NFL Playoff Betting Unit Size Guide: How Much to Bet Per Game

What is a Unit?

A unit is your standardized bet amount, typically 1-3% of bankroll where all betting is measured in units (not dollars) for consistency and psychology. With $1,000 bankroll and 1% unit size equals $10, so all bets are referenced as units where "1 unit on Texans" equals $10, "2 units on Eagles" equals $20, and "0.5 units on Bills" equals $5.

Why units matter: They detach emotion from dollars where losing "2 units" feels different from losing "$20" even though it's the same amount, they scale across bankroll sizes where two bettors with different bankrolls can use the same unit-based strategy, and they allow easy tracking where "I went 7-6 for +1.2 units" is clear regardless of dollar amount. For understanding different bet structures, check out NFL betting spreads.

Shurzy Tip: Start thinking in units, not dollars. It removes emotion and makes tracking results cleaner.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

Optimal Unit Size Selection

Choose your unit based on bankroll, confidence, and risk tolerance:

With $500 bankroll:

• Conservative (1.5%): $7.50 per unit
• Moderate (2%): $10 per unit
• Aggressive (2.5%): $12.50 per unit

With $1,000 bankroll:

• Conservative (1.5%): $15 per unit
• Moderate (2%): $20 per unit
• Aggressive (2.5%): $25 per unit

With $2,000 bankroll:

• Conservative (1.5%): $30 per unit
• Moderate (2%): $40 per unit
• Aggressive (2.5%): $50 per unit

With $5,000 bankroll:

• Conservative (1.5%): $75 per unit
• Moderate (2%): $100 per unit
• Aggressive (2.5%): $125 per unit

Recommendation for beginners: Start at 1.5% (conservative) and once you've had 2-3 profitable seasons, move to 2%.

Recommendation for intermediates: 2% is industry standard as comfortable level balancing variance and gain compounding.

Recommendation for advanced: 2.5% only if bankroll is at least $5,000 and track record shows at least 2 profitable seasons.

Unit Scaling by Edge Magnitude

Your edge determines how many units to allocate to each bet, which is the critical discipline separating professionals from recreational bettors:

• Marginal edge (1-2%): Confidence 60-65%, allocate 0.5 units. With $1,000 bankroll at 2% unit ($20), marginal edge play equals 0.5 times $20 equals $10 bet. This is comfortable loss where 10 losses doesn't hurt bankroll, but only bet marginal edges when desperate for volume because they're break-even long term.
• Solid edge (2-4%): Confidence 70-75%, allocate 1-1.5 units. With $1,000 bankroll at 2% unit ($20), solid edge play equals 1.5 times $20 equals $30 bet. This is comfortable-sized bet at professional standard where 5-6 losses hurt but bankroll survives. Majority of your playoff plays (70-80%) should be here, like underdogs +3 to +6 (61% ATS historical equals 3% edge). For more on underdog value, see NFL moneyline bets explained.
• Strong edge (4-6%): Confidence 80-85%, allocate 2-3 units. With $1,000 bankroll at 2% unit ($20), strong edge play equals 2.5 times $20 equals $50 bet. This is meaningful capital commitment that must have clear statistical justification. Use when identifying home underdog +4 (9-0 ATS historical, 7% edge), Super Bowl-winning QB as underdog (72% ATS, 5% edge), or weather-based total with extreme conditions (3-5% edge).
• Elite edge (6%+ rare): Confidence 85%+, allocate 3-4 units maximum. With $1,000 bankroll at 2% unit ($20), elite edge play equals 3 times $20 equals $60 bet. Only place 2-3 of these per season when extremely rare situations arise like home underdog +6 drawing elite public betting despite 65%+ ATS historical. Reality: Most "elite edge" is overconfidence, so be cautious and only load elite sizes when multiple independent data sources align. For identifying these rare edges, check out NFL playoff best bets.

Shurzy Tip: If you can't quantify your edge percentage within 1-2%, you don't have an edge worth betting. Skip it.

