NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Linebacker Rankings and Run Defense Impact

Linebackers drive run fits, early-down efficiency, and how well defenses disguise coverage behind the front, which all feed directly into Super Bowl rushing props, play-action efficiency, and some sack/turnover outcomes. Among the four Super Bowl LX contenders, Seattle clearly has the best run-defense/LB package, the Broncos are strong and gap-sound, while the Rams and Patriots are more "good enough" than dominant against the run. This is your guide to LB-driven betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

Run Defense Snapshot (Yards Per Carry Allowed)

Opponent rushing efficiency in 2025 (regular season):

Broncos: 3.9 yards per carry allowed (11th), 1,548 opponent rush yards
Rams: 4.3 yards per carry allowed (tied 9th once adjusted), 1,884 opponent rush yards
Patriots: 4.2 yards per carry allowed, 1,729 opponent rush yards
Seahawks: Not listed in the top 24 excerpt, but schematic previews describe them as #1 in run defense by EPA and "dominant vs the run", anchoring their whole defensive identity

TeamRankings' opponent yards-per-rush tables similarly list Seattle near the top, with a very low opponent YPC figure that underpins their play-action success.

Linebacker Units and Style

Seahawks LBs - Best Run Defense in This Pool

Scheme breakdowns call Seattle's run defense "so dominant (#1)" that it allows them to aggressively defend play-action without over-committing extra bodies.

That front-seven discipline, with off-ball LBs flowing quickly and fitting runs cleanly, is a big reason why the current Seahawks defense is being compared to (and even argued to be better than) the old Legion of Boom in run terms.

Run-Game Betting Impact:

Hard cap on opposing RB rushing Upside - you should be cautious with RB rushing-yards Overs against Seattle. Supports opponent QB attempts/Yards Overs and play-action passing more than ground-and-pound scripts.

Championship Sunday Projection:

If Seahawks advance, opposing RB rushing yards Overs are risky. Fade Kyren Williams Over 78.5, RJ Harvey Over 58.5 unless heavy volume (25+ carries).

Broncos LBs - Strong, Gap-Sound Behind an Elite Front

Denver allowed just 3.9 yards per carry and 1,548 rush yards, one of the better run defenses in the league.

Broncos' team profile: 2,018 rushing yards gained vs 1,548 allowed, plus 68 sacks; that combination reflects LBs who clean up behind a very disruptive line.

Run-Game Betting Impact:

Good but not quite Seattle-level. Opponent RB Overs need volume and passing-down work, not just efficiency. Denver's LBs help force longer down-and-distance, which feeds their pass rush and can push games toward more passing and sacks.

Championship Sunday Projection:

If Broncos advance, opposing RB needs 20+ carries to hit Overs. Kenneth Walker III Over 82.5 requires 23+ carries, not just efficiency.

Shurzy Tip: Seahawks' run defense is #1 by EPA. That's not "good" - that's dominant. Fade all RB rushing Overs against Seattle unless the back gets 25+ carries.

Rams LBs - Solid but Not Suffocating

Rams allowed 1,884 rushing yards at an adjusted 4.3 YPC, roughly top-10 by some composite rankings.

Their defense ranks well overall, but run defense is more "good" than elite. Playoff write-ups highlight coverage and scheme as much as pure LB dominance.

Run-Game Betting Impact:

Opposing RBs can get there with usage - elite backs with 18-20+ carries can still hit Overs. Rams' LBs are good enough that you don't blindly hammer RB Overs, but you also don't need to auto-fade versus them.

Championship Sunday Projection:

If Rams advance, opposing RBs with 18+ carries can hit Overs. Kenneth Walker III Over 82.5 at 23 carries is viable, Rhamondre Stevenson Over 49.5 at 15+ carries is safer.

Patriots LBs - Functional, with Other Strengths Highlighted

New England allowed 1,729 rush yards at 4.2 yards per carry, right in the middle of the pack in opponent efficiency.

