NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Longshot Props and Plus-Money Bets

Longshot and plus-money Super Bowl props are where you trade lower hit rates for higher payouts, so you want them tightly tied to your game script instead of just spraying the board. The key is picking few, correlated, and mispriced plus money props rather than every shiny +800 you see. This is your guide to longshot betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

Smart Categories for Plus-Money SB LX Bets

These tend to give the best balance of price vs. real probability:

Anytime TD Scorers at Modest Plus Money

Not the +900 bombs - think +140 to +300 on players with real red-zone roles (RB1, alpha WR, TE1).

Example from current SB LX prop sheet: Hunter Henry +1600 and RJ Harvey +1800 are priced as longshots despite leading their teams with high TD shares in 2025.

First TD and "Team to Score First TD"

Books often hang +800 to +1200 for first TD. Hit rates are tiny, but if you combine script (who starts fast) + red-zone usage, you can beat the random dart.

Yes/No Exotics with Known Base Rates

Overtime, safety, defensive TD, 2-point attempt, etc. True probabilities are low but measurable. Books often shade the "Yes" too far because recreational bettors like longshots.

Example: Overtime has occurred in ~3% of Super Bowls, but "Yes OT" is often priced around +800 (implied ≈ 11%), a bad bet long-term. Focus on shorter exotics with better math, like "Yes 2-point attempt" in a modern aggressive-coaching era.

When evaluating longshot bets nfl for Super Bowl LX, focus on props with measurable base rates rather than pure novelty markets like coin toss or Gatorade color.

Shurzy Tip: Don't bet +800 first TD props randomly. Stack them with your game script. If you like Patriots fast start, bet Drake Maye first TD at +1200 (not a random backup RB at +2000).

How to Pick Good Longshots (Framework)

Start from script, not the price.

Decide: defensive slugfest, shootout, run-heavy grind, or explosive pass game. Only then pick props that fire inside that world.

Championship Sunday Example:

If you project Rams-Patriots shootout (Over 51.5):

Target high-volume receiving TDs (Nacua, Diggs)
Avoid defensive TD props (low-scoring defense games)
Focus on "Either Team Scores 30+" at plus money

If you project Seahawks-Broncos defensive slog (Under 42.5):

Target defensive TD props at 50-1
Avoid high-volume TD props
Focus on "Total Points Under 38.5" at plus money

Check role and usage.

For Anytime TD, look at red-zone carries/targets and snap share. Avoid pure gadget players unless the number is huge and role is trending up.

Estimate real probability vs. implied.

Implied probability of +900 ≈ 10%; +2000 ≈ 4.8%. If you can't make a plausible case the event happens that often, keep the stake tiny or pass.

Limit how many you play.

Treat longshots as 0.1-0.25 unit bets, even if your normal bet is 1-2 units.

Understanding plus money props requires disciplined bankroll allocation: even with +EV longshots, variance is extreme, so stake sizing matters more than with standard -110 bets.

Longshots to Avoid or Keep Very Tiny

Based on past prop analysis and hit rates:

Overtime "Yes"

True SB OT rate ≈ 3-4%; books often price "Yes OT" around +800 (implied 11%). On expectation you lose money every time. If you must bet it, bet symbolically small.

Safety "Yes"

Rare events priced to attract small bets - same issue: usually negative EV unless a book offers a clearly misaligned number.

Exact Score / Combo SGP Monsters

10,000-1 "final score 27-23" style props make headlines but are lottery tickets. Expected value is terrible unless you're being massively overpaid.

Deep Novelty Markets (Gatorade, Anthem, Etc.)

Fun only. Books heavily pad vig knowing bettors will fire small longshot bets regardless.

Championship Sunday Reality:

Overtime Yes (+800):

True probability: 3-4%
Implied at +800: 11.1%
Expected return: -64% (massive -EV)
Avoid entirely

Coin Toss (+100 either side):

True probability: 50%
Implied at +100: 50%
House edge: 4.5% via vig
Entertainment only, no edge

Building a Plus-Money Portfolio for Super Bowl LX

For a disciplined card:

Reserve 5-10% of your total Super Bowl stake for longshots.

Inside that:

1-3 plus-money Anytime TDs/first-TD shots tied to your script
0-2 exotics (2-point attempt Yes, defensive TD + MVP combo if you like a defense-driven team)
1-2 alt margin/alt spread plays if you have a strong conviction on one side

Everything else should stay in your core straight bets and modest-plus markets (like -110 or +120) where your edge is more about skill than variance.

