NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Pace of Play Rankings and Total Impact

Pace of play (how fast teams snap the ball and how many plays they run) is a quiet driver of Super Bowl totals: more plays = more chances to score or turn the ball over. In the Super Bowl LX field, Patriots and Broncos sit slightly above league average in plays per game, Rams are around average, and all four operate in the mid-20s seconds-per-snap range with no true "extreme" tempo outlier. This is your guide to pace-driven betting edges on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

Pace and Plays Per Game Snapshot

From 2025 pace and plays data:

Broncos

Plays per game: 62.9 (overall), 62.5 situation-neutral
Seconds per play (overall): around 29.2-30.8, putting them in the moderate/average tempo band

Rams

Plays per game: 62.4 overall, 59.8 situation-neutral, slightly below Denver but still near league mid-pack
Seconds per play: 28.54, a hair faster than many peers but not a true hurry-up offense

Patriots

In a mid-season eight-game sample, New England ran 186 first downs and 26.3 PPG, sitting around mid-table for total plays and showing balanced, efficient offense, not a deliberate slog or pure tempo team
League-wide plays-per-game tables place them in the mid-teens rank range, slightly above average in volume

Seahawks

Not explicitly called out at the very top for plays per game, but playoff scoring tables show 41.0 PPG in the postseason, meaning their games have featured either fast pace, high efficiency, or both
Regular-season pace numbers place them around the league middle in plays per game, with a pass rate near average (they aren't a hyper-run team or Air Raid outlier)

Big Picture:

None of the four plays glacially slow or true breakneck tempo. All cluster in the roughly 60-63 plays per game band with 28-31 seconds per snap, making efficiency, explosiveness and red-zone stats more important than raw pace alone for the Super Bowl total.

Shurzy Tip: All four teams run 60-63 plays per game. That's league average. Don't overthink pace for Super Bowl LX totals—focus on efficiency, not tempo.

How Pace Interacts with Totals for This Group

Given that pace differences are modest:

Totals will be shaped more by:

Offensive efficiency (EPA/play; Rams and Patriots are top-2 offenses in composite metrics)
Explosive play rates (Patriots, Seahawks, Rams are among the most explosive offensively)
Red-zone TD rates and defensive red-zone stops (Rams and Seahawks very strong on both sides)

Pace still matters at the margins:

Broncos slightly higher overall play volume (62.9) gives them a touch more opportunity to accumulate yardage and points in long, competitive games
Rams' slightly quicker seconds per play (28.54) support a balanced, efficient offense that can sustain drives without bleeding clock excessively

For Super Bowl LX totals:

You shouldn't expect a Cowboys-style track meet tempo or an old-school Titans slog. Instead, assume moderate pace with high efficiency if the passing games and explosive plays show up.

The best Over/Under edges will come from matchup factors (coverage, pass rush, red zone, explosive play prevention) layered on top of this "normal" pace, not from a major tempo mismatch.

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams face Patriots:

Rams: 62.4 plays per game, Patriots: mid-60s
Combined ~125 plays total
More plays = more scoring opportunities = Over 51.5 viable
But efficiency matters more than pace

If Broncos face Seahawks:

Broncos: 62.9 plays, Seahawks: ~62 plays
Combined ~125 plays
Pace neutral, focus on defensive matchups for total

Practical Betting Takeaways

Don't Over-Weight Pace Alone:

Treat all four as within a fairly normal tempo band and focus your total handicaps on offensive/defensive efficiency and explosive/red-zone profiles.

If You're Splitting Hairs Between Totals in Different Potential Matchups:

Broncos or Patriots involved: Slightly more plays per game and balanced offense can help Overs if defenses aren't elite.

Seahawks vs Rams: Two efficient, explosive offenses at average tempo; totals will hinge far more on defensive matchups and turnover expectations than on pace alone.

Championship Sunday Comparison:

Patriots-Broncos:

Combined plays: ~127 (both above average)
Slight pace edge for Over, but elite Broncos defense caps scoring
Total: 42.5-45.5 range

Rams-Seahawks:

Combined plays: ~124 (both near average)
Pace neutral, efficiency + explosives drive total
Total: 48.5-51.5 range

Pace and Game Script

Leading Teams Slow Pace:

When leading by 10+ points, teams:

Run 68% of plays (clock bleeds faster)
Seconds per play increases to 32-35 (slower tempo)
Total plays decrease by 6-8 per game

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams lead Patriots 17-7 at halftime:

Rams slow pace to protect lead (Kyren Williams runs)
2H Under gains value
Expect 28-32 2H plays (vs 34-38 average)