The Unit Matrix (Quick Reference)

Edge 1-2%, Confidence 60-65%, Units 0.5: Bankroll $1k equals $10, Bankroll $5k equals $50
Edge 2-3%, Confidence 70%, Units 1: Bankroll $1k equals $20, Bankroll $5k equals $100
Edge 3-4%, Confidence 72-75%, Units 1.5: Bankroll $1k equals $30, Bankroll $5k equals $150
Edge 4-6%, Confidence 80-85%, Units 2.5: Bankroll $1k equals $50, Bankroll $5k equals $250
Edge 6%+, Confidence 85%+, Units 3: Bankroll $1k equals $60, Bankroll $5k equals $300

Example application: Texans +2 (underdogs, 61% ATS equals 3% edge, 70% confidence) gets 1.5 units, Steelers +3.5 (division rival, 8-2 ATS equals 4% edge, 75% confidence) gets 2 units, Patriots -5 (heavy favorite, 48% ATS equals negative edge) gets SKIP (0 units).

Unit Allocation Across 13 Playoff Games

Structure your entire playoff season around unit allocation with target of 10-12 total games bet and 18-22 units deployed:

Wild Card (4 games): Bet 3 games at average 1.5 units per game equals 4.5 total units (9% bankroll deployment)
Divisional (2 games): Bet 2 games at average 1.75 units per game equals 3.5 total units (7% bankroll deployment)
Conference (2 games): Bet 2 games at average 1.5 units per game equals 3 total units (6% bankroll deployment)
Super Bowl (1 game): Bet 1 game at 1 unit equals 1 total unit (2% bankroll deployment)
TOTAL (13 games): Bet 8-12 games at 1.5 average equals 12-20 total units (24-48% bankroll deployment)

Concrete example with $1,000 bankroll at 2% unit ($20): Wild Card involves betting 3 of 4 games (1 unit plus 1.5 units plus 1 unit equals 3.5 units equals $70), Divisional involves betting 2 of 2 games (1.5 units plus 2 units equals 3.5 units equals $70), Conference involves betting 2 of 2 games (1 unit plus 1.5 units equals 2.5 units equals $50), Super Bowl involves betting 1 of 1 game (1 unit equals $20), where total deployment equals 12 units equals $240 (24% of bankroll). Why conservative total? It leaves 76% of bankroll untouched for variance absorption plus flexibility for mid-season repositioning. For totals strategies, see NFL over under betting.

Correlated Legs: Multi-Unit Exposure Per Game

A single game can have multiple bets (spread, total, props) but cap total units per game to prevent catastrophic loss on one matchup with maximum 3-4 units per single game (correlated legs).

Example with Texans vs Jaguars: Texans spread -2.5 (3% edge, 1.5 units, +$30 payout), Texans total over 23.5 (2.5% edge, 1 unit, +$20 payout), Stroud passing yards over 285 (2% edge, 0.5 units, +$10 payout) equals total exposure of 3 units with +$60 potential. If all three hit you gain +$60 profit, if all three lose you lose -$60 profit (3% of $2,000 bankroll max loss which is acceptable).

Never do this: Texans spread (1.5 units) plus Texans total over (1 unit) plus Texans moneyline parlay (1 unit) plus Jaguars spread (1.5 units, opposite direction, not correlated) equals total of 5 units (too much, exceeds safe limit). For understanding parlay risks, check out NFL parlay bets explained.

Shurzy Tip: When stacking multiple bets on one game, add up your total unit exposure before placing anything. Cap it at 3-4 units maximum.

Unit Sizing During Variance Swings

Your bankroll will fluctuate so adjust unit sizes proportionally to maintain discipline:

Scenario A: Bankroll up 10% (Running hot) - Started at $1,000 with $20 per unit, after wins at $1,100 your new unit size is $22 per unit (1.1 times original) where bet sizing automatically increases proportionally. If you were betting 1.5 units ($30 before), now betting 1.5 units ($33 after) where benefit is compound gains naturally without needing to consciously adjust because proportional sizing does it.