Broader playoff-weakness analysis focuses more on the Patriots' offensive line than on glaring front-seven run issues, implying the run defense/LB group is serviceable but not a dominant edge.

Run-Game Betting Impact:

Opponents with strong OLs and feature backs (Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker, RJ Harvey) can realistically hit rushing-yards and attempts Overs. Pats' LBs will keep most backs honest, but they don't project to erase a good ground game by themselves.

Championship Sunday Projection:

If Patriots advance, opposing RBs are viable targets. Kyren Williams Over 78.5 Rushing Yards is strong play vs Patriots' middle-of-pack run defense.

How This Shapes Super Bowl LX Rushing Bets

If These Teams Meet in the Super Bowl:

Facing Seahawks' LBs/Run D:

De-emphasize RB rushing-yards Overs for the opponent. Lean toward RB receiving Overs and QB passing props instead. Team rushing totals vs Seattle are more likely to miss ceiling unless game script is heavily run-positive.

Championship Sunday Examples:

Kyren Williams Under 78.5 Rushing Yards vs Seahawks
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 49.5 Rushing Yards vs Seahawks
RJ Harvey Under 58.5 Rushing Yards vs Seahawks

Facing Broncos' LBs/Run D:

Opposing RBs can get there on volume but will have to earn yardage. Efficiency Overs (e.g., very high rushing lines) are riskier. Correlate moderate RB rushing props with shorter passing games rather than expecting big explosives on the ground.

Championship Sunday Examples:

Kenneth Walker III needs 23+ carries to hit Over 82.5
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 49.5 viable at 18+ carries
Efficiency plays (5+ YPC) are riskier

Facing Rams/Patriots LBs:

These are the more targetable run defenses of the four. Feature backs on good OLs can be used for rushing-yards and attempts Overs, especially in neutral or positive scripts.

Championship Sunday Examples:

Kyren Williams Over 78.5 vs Patriots (strong play)
Kenneth Walker III Over 82.5 vs Rams (viable at 20+ carries)
RJ Harvey Over 58.5 vs Patriots (volume play)

Best LB-Driven Run Defense Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Run Defense Bet #1: Kyren Williams Under 78.5 Rushing Yards vs Seahawks (-110)

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 3-4 units

Seahawks' #1 run defense by EPA, dominant front-seven discipline caps Williams' ceiling despite elite usage.

Best Run Defense Bet #2: Kenneth Walker III Over 82.5 Rushing Yards vs Rams (-115)

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Rams' 4.3 YPC allowed (9th) creates opportunity for Walker with 23+ projected carries and 100% backfield share.

Best Run Defense Bet #3: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 49.5 Rushing Yards vs Rams (-115)

Confidence: High
Stake: 1-2 units

Patriots' lead back vs Rams' middle-of-pack run defense at 18+ carries creates volume-driven value.

Play-Action Efficiency and LB Coverage

Seahawks' Dominant Run Defense Creates Play-Action Value:

Because Seahawks' run defense is so dominant (#1 by EPA), they can aggressively defend play-action without over-committing extra bodies. This creates QB passing yards Overs for opponents who lean on play-action.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams face Seahawks, Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards gains value because Rams will use play-action to counter Seattle's dominant run defense.

Broncos' Gap-Sound LBs Force Longer Down-and-Distance:

Denver's LBs help force longer down-and-distance (3.9 YPC allowed), which feeds their 68-sack pass rush and pushes games toward more passing.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Broncos face Seahawks, expect more passing attempts (35+) for Sam Darnold, creating Darnold Over passing yards value despite sack risk.

Final Thoughts

In summary: Seattle's linebackers and structure give them the clearest run-stopping edge, Denver is close behind, and the Rams/Patriots sit in the "can be run on with the right personnel and script" bucket - a key lens for building Super Bowl LX rushing and play-action betting positions.

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