Championship Sunday Example Portfolio:

Total Super Bowl Bankroll: 10 units

Core Bets (8 units):

Rams -2.5: 3 units
Patriots-Broncos Under 42.5: 2 units
Kenneth Walker III Over 82.5 Rushing Yards: 2 units
Drake Maye Under 223.5 Passing Yards: 1 unit

Longshot/Plus-Money Bets (2 units):

Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+280): 0.5 units
Kenneth Walker III First TD (+475): 0.25 units
Broncos Defense to Score TD (+140): 0.25 units
Rams Win by 7-12 Points (+350): 0.5 units
2-Point Attempt Yes (+130): 0.25 units
Patriots Score First and Win (+150): 0.25 units

Total longshots: 2 units (20% of bankroll), spread across 6 props with varying risk profiles.

When structuring plus money props portfolios, diversify by outcome type (TD props, defensive props, margin props) rather than stacking multiple props on same player or game script.

Best Longshot Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Longshot Bet #1: Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+280)

Confidence: High
Stake: 0.5-1 unit

21 red-zone targets (1st among AFC TEs), 80% of Patriots TE TDs inside the 5, true probability ~30% vs 26.3% implied = positive EV.

Best Longshot Bet #2: Kenneth Walker III First TD (+475)

Confidence: Medium
Stake: 0.25 units

100% backfield share, Seahawks open with run-heavy script 68% of games, true probability ~18-20% vs 17.4% implied = slight edge.

Best Longshot Bet #3: 2-Point Attempt Yes (+130)

Confidence: High
Stake: 0.25-0.5 units

2-point attempts up 41% in 2025 playoffs, McVay aggressive, true probability ~52-55% vs 43.5% implied = strong +EV.

Longshot Props and Expected Value

Understanding EV (Expected Value):

EV = (Win Probability × Payout) - (Loss Probability × Stake)

Championship Sunday Example:

Hunter Henry Anytime TD at +280:

True win probability: 30%
Payout on $100 bet: $280
EV = (0.30 × $280) - (0.70 × $100) = $84 - $70 = +$14 per $100 bet
Positive EV of 14%

Kenneth Walker III First TD at +475:

True win probability: 18%
Payout on $100 bet: $475
EV = (0.18 × $475) - (0.82 × $100) = $85.50 - $82 = +$3.50 per $100 bet
Positive EV of 3.5%

When evaluating longshot bets nfl, always calculate expected value - even fun props should show positive EV or be sized as pure entertainment (0.1 unit maximum).

Longshot Props and Variance

High Variance = Large Swings:

Even with positive EV, longshots create massive variance. You can lose 10 straight +280 bets with 30% true probability (that's normal variance, not bad betting).

Championship Sunday Reality:

If you bet 10 longshots at 0.25 units each (2.5 units total) with average +EV of 8%, expected return is +0.2 units over infinite trials, but in one Super Bowl you might:

Hit 3 of 10: +2.1 units (great day)
Hit 1 of 10: -1.25 units (expected)
Hit 0 of 10: -2.5 units (unlucky but possible)

Key Principle: Longshots require discipline. Even with edge, stake small and diversify across multiple props (not all on one player).

Correlation in Longshot Props

Avoid Stacking Correlated Longshots:

Bad example:

Rams ML
Rams -7.5
Puka Nacua 2+ TDs
Kyren Williams Anytime TD
Matthew Stafford 3+ Passing TDs

All five props need Rams blowout. That's not diversification - that's leverage on one outcome.

Better Approach:

Diversify across game scripts:

1 longshot on Rams dominance (Nacua 2+ TDs)
1 longshot on Patriots competitiveness (Maye Anytime TD)
1 longshot on defensive outcome (Defensive TD)

Championship Sunday Application:

If you like Rams -2.5, stack ONE Rams-domination longshot (not five). Diversify remaining longshots across neutral/opponent outcomes.

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Final Thoughts

Smart plus money props betting for Super Bowl LX means reserving 5-10% of bankroll for longshots, stacking them with your game script (not randomly), calculating expected value, and keeping individual stakes at 0.1-0.25 units even when you love the prop.

Focus on secondary TD options with real red-zone roles (Hunter Henry, RJ Harvey), plus-money exotics with measurable base rates (2-point attempt Yes), and avoid pure novelty markets (overtime, coin toss, Gatorade color) unless stakes are symbolic.

When evaluating longshot bets nfl and plus money props, remember: edge matters more than odds. A +280 prop with 30% true probability (+14% EV) is better than a +2000 prop with 4% true probability (-20% EV), even though the second pays more.

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