-115)

Game: Broncos vs. Patriots
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Wil Lutz ranks as the #4 fantasy kicker for Championship Sunday and has gone Under 5.5 total points in 11 of 17 regular-season games, with Denver's backup-QB situation and conservative offensive approach limiting scoring opportunities.

At 5.5 total points, Lutz needs 2 FGs + 0 XPs (or 1 FG + 3 XPs) to clear his line - a high threshold given Denver's projected 18.5 team total points.

Why Lutz stays Under 5.5:

• Under 5.5 points in 11 of 17 regular-season games
• Just 3 total points vs. Buffalo in Divisional Round (23-yard game-winning FG in OT, 0 XPs)
• Backup QB Stidham creates run-heavy game script limiting red-zone possessions
• Patriots' #5 defensive EPA/play forces punts and turnovers
• Athlon Sports ranks Lutz as #4 kicker (lowest among Championship Sunday), projects 5.1 points

Historical Context: In playoff games with backup QBs starting, kickers average 4.8 total points - 0.7 points below Lutz's prop line. Denver's backup QB Jarrett Stidham (5 career starts, conservative play-calling) creates a run-heavy game script that limits red-zone possessions.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Wil Lutz Under 5.5 Total Points at -115 (FanDuel, DraftKings)

Projected Line: Lutz 3 points (1 FG, 0 XPs) - Hits the Under

Shurzy Tip: Backup QB + elite defense = low-scoring game. Lutz isn't kicking 3 FGs. Bet Under.

Advanced Field Goal Bets Strategy

Target High-Scoring Offenses with Red-Zone Struggles

Sharp bettors prioritize kickers on high-scoring teams with poor red-zone TD rates, as these create maximum field-goal volume.

Over Indicators:

• High-scoring offense + poor red-zone TD rate: Seahawks (28.4 PPG, 52.8% red-zone TD rate = Myers Over 8.5)
• Explosive offense + elite defense: Rams (30.5 PPG) vs. Seahawks (15.7 PPG allowed) = tight game, multiple FG attempts

Game Script: Close Games = More FG Attempts

Kicker props are heavily influenced by game script.

Over Indicators:

• Close games (spread ≤3 points): Rams (+2.5) vs. Seahawks creates tight environment with multiple FG attempts
• High totals (≥47 points): Rams-Seahawks total of 47.5 signals offensive possessions that boost kicker volume

Under Indicators:

• Blowout games: If Seattle leads 24-7 at halftime, Myers' volume collapses to <1 FG attempt
• Low totals (≤42 points): Patriots-Broncos total of 41.5 signals defensive struggle with limited scoring opportunities

The Bills vs. Jaguars Wild Card breakdown showed similar kicker prop value when close games create multiple field-goal attempts.

Shurzy Tip: Close spreads = kicker volume. Rams +2.5 means this game stays tight. Both kickers eat. Bet Overs.

Super Bowl LX NFL Kicking Props Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks vs. Patriots

• Jason Myers: 9.5 total points (lean Over)
• Andy Borregales: 8.5 total points (lean Over)

Sharpest bet: Myers Over 9.5 in a Seattle-controlled game where the Seahawks settle for multiple FG attempts.

Highest-Scoring Potential: Rams vs. Patriots

• Harrison Mevis: 7.5 total points (lean Over in a shootout)
• Andy Borregales: 10.5 total points (lean Over if game becomes high-scoring)

Sharpest bet: Mevis Over 7.5 in a 31-28 thriller where both kickers exceed 10 points.

Final Thoughts

The four best kicker props for Championship Sunday are Jason Myers Over 8.5 Total Points, Harrison Mevis Over 6.5 Total Points, Andy Borregales Over 7.5 Total Points, and Wil Lutz Under 5.5 Total Points - all backed by red-zone analytics, game-script projections, and sharp value.

For Super Bowl LX, expect longest FG props around 47.5 yards, with Over value given Levi's Stadium's favorable kicking conditions.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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