Scenario B: Bankroll down 15% (Losing streak) - Started at $1,000 with $20 per unit, after losses at $850 your new unit size is $17 per unit (0.85 times original) where bet sizing automatically decreases proportionally. If you were betting 1.5 units ($30 before), now betting 1.5 units ($25.50 after) where benefit is protecting remaining capital through smaller losses during cold streak while maintaining 1.5% discipline without conscious thought.

Scenario C: Bankroll down 25% (Major loss) - Started at $1,000 with $20 per unit, after losses at $750 your new unit size is $15 per unit (0.75 times original) where bet sizing decreases materially. This is why variance reserve exists because you can still bet and maintain discipline. Consider tightening edge threshold where instead of betting 2%+ edge plays, only bet 3%+ edges to protect remaining capital and force selectivity. For recovery strategies, see NFL futures betting.

Unit Allocation Mistakes to Avoid

Mistake 1: Uniform sizing (1 unit on everything). Problem is it doesn't scale with edge where 1-2% edge deserves 0.5 units while 4-6% edge deserves 3 units, so flat sizing leaves money on the table. Fix: Scale units by edge magnitude using the matrix above.

Mistake 2: Oversizing after wins (variance amplification). Problem is you win 2 straight and feel invincible so you bet 3 units on next game, then lose 3 straight where bankroll crashes. Fix: Units scale with bankroll, not with emotions, so use proportional sizing where bankroll changes unit but unit doesn't change based on feelings.

Mistake 3: Too many correlated legs (10+ units per game). Problem is heavy same game parlay or parlay with 5-6 legs all adding units per game where one loss wipes 5-6% bankroll. Fix: Cap single-game exposure at 3-4 units maximum because simpler is safer.

Mistake 4: Scaling up unit too early (before profitability). Problem is after first profitable week you move from 1% to 2.5% units where next bad week destroys bankroll. Fix: Prove profitability for 2+ seasons before increasing unit size by moving from 1% to 1.5%, then to 2%, then to 2.5% with one jump per year. For tracking profitability, use strategies from how to spot trends in NFL betting.

The Unit Sizing Advantage

Two bettors with same $1,000 bankroll and same 55% accuracy over 13 playoff games show different results:

• Bettor A (random sizing): Bets $50 when confident and $5 when unsure where 7 wins at average $35 equals +$245 and 6 losses at average $25 equals -$150, resulting in +$95 (+9.5% ROI).
• Bettor B (unit-scaled sizing): Uses 0.5 units ($10) on 1-2% edges, 1 unit ($20) on 2-3% edges, 1.5 units ($30) on 3-4% edges, and 2+ units ($40+) on 4%+ edges. Same 7 wins and 6 losses but distributed mostly as 1.5-unit wins and mostly 1-unit losses, resulting in +$140 (+14% ROI).
• Difference: Plus 4.5% ROI just from proper unit scaling with same accuracy, proving unit sizing is where theoretical edge becomes actual profit.

Final Thoughts: Size by Math, Not Emotion

Unit sizing separates professional bettors from amateurs more than any other skill. You can have perfect handicapping but if you're betting 5% on gut feelings and 0.5% on strong statistical edges, you're doing it backwards.

Start with conservative 1.5-2% units, scale by edge magnitude using the matrix provided, cap exposure at 3-4 units per game, and adjust proportionally during variance swings. These aren't suggestions, they're requirements for long-term survival.

Print the unit matrix and reference it before every bet. Ask yourself: What's my edge? What's my confidence? How many units does that deserve? If you can't answer those questions, you don't bet. Simple as that.

Master unit sizing and you've completed the final piece of professional betting framework from bankroll through edge detection to position sizing. Everything else is just execution and discipline.

Shurzy Tip: The sharpest bettors in the world use unit-based sizing because it removes emotion and enforces discipline. Copy what works.

Read more: Line Movement in NFL Betting Explained

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