Trailing Teams Accelerate Pace:

When trailing by 10+ points, teams:

Pass 72% of plays (no-huddle, hurry-up)
Seconds per play decreases to 24-26 (faster tempo)
Total plays increase by 8-10 per game

Championship Sunday Application:

If Patriots trail Broncos 14-3 in Q2:

Patriots accelerate (Drake Maye no-huddle)
2H Over gains value
Expect 40-44 2H plays (vs 34-38 average)

Pace and Player Props

High-Pace Games Create:

QB passing attempts Overs (more plays = more attempts)
WR receptions Overs (more targets per game)
Team total Overs (more possessions = more scoring)

Championship Sunday Application:

If Broncos-Patriots becomes high-pace shootout (130+ combined plays):

Drake Maye Over 35.5 Passing Attempts (-110)
Jarrett Stidham Over 28.5 Passing Attempts (+120)
Both QBs passing yards Overs gain value

Low-Pace Games Create:

RB rushing attempts Overs (fewer plays = more runs)
Team total Unders (fewer possessions = less scoring)
Game Unders (clock management, fewer plays)

Championship Sunday Application:

If Seahawks-Rams becomes low-pace grind (115 combined plays):

Kenneth Walker III Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
Kyren Williams Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
Game Under 48.5 gains value

Pace vs Efficiency: What Matters More?

Historical Data:

Plays per game correlates 0.34 with total points scored (moderate correlation).

Points per play correlates 0.78 with total points scored (strong correlation).

Translation:

Efficiency matters 2.3x more than pace for predicting totals.

Championship Sunday Application:

Don't bet Rams-Patriots Over 51.5 just because both teams run 62-64 plays per game.

Bet Rams-Patriots Over 51.5 because:

Rams 6.2 points per drive (1st in NFL)
Patriots 5.8 points per drive (2nd in NFL)
Both offenses elite efficiency

Best Pace-Driven Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Pace Bet #1: Game Over 51.5 (-110) Rams vs Patriots

Confidence: High
Stake: 2-3 units

Not because of pace (both ~62 plays per game, average), but because of elite efficiency. Rams 6.2 points per drive + Patriots 5.8 points per drive = shootout.

Best Pace Bet #2: Drake Maye Over 35.5 Passing Attempts (-110) in High-Pace Script

Confidence: High (conditional on game script)
Stake: 1-2 units

If Patriots trail and accelerate pace (26 seconds per play), expect 40+ pass attempts. Monitor 1H pace before betting 2H.

Best Pace Bet #3: Kenneth Walker III Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-110) in Low-Pace Script

Confidence: High (conditional on game script)
Stake: 1-2 units

If Seahawks lead and slow pace (32+ seconds per play), expect 23+ carries for Walker. Monitor 1H score/pace.

Pace and Weather Impact

Cold Weather (Below 32°F):

Pace slows by 8-12%:

QBs take longer reads (frostbite risk on fingers)
Teams huddle more (keep players warm)
Average seconds per play: 31-34 (vs 28-30 normal)

Championship Sunday Application:

If Broncos home game at 20°F:

Expect 118-122 combined plays (vs 125 average)
Slightly favors Under
RB attempts Overs gain value (more runs, fewer passes)

Dome Games:

Pace increases by 4-6%:

Perfect conditions (no wind, no cold)
Teams play faster (optimal footing)
Average seconds per play: 26-28 (vs 28-30 normal)

Championship Sunday Application:

If Rams home game at SoFi Stadium (dome):

Expect 128-132 combined plays (vs 125 average)
Slightly favors Over
QB attempts Overs gain value

Pace and Timeout Usage

Teams with 3 Timeouts Remaining (Each Side) at 2:00 Warning:

Average 2H plays: 38-42 (higher pace maintained)

Teams with 0-1 Timeouts Remaining (Each Side) at 2:00 Warning:

Average 2H plays: 32-36 (clock management kills pace)

Championship Sunday Application:

Track timeout usage in 2H. If both teams have burned timeouts by Q3, expect:

Fewer 2H plays
2H Under gains value
Clock management becomes critical

Final Thoughts

Don't over-weight pace alone for this Super Bowl field. Treat all four as within a fairly normal tempo band (60-63 plays per game, 28-31 seconds per snap) and focus your total handicaps on offensive/defensive efficiency and explosive/red-zone profiles.

Pace matters at the margins, but efficiency matters 2.3x more. Bet Rams-Patriots Over because both offenses are elite, not because both teams run 62 plays per game